Bitcoin is the only currency that stands out, while altcoins will continue to diverge

According to TradingView data, Bitcoin's market share has risen to 64.85%, rising for nine consecutive weeks and returning to the level of mid-January. ETF funds have seen a net inflow of more than $5 billion in the past 10 trading days, and MSTR has been buying heavily for two consecutive weeks. Bitcoin is eager to test the $100,000 mark.

On the other hand, altcoins have lost most of their losses in this rebound. StarEx exchange analysts believe that there is only short-term speculative demand for altcoins, and that investors rush to cash in profits and are unwilling to hold them for a long time. This state is likely to continue for a long time. The increasing number of altcoins, the continuous lifting of restrictions and cashing out, the slow progress of the ecosystem, and the low liquidity of funds in the currency circle have become the main reasons for the decline of altcoins.

What is the most likely pattern of the crypto market in 2025? StarEx exchange analysts believe that Bitcoin will continue to rise as the macro-financial environment becomes unstable, leading to institutions continuously increasing their holdings for risk aversion and its "digital gold" attribute. It is conceivable that it will break through $150,000 or even $200,000. After all, due to the uncertainty of Trump's policies in the United States and the panic of US dollar assets, the market value of physical gold has exceeded $22 trillion, while Bitcoin has a market value of less than $2 trillion, with greater room for growth. If the United States experiences an economic recession or even depression this year, long-term economic stagflation will cause a sharp depreciation of paper currency, and assets such as physical gold and Bitcoin will be sought after, with great potential for speculation.

However, altcoins will be in a state of differentiation for a long time. The increasing number of altcoins, the continuous lifting of restrictions on cashing out, and the slow progress of the ecosystem will require a long time to digest. There will not be a general altcoin season, only structural rebound opportunities and local hotspots.

Separately:

The opportunities of the SOL sector are still greater than those of the ETH ecosystem sector: not only because of the frequent appearance of some meme "golden dogs" in SOL, but also because the wealth effect and popularity of the entire SOL sector are richer. For example, hot concepts such as AI Agent are hyped from time to time, and tokens such as SOL, JUP, RAY, JTO, and LAYER have good rebound gaming opportunities every time the market falls, and the amplitude is often larger. However, due to the dispersion of liquidity, the project parties and users of Ethereum itself are torn apart, and each L2 fights on its own and is highly homogenized. Ethereum currently has no bright ecological potential, and the on-chain activities are deserted. The continuous inflation suppresses its price, forming a downward double helix. Unless a phenomenal application ecology emerges, this situation will not change well.

Structural opportunities still exist. For example, the recent rebound of AI Agent sector has recorded a good rebound, generally rising 3-5 times, such as ai16z, fartcoin, ava, arc, alch and other currencies. They have a commonality: relatively small market capitalization, full or large-scale circulation of chips, bottoming out after a round of plunge, and AI concept. Future strategies may be inclined to this type of sector, looking for those with small market capitalization and concepts, preferably SOL ecological tokens.

Tokens with actual products and applications have investment value, such as Ondo and Plume in the RWA sector, which show resistance to decline every time the market falls and increase more every time the market rises. Ondo and Plume are known as the first and second dragons of the RWA sector, and the RWA sector is an imaginative track in the currency circle, with a potential market size of up to one trillion US dollars.

Analysts at the StarEx exchange believe that the operational ideas for 2025 are: every time the Bitcoin market panics and falls, you can enter the market to buy at the bottom, and consider taking profits every time it rebounds by 20-30%; and every time the altcoin rebounds by about 50% with the market, you can reduce your position and consider shorting, especially those high-market-value vc altcoins that are continuously released from the ban.