Author: Luke, Mars Finance

Introduction: The Eve of the Storm in the Technology Earnings Season

On April 21, 2025, the U.S. tech stock earnings season kicked off like a drumbeat, the global market held its breath, and cryptocurrency traders were even more nervous. This week, more than 120 S&P 500 companies will release their first quarter (January to March) earnings reports for fiscal year 2025. Tesla (April 22), Google's parent company Alphabet (April 24), and Intel (April 24) of the "Magnificent 7" (Mag7) will be the first to release their earnings reports, followed by Microsoft, Meta, Broadcom (April 30), Apple, and Amazon (May 1), and Nvidia is expected to be the finale on May 28. This earnings feast is not only the focus of Wall Street, but also like a stone thrown into the lake of the crypto market, causing ripples.

For crypto traders, tech earnings are not just some distant financial term, but a direct trigger for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The rise and fall of U.S. tech stocks affects the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices, and crypto assets often follow suit.

  • In the second quarter of 2020, strong financial reports from Apple and Microsoft pushed up the Nasdaq by 6.8%, and Bitcoin broke through $10,000;
  • In the first quarter of 2022, Meta's weak performance dragged the Nasdaq down 4.2%, and Bitcoin fell 15% in response.

The Trump administration's upcoming semiconductor tariff policy has added gloom to the market. Details are expected to be announced before May 7, which may push up chip costs and affect Bitcoin mining hardware and blockchain infrastructure.

At the same time, the US dollar index fell below 98, hitting a three-year low, gold soared to $3,400, Trump threatened to fire Fed Chairman Powell, and the market smelled a signal of interest rate cuts - CME data showed that the probability of a rate cut in June exceeded 75%. In this wave of safe-haven asset craze, Bitcoin broke through $87,000, igniting the enthusiasm of traders. This week's technology stock earnings will become a weather vane for the crypto market, and traders must keep their eyes open and grasp the pulse.

Why do technology stocks’ earnings reports affect the crypto market?

The financial reports of US tech stocks are like a mirror, reflecting the pulse of the global economy and also touching the nerves of the crypto market. For traders, these financial reports are not only a barometer of corporate performance, but also a key signal that affects position decisions. The following analyzes its far-reaching significance from four dimensions.

1. Resonance between the US stock market and the crypto market

The seven tech giants—Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla—have a total market value of more than $12.5 trillion, accounting for nearly half of the Nasdaq 100 index. Their financial reports directly affect the U.S. stock market, and the crypto market is highly synchronized with the U.S. stock market. According to CoinDesk data, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index averaged 0.75 between 2020 and 2024, and the rise and fall of technology stocks is like a baton for crypto assets. In the second quarter of 2020, Apple and Microsoft's better-than-expected financial reports pushed the Nasdaq up 6.8%, and Bitcoin soared 20% to break the $10,000 mark. On the contrary, in the first quarter of 2022, Meta's advertising revenue declined, causing the Nasdaq to plummet 4.2%, and Bitcoin fell from $45,000 to $39,000. In the third quarter of 2024, Nvidia and Amazon's weak financial reports dragged the Nasdaq down 2.7%, and Ethereum fell to $2,200. This week, Tesla and Alphabet's financial reports may stir up trouble again, and traders need to be wary of market chain reactions.

2. The intersection of AI and blockchain

AI and cloud computing are the growth engines of technology giants, and they also inject vitality into the blockchain and Web3 ecosystem. The revenue growth rates of Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, and Google Cloud reflect the enthusiasm of enterprises to invest in decentralized technologies (such as NFT and DeFi). In June 2024, AWS revenue increased by 18.7% and Google Cloud increased by 29%, but both were lower than expected, dragging down BTC and ETH by 8% and 12%, respectively. This quarter, traders will focus on AI monetization capabilities (such as Microsoft Copilot's enterprise adoption rate and Google Gemini's progress) and capital expenditures. In 2025, the seven giants' AI investment is expected to reach $331 billion, which may promote the construction of blockchain infrastructure, such as on-chain AI models and decentralized computing power markets. However, the low-cost breakthrough of China's AI model DeepSeek has caused the market to question the return on high computing power investment, causing Nvidia's market value to evaporate by $590 billion on January 27, and Bitcoin fell by more than 5% in a single day. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest said: "The rise of DeepSeek may reduce the demand for AI hardware, but the distributed computing power of blockchain still has long-term potential." The financial report will reveal the prospects for synergy between AI and blockchain and affect the valuation of crypto assets.

3. Semiconductor tariffs and hardware costs

Trump's semiconductor tariff policy has sown concerns for the crypto market. On April 13, Trump announced that the tariff rate will be announced next week, and GPUs and chip manufacturing equipment will face a 10% baseline tariff. The financial reports of Intel, Broadcom and Nvidia will reflect supply chain pressures, which may push up the cost of Bitcoin mining hardware and blockchain servers. TSMC's 2-nanometer chip costs may rise by 10-20% due to tariffs, increasing the price of mining machines. Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy warned: "If tariffs push up GPU costs, Bitcoin miners' profits will be under pressure, which may drag down BTC prices in the short term." Traders need to pay attention to the tariff response signals in Intel's financial report, and whether the cost pressure of blockchain hardware is mentioned.

