As the US debt crisis approaches, BTC will hit a new high

Since Trump took office, the global capital market has experienced turbulence, gold has been forced to rise, and U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds and the U.S. dollar have all been hit hard. After experiencing a wave of panic declines, Bitcoin has once again risen above $90,000, showing its tenacity.

StarEx Exchange analysts believe that tariffs have triggered bond market fragility, and it is no coincidence that Bitcoin has reached a new high. It is by no means a mere accumulation of ETF liquidity, nor is it another short-lived outbreak of speculative frenzy. The real driving force comes from a deeper and more systematic risk reassessment process - the fragility of the bond market is being exposed, and this process is just ignited by the new round of US tariff policies.

It all started when Trump proposed to restore the tariff policy. He reignited the protectionist narrative of "Made in America" and claimed to rebuild the competitiveness of the domestic manufacturing industry by significantly raising import taxes on Chinese products. This resurgence of trade protectionism quickly intensified market concerns about future inflation. Unlike 2018, the macro background this time is that the US debt has long been out of control, the fiscal deficit has been off the charts every year, and the Fed's room for raising interest rates has been squeezed out by high leverage.

When tariffs, an inflation catalyst, were thrown into the market, the reaction occurred quickly in the bond market. Investors began to re-examine the risk characteristics of U.S. Treasury bonds. An intuitive indicator is that the MOVE index (an indicator that measures the volatility of the U.S. Treasury market) has soared to its highest point since the banking crisis in 2023. Treasury bonds, as the world's largest "risk-free asset", are based on the delicate balance between U.S. fiscal and monetary policies. Once fiscal policy is unsustainable and monetary policy has to cover the bottom, the so-called "risk-free" becomes an empty talk.

The sharp fluctuations of the MOVE index are actually an anonymous threatening letter from the market: If the path is not changed, even US bonds will start to be discounted. Primary dealers began to demand higher yields in auctions, and the market demand for long-term bonds became extremely fragile. This is why the US Treasury had to resume the so-called "Treasury bond repurchase program" - the Bessent policy, as a response to market panic. It tried to stabilize long-term interest rates and reduce the selling pressure of long-term bonds through a short-term repurchase mechanism, but to put it bluntly, this is no different from printing money in disguise.

The problem is that this policy can only ease liquidity but cannot restore confidence. When a market anchor is questioned, all prices will begin to drift. At this moment, global capital begins to look for a new "anchor" - an anchor that does not rely on sovereignty, credit ratings, or central bank operations. This anchor is gold and Bitcoin.

Analysts at StarEx Exchange believe that the reason why Bitcoin has regained its high point at this moment is not because investors have suddenly become "greedy", but because they have suddenly realized that even U.S. bonds have begun to waver, so what assets are truly safe?

The market is no longer the "central bank-backed" market of the 2010s. Now is an "era without faith." Bitcoin's decentralization, anti-censorship, and scarcity, which were once considered "narrative bubbles," have now become real hedging tools. Especially after the opening of channels for ETF products in the United States, Bitcoin can be incorporated into the traditional asset allocation system with higher efficiency and is no longer a "self-entertainment" of the crypto circle. It has begun to have a real systemic hedging function.

When national debt becomes as volatile as high-yield corporate bonds, and when fiscal deficits become the default rather than the unexpected, Bitcoin stops being an “alternative asset” and starts being a “mainstream heresy.” This is exactly what we see in 2025.

Bitcoin is hitting new highs not because the world is safer, but because the risks in the world are more real. It is not a symbol of prosperity, but a pricing tool for distrust. Every bond market fluctuation, every fiscal policy compromise, and every escalation of the trade war are fuel for Bitcoin's rise.

This is today’s reality: a world of unbalanced policies, a world where trust is scarce, and a world where debt is monetized — precisely the source of Bitcoin’s biggest bull run.