By Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer, Bitwise

Compiled by: Luffy, Foresight News

Earlier this month, I gave the closing speech at the end of the first day of a national brokerage conference.

This in itself is noteworthy. The Big Four brokerages (Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and UBS) handle over $10 trillion in client assets, and these platforms have yet to make Bitcoin ETFs easily accessible to their advisors. But as the keynote invitation I received suggests, this is changing rapidly.

In fact, I expect all four major brokerages to have Bitcoin ETFs by the end of this year. This is one reason why I still expect Bitcoin ETFs to set a new record for net inflows this year, even though they have seen “only” $3.7 billion in net inflows so far in 2025 compared to $35 billion in 2024.

I am not writing this article to discuss brokerage issues. Instead, I want to share a listener's story.

If everyone stops believing in Bitcoin, what will I have left?

The best part of a presentation is often at the end. You walk off the stage, hopefully to applause, and are usually surrounded by people who want to ask follow-up questions. Those are the best questions.

After the event, one person waited patiently for the other 20 or 30 people to finish asking questions. Then he said:

"I listened to what you said and it made sense to me. But I just couldn't get over the psychological barrier."

This is a very common sentiment. People understand the rationale for investing in Bitcoin and find it attractive, but there is always something stopping them from buying.

After diving deeper into his concerns, we figured out what that “something” was: He was worried about what would happen to Bitcoin if everyone stopped believing in it.

“If the ‘music’ stops, how much will Bitcoin be worth?” he asked.

The answer, of course, is worthless. If no one in the world wants to hold Bitcoin, then Bitcoin is worth zero.

I pointed out that the same is true for gold and other assets, but he insisted that it was different. Maybe he was right, in that with gold you at least have the shiny object; with Bitcoin you really have nothing.

To be honest, I’ve had the same thought before, and I suspect most Bitcoin investors have too, the non-physical nature of Bitcoin is indeed a challenge.

My advice: Write it down

As my new friend prepared to leave, still with a confused look on his face, I asked him a simple question: What would it take? In other words, how could he believe that Bitcoin would continue to exist?

For some people, their answer to this question will make them realize that they will never buy Bitcoin. If you are waiting for Bitcoin to become more popular than gold... or waiting for its volatility to approach zero... then you will never buy Bitcoin.

But if you don’t have those obstacles, it’s worth asking seriously: What would it take?

Is it institutional custody? Today, public companies like Coinbase and well-known institutions like Fidelity are custodial Bitcoin, and financial giants like Bank of New York Mellon are following closely.

Is it institutional trading? Today, Bitwise does crypto trading business with established firms like Jane Street and Cumberland/DRW.

Is it institutional adoption? Today, nine of the world’s ten largest hedge funds hold Bitcoin, along with Emory University (with an $11 billion endowment), the Teachers’ Retirement System of Texas (with $210 billion in assets under management), and investment giants like Ray Dalio and Stan Druckenmiller, among many others.

Is it the involvement of large asset management companies? Are companies like BlackRock and Invesco enough?

Is it corporate adoption? Strategy, Block, Tesla, and more than 80 other listed companies are involved.

Is it accessibility? There are already Bitcoin ETFs.

Is it an investment model adoption? BlackRock now recommends that investors allocate 2% of their portfolio to Bitcoin.

Is it regulatory stability? Legislation related to market structure is expected to pass Congress this year.

Government adoption? The United States is building a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Whatever it is, write it down. Because if we look back a few years ago, we thought that some things, like the U.S. government holding Bitcoin or the world's largest asset managers accepting this asset, seemed far-fetched, but now we are seeing these things happening.

My friend thought for a moment, took a deep breath, and then said, “I’m going to buy Bitcoin.”

I think many people will come to the same conclusion this year.