Following our views in April, the prices of Bitcoin and global risk assets have bottomed out as expected this month. It is gratifying that Bitcoin has become the best performing US dollar asset after the recovery from the liquidity crisis for the first time in many years. As of the date of this month's report, the actual operating price center of Bitcoin has broken through the consolidation range in March.

Even if the past week is memorable in the entire history of US dollar assets, from the perspective of US dollar asset prices, this is most likely just a disturbance to the key support test of bull and bear markets. However, in the entire process of rising in the east and falling in the west, the entire process of this tariff will become a major turning point.

1/ This month's market has made many peers shout out the view that the bull market is over, but we firmly believe that the volatility of Bitcoin here just confirms the previous view that this round of market has only reached the halfway point. This is mainly based on the trend fitting relationship between Bitcoin and US dollar risk assets, the reason for the adjustment of the US dollar system at this moment, and the re-strengthening of long-term logic and the re-confirmation of the moderate macro-regulatory environment. 2/ The weakening of a large number of copycats represented by Ethereum is the main pessimistic support for the market at present. As always, we adhere to the view that Bitcoin and other crypto assets have been decoupled since April last year. The real macro-supported liquidity bull market has not yet arrived. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the huge uncertainty in the next round of capital flow path. 3/ Looking to the future, we believe that the high turnover range formed here has been broken, confirming that the market has entered a stage of re-consolidation and accumulation of momentum, but looking back at the historical trend of core US dollar assets such as AAPL

Bitcoin has fallen recently, but its status as a core asset of the US dollar has not been affected. With the trend of regulatory relaxation, US dollar assets are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend.

The current altcoin market is very similar to coal stocks around 2015 - production capacity is being cleared quickly, market enthusiasm is declining rapidly, negative or positive news can no longer trigger industry fluctuations, and it is also facing the bloodsucking of alternative sectors (DEX) in the eyes of the entire market. However, there is nothing new under the sun. The first principle of investment is always liquidity and cheapness. There are gold mines that have been mistakenly killed hidden in the ruins. We believe that high-quality projects are only waiting to be precipitated and shine in the industry's clearing.

1/ The climax of the market came to an abrupt end as expected, and the money-making effect in CEX returned to silence again within the month. Most of the undisputed rising targets we mentioned have returned to the starting point of the rise. At present, there is no substantial improvement in the liquidity of the US dollar, and large-scale copycats are still out of sight. 2/ The adjustments of MSTR and BTC within the month were very benign. The low volatility characteristics of Bitcoin in the new cycle mentioned in our previous special report are undoubtedly evident. Even with the negative news about Silk Road today, the supply of Bitcoin is still not large-scale, and the duration of this cycle may exceed the pessimistic expectations of some analysts in the current market. 3/ The hot sentiment on the chain has continued the overflow of CEX funds as always, but there is nothing new under the sun. The lack of money-making effect in CEX will inevitably affect the duration of this round of DEX market. As of the date of publication of this article, we believe that the overall hype of DEX targets has entered a potential exit again

Metrics Ventures, a secondary fund in the crypto market, December market observations: 1/ This month's market is turbulent. The huge momentum of Bitcoin has accelerated the pace of entry of many hesitant funds in the off-site market. At the same time, the strong old coins with scarce chips have obvious profit effects, which has driven a large number of bottom Alts to grab the chip vacuum upwards, but the actual profit disk in the on-site market is probably very few. Meme, which has accumulated a lot of popularity in the early stage, has already started consolidation early. 2/ As of the date of writing this article, the marginal effect of external events on crypto assets has been obviously weakening day by day. At the same time, MSTR and BTC have both shown high turnover signals at the top. Everything will follow the law of asset operation. There will always be an end and a climax for the undisputed rise. 3/ The new purchasing power mainly comes from the new funds in the retail market, which is incompatible with the logic that has been interpreted in the circle.