Metrics Ventures, a secondary fund in the crypto market, April market observations:
1/ The past week is memorable even in the entire history of US dollar assets. From the perspective of US dollar asset prices, this is most likely just a disturbance to the key support test of bull and bear markets. However, in the entire process of rising in the east and falling in the west, the entire process of this tariff will become a major turning point.
2/ We mentioned last month that the adjustments of MSTR and BTC are very benign, and the low volatility characteristics of Bitcoin in the new cycle are undoubtedly evident. Therefore, we are still optimistic about the performance of MSTR and BTC this year. The key support level of 75,000 has seen huge demand, accompanied by a large number of bottom divergence signals, which resonates with the bottoming out and rebound of US dollar assets, and will form a market trend at least on a weekly level.
3/ Current affairs are not something we discuss in our public monthly reports. Although this is an important part of the "bold assumptions" in our trading framework, standing at the end of this epic week, I think it is unnecessary to be overly pessimistic about potential further dollar disturbances in recent months. From a price perspective, the market has most likely passed the limit test.
Inventory and comments on the overall market situation and market trends:
In terms of the market, we would like to further emphasize in technical analysis that in the recent round of strong market divergence, the risk assets of the US dollar have released huge amounts of volume at relatively sufficient adjustment positions/bear market critical support levels. When the seven sisters broke through in batches, the trend of MSTR and BTC was obviously strong feedback. At the same time, we noticed the following divergence phenomenon:
① The obvious divergence between Bitcoin price and contract positions (Coinglass data):
②Divergence between Bitcoin’s own MACD and RSI:
Therefore, overall we believe that the limit test position is the recent low.
After experiencing the previous market climax, MSTR can still stably rank among the top ten in US stock trading volume every day. We believe that this also complies with the Ponzi scheme establishment hypothesis mentioned in our special report in October 24. In the future, it is expected that it will continue to absorb liquidity from US stocks and feed back to Bitcoin with new assets joining the BTC Ponzi scheme such as GME. This model is similar to the Oriental real estate stock gameplay that started 20 years ago.
RMB assets have also experienced the foreseeable limit test, which has also made more people understand the fact that the military, manufacturing, technology and population structure, which we began to talk about at the end of 24, are rising in the East and falling in the West. At this moment, the Shanghai Composite Index is still consolidating above the second gap. With the subsequent monetary policy easing in the East and the West, more investors are expected to discover the many trends in the Eastern economy in recent years, such as consumer brand upgrades and chip breakthroughs. Although the tariff incident can be seen as an impact on asset prices, it will become a clear acceleration event in the general trend of rising in the East and falling in the West many years later.
Finally, as market sentiment gradually calms down and VIX gradually falls, we want to say that at this moment, concerns about currency stability, sovereign stability, financial stability and asset security are exactly the scenarios that were set when Bitcoin was born nearly 20 years ago. The vision that was once held will not be transferred because of the transfer of pricing power, but whether the original intention is still there will also be truly revealed in 2025-2026.
This moment is just like that moment.