4. Macroeconomic turbulence and risk aversion

The global business of technology giants is an economic barometer that affects the risk sentiment of the crypto market. Apple's iPhone sales and Tesla's delivery volume reflect consumer demand, while Meta and Alphabet's advertising revenues measure corporate confidence. At present, the macro environment is becoming more turbulent: the US dollar index fell below 98, hitting a new low in March 2022, gold broke through $3,400, and Trump's threat to fire Powell triggered a crisis of independence of the Federal Reserve. Although Republican Congressman Kennedy expressed support for the independence of the central bank, CME showed that the probability of a rate cut in June has exceeded 75%.

As a "hard inflation asset", Bitcoin took advantage of the situation to break through $87,000. Arthur Hayes lamented: "This may be the last chance for BTC to be below $100,000!" In the first quarter of 2022, Meta's weak financial report dragged down the Nasdaq, and Bitcoin plummeted 15%; in 2020, Microsoft's strong performance pushed up the market, and Bitcoin took advantage of the momentum to rise. Citi strategist Scott Chronert pointed out that the financial report will reveal the degree of pricing of tariffs and recession risks, providing key guidance for crypto traders.

The Undercurrent of Trump’s Semiconductor Tariffs

The Trump administration's semiconductor tariff policy is expected to announce details by May 7 at the latest. It may cover chip manufacturing equipment, raw materials and finished chips, pushing up costs for Intel, Broadcom and Nvidia, and affecting downstream companies such as Apple and Microsoft. In January 2025, tariff concerns caused Nvidia and TSMC's stock prices to fall by 16% and 13%, respectively, while Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by more than 8% during the same period. For crypto traders, the impact of tariffs goes far beyond stock fluctuations. Rising prices for Bitcoin mining hardware may squeeze miners' profits and increase network difficulty; increased blockchain server costs may hinder the deployment of decentralized applications (dApps). Industry insiders analyzed: "If tariffs push up GPU prices, small miners will be eliminated, BTC may be under pressure in the short term, but it will benefit centralized mining pools in the long run."

Potential effects of tariffs include:

  • Hardware costs: The cost of 2-nanometer chips has risen by 10-20%, pushing up the prices of mining and blockchain equipment.
  • Supply chain adjustments: Companies may relocate production to the United States, which is good for blockchain infrastructure stocks (such as Hut 8) in the short term.
  • Market volatility: Unclear tariff guidance could exacerbate crypto asset sell-offs and test traders’ risk management.

Intel's earnings report this week will provide an early signal of the impact of tariffs, and Nvidia's earnings report on May 28 will further reveal the response strategies for AI chips and blockchain hardware. JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy warned: "Tariff uncertainty may lead to conservative guidance from technology giants, and the crypto market needs to prepare for volatility."

Macro Background for Earnings Season

1. DeepSeek and the AI craze: a sober reflection

DeepSeek's low-cost AI breakthrough overturned the expectation of computing power dependence. On January 27, Nvidia's market value evaporated by nearly $600 billion, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta lost more than $400 billion in total, and Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by more than 5% in a single day. Meta CEO Zuckerberg said that he was studying the integration of DeepSeek technology, but more computing power was needed. For crypto traders, the AI craze is closely related to blockchain: decentralized computing power platforms (such as Render Network) may benefit from the shift in AI investment. Cathie Wood predicted: "Blockchain will play a key role in AI infrastructure." The financial report will test how the giants balance AI investment and cost optimization, and Nvidia's guidance will directly affect blockchain computing power stocks.

2. Mag7’s valuation and market pressure

In 2025, Mag7's earnings growth is expected to slow to 18%, down from 34% in 2024. Microsoft and Meta fell more than 10%, Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia fell more than 20%, and Tesla plummeted more than 40%. The InvestingPro model shows that Tesla and Apple's stock prices are above fair value. Wedbush expects that tariff uncertainty has made executives reluctant to provide clear guidance, which may exacerbate the sell-off in the crypto market. If the financial report is not as expected, Bitcoin may fall below $80,000 and test key support levels.

Conclusion

The U.S. tech earnings season is like a storm, sweeping Wall Street and shaking the crypto market. The performance of Tesla, Alphabet, and Intel will set the tone for the fate of Mag7, and Trump's semiconductor tariffs may reshape chip costs and blockchain hardware prices. Historically, tech earnings have repeatedly ignited or extinguished the enthusiasm of the crypto market: the rising wave in 2020 and the plummeting haze in 2022 remind traders that earnings reports are a pulse that cannot be ignored.

The crypto market is standing at a crossroads. The returns on AI investments, the resilience of the semiconductor supply chain, the upsurge in expectations of interest rate cuts, and the undercurrent of recession risk will all emerge in the financial reports. Dan Ives of Wedbush optimistically predicted: "The AI party has just begun." But Scott Chronert of Citi warned: "The financial reports will reveal the truth about the risks." Traders need to keep a close eye on this week's financial reports, review their positions, and capture opportunities in the undercurrent of volatility.