Next week's macro outlook: CPI data may trigger stagflation trading script, BTC may face $100,000 support test

PANews reported on May 10 that Bitcoin returned to above $100,000 this week. Wall Street was cautious at the end of this week's trading day. U.S. stocks and bonds fluctuated as the world's two largest economies prepared to launch trade negotiations, and investors avoided making higher-risk bets. Market optimism continued to put pressure on gold prices. Gold prices fell nearly 4% on Wednesday and Thursday, but rebounded on Friday, up 2.64% last week. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

At 22:25 on Monday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler delivered a speech;

At 20:30 on Tuesday, the US April unadjusted CPI annual rate/seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate/seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate/unadjusted core CPI annual rate;

At 05:40 on Thursday, 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will participate in a fireside chat;

At 20:30 on Thursday, the U.S. retail sales monthly rate in April, the U.S. PPI annual rate/monthly rate in April, and the U.S. New York Fed/Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in May;

At 20:40 on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered an opening speech at an event;

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve held its second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, which will focus on monetary policy and economic research and is expected to provide academic perspectives for the Federal Reserve's five-year monetary policy framework review.

At 22:00 on Friday, the preliminary value of the US one-year inflation rate forecast for May and the preliminary value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for May will be released.

The Fed's voice this week was not dovish. More than half of the Fed's policymakers gave public speeches on Friday, and no policymaker said the Fed was close to cutting interest rates. Next week's economic data will provide an important perspective. The US CPI for April, released on Tuesday, will provide a new interpretation of inflation trends, while the April retail sales data released on Thursday will be the latest window into consumer spending. The US CPI for April is expected to confirm that price pressures are still too high and there is no reason to cut interest rates for the time being. Although the US dollar index has risen in the short term, it is still facing selling pressure due to the risk of stagflation caused by continued tariffs. In addition, the impact of macro data on Bitcoin prices and whether Bitcoin can consolidate the $100,000 price support range are also worth paying attention to.