Metrics Ventures, a secondary fund in the crypto market, has released a summary of its May market observations:
1/ Following our views in April, the prices of Bitcoin and global risk assets have bottomed out as expected this month. It is gratifying that Bitcoin has become the best performing US dollar asset after the recovery from the liquidity crisis for the first time in many years. As of the date of this month's report, the actual operating price center of Bitcoin has broken through the consolidation range in March.
2/ Looking at the whole month, after the huge turnover in the past three months, Bitcoin has actually entered a state of supply exhaustion, and the turnover of long and short interweaving has always been moderate. From the perspective of market sentiment, a large number of market traders are shorting the market and altcoins, which is also in line with the peak judgment made by a large number of old coin circle people based on basic chip theory and trading habits such as emotions.
3/There is no need to say much about altcoins. Although some newly listed tokens and old powerful altcoins represented by SUI have tried to increase prices, the overall performance is still unsatisfactory. Before the arrival of new liquidity and emotional climax, it is hard to say whether the money-making effect will return again. We are also seeing that more and more crypto-related assets choose to embrace SPACs, listings and other liquidity acquisition channels in trading venues such as Nasdaq. It is foreseeable that the capital flow path in the next round of liquidity cycle has quietly changed, and the existing old altcoins are facing more severe challenges.
Review and comments on the overall market situation and market trends:
This month's market is very important. In the process of volatility convergence after large fluctuations, the strength and weakness of assets often represent trend changes, and the strength of Bitcoin has exceeded the expectations of many participants. However, we believe that this period of time has precisely explained several very important things: 1/ Bitcoin still has no concentrated selling pressure problem. Currently, most of the clearing is the old currency circle and the floating chips for trading. Therefore, the end of the cycle should be based on the exhaustion and inflection point of liquidity, which runs counter to the actual trend of global liquidity at present;
2/MicroStrategy's first quarter report in 2025 heralded a miracle in the history of capital pools. We believe that this is something that the market does not understand. To put it simply, MicroStrategy raised $7.7 billion in the first quarter of 2025 through direct additional issuance, issuance of traded bonds, convertible bonds and other methods, which is higher than the $4.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. During the same period, MicroStrategy became one of the strongest dollar risk assets when the U.S. stock market fell sharply, and its transaction volume has long been in the top ten of U.S. stocks, which is astonishing. What is even more surprising is that, judging from the results, this is a stock that the entire market welcomes to reduce holdings and increase issuance, which can be called a miracle in the history of human capital. The market significantly underestimates MicroStrategy's actual financing and purchasing power, and the existing arrogance and prejudice will bring greater emotional reversal possibilities in the future;
3/If we believed that the pricing power was just being "transferred" in 2024, at this moment, we can conclude that the handover of pricing power has been completed, most of the so-called old cryptocurrency analysis frameworks will be eliminated, and research on asset attributes, the US dollar cycle, and the laws of asset operation will be more rewarded by the market. The liquidity circulation path of the cryptocurrency circle will also confirm the above conclusions in the next round of high sentiment.
In general, we are very optimistic about the future trend of BTC. On the one hand, this is based on the inevitability of an increase in the slope of liquidity growth, and on the other hand, it comes from the divergence between the actual trend and the understanding of market participants.
Speaking of copycats, we also believe that the current new copycat operation model linked to the U.S. stock market will be the highlight of the next round of sentiment overflow cycle, and deserves the attention of all peers.
Finally, let's briefly talk about our views on RMB assets. The RMB's gorgeous turn from the fundamental level will slowly let the world know, just like the J-10CE's brilliant performance in the India-Pakistan conflict, which will also gradually set off the RMB assets to a new upward channel, with the bottom constantly raised. The price here deviates from the fundamentals due to the inertia of long-term bearishness, which is exactly the best layout range. Global easing is imminent, and the high-profile financial voice that just ended is an important signal. Don't get lost in the chaotic American series. The global central banks have actually made their choices.
To some extent, BTC in the eyes of crypto industry professionals is just like A-shares in the eyes of the Chinese people. What we want to say is exactly the same. We use a poem as our summary of the past market trends of the two major MVC heavy-weight industries and our outlook for the future:
Red, orange, yellow, green, blue, and purple, who is holding the colorful streamers dancing in the sky? After the rain, the setting sun returns, and the mountains and passes are green. In those days, the fierce battle left holes in the village wall. Decorating this mountain and pass, it looks even better today.
