Metrics Ventures, a secondary fund in the crypto market, released a March market observation guide:
1/ This month's market conditions have led many peers to call for the end of the bull market, but we firmly believe that the volatility of Bitcoin here just confirms the previous view that this round of market conditions has only reached the halfway point. This is mainly based on the trend fitting relationship between Bitcoin and US dollar risk assets, the reasons for the adjustment of the US dollar system at this moment, the re-strengthening of long-term logic, and the re-confirmation of the moderate macro-regulatory environment.
2/ The weakening of a large number of altcoins represented by Ethereum is the main pessimistic support for the market. As always, we adhere to the view of decoupling Bitcoin and other crypto assets since April last year. The real macro-supported liquidity bull market has not yet arrived. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the huge uncertainty in the next round of capital flow path.
3/ Looking ahead, we believe that the high turnover range formed here has been broken, confirming that the market has entered a period of re-consolidation and accumulation of momentum, but looking back at the historical trends of core US dollar assets such as AAPL, we believe that the real key support for Bitcoin is around 75,000, and there is no need to worry before that.
Inventory and comments on the overall market situation and market trends:
One of our core focus indicators for Bitcoin's current trend is Bitcoin's positioning as a risky asset in the US dollar system. The effectiveness of this observation is due to the fact that the switching of core assets in the US dollar system has always been gradual and driven by macro, regulatory, fundamental and other factors. Specifically, the following trend indicators we have observed are still strong:
① Bitcoin still has a clear advantage in Sharpe ratio over the Nasdaq and other "Seven Sisters" assets, and the resilience of Bitcoin has been verified again in a series of factors such as tariffs;
② The loosening of chips on the chain is not serious, especially in the release of negative news, it shows a stronger signal of acceptance rather than a signal of collapse, and the supply has not increased out of control;
③ From a regulatory perspective, we believe that the recent series of regulatory actions are significant long-term positive cornerstones. The market’s lack of understanding of the U.S. political and economic system is the main source of irrational fluctuations and will not change the long-term positive trend.
Combined with Bessent’s recent indication of the pace of risk release for the entire US dollar, we firmly believe that the mid-term adjustment cycle starting in February is an excellent opportunity to build positions in the next 15 months.
Finally, in our opinion, the industry's liquidation has finally entered a rapid period. If the liquidation period can resonate with emotions at a fast and strong amplitude, it may just catch up with the next macro liquidity bull market. However, we still need to remind you that the capital flow path of the next bull market may be completely different from that of 21 years. Therefore, the existing so-called crypto assets need to be extremely cautious from a long-term holding perspective.
Figure: The strength and weakness relationship between BTC and Nasdaq in the past three years
