As the gray rhino of the U.S. debt credit crisis lingers, how can we use Bitcoin options to build risk defenses?

The global financial market in 2025 is facing a historic turning point. The 36 trillion U.S. dollar debt is like a rampaging gray rhino, with the triple nuclear explosion effect of debt, leverage and political games, tearing the traditional safe-haven system to pieces. How can ordinary coin friends build their own defenses in the face of a credit crisis? Bitcoin options provide a good weapon tool.

1. US debt crisis: triple nuclear explosion is tearing apart the global market

The US debt credit crisis and its solution to monetizing US debt seem to be slowly igniting a nuclear powder keg, and the global market could be blown to ashes at any time.

The first nuclear explosion: the collapse of the $1.2 trillion leveraged meat grinder. Wall Street's carefully designed "spot long + futures short" basis trading, which leveraged $1.2 trillion with 300 times leverage, collapsed in April. The 10-year US Treasury bond and SOFR spread dropped from -43.86 to -60.33 in two weeks, triggering a forced liquidation of $230 billion in positions in a single day, forming a death spiral of "selling → yield surge → more selling". This collapse directly caused the 30-year US Treasury bond yield to break through 5%, creating the largest fluctuation since the 1987 stock market crash.

The second nuclear explosion: the silent uprising of global central banks. The three major U.S. debt holders, China, Japan and the United Kingdom, have sold off for six consecutive quarters, and the proportion of overseas holdings has plummeted from 50% to 25%. The proportion of gold reserves in Saudi Arabia, Brazil and other countries has increased to 18%, the share of RMB cross-border payments has increased to 41%, and the allocation ratio of U.S. debt by Japanese life insurance companies has dropped to the lowest level since 2009. According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, the peak of maturing debts of $6 trillion will be ushered in in June, exceeding the total of special government bonds for the epidemic from 2020 to 2022.

The third nuclear explosion: policy nuclear bombs trigger stagflation. Trump's 125% tariff on China has caused a 34% surge in US import costs, a backlog of 500,000 TEUs of goods at the Port of Los Angeles, and a year-on-year CPI surge of 6% in March. The policy uncertainty index has reached 540 (close to the peak of the 2008 crisis), forcing the market to re-evaluate the pricing logic of the "risk-free interest rate". The Federal Reserve is in a dilemma: the core PCE price index is still at 2.8%, and interest rate cuts may aggravate inflation; maintaining high interest rates will consume $1.2 trillion per year in interest expenses, equivalent to burning $3.28 billion per day.

In May and June, U.S. Treasury bonds will soon reach the first critical time point of monetization (i.e. the Federal Reserve printing money and buying bonds), and the market will face a huge test.

2. Bitcoin options: a precise defensive weapon in times of crisis

When the correlation between traditional assets fails, Bitcoin options become a core tool for combating tail risks due to their asymmetric returns and volatility premium characteristics.

1. Protective bearishness: Putting bulletproof vests on assets For every bitcoin spot you hold, you can buy a put option with an exercise price 5% lower than the market price (premium of about 8-12%). When the price falls below the exercise price, the option income can offset 60% of the principal loss, just like setting up an airbag for the position. This strategy helped institutional investors reduce losses of more than $1.2 billion during the collapse of U.S. bonds in April.

2. Collar strategy: the survival rule of balanced offense and defense Assuming the cost price of Bitcoin is 70,000, through the combination of "buying 65,000 put options + selling 75,000 call options", the 10% downside space is locked at zero cost, retaining the 11% upside potential. BlackRock data shows that the inflow of funds for Bitcoin ETFs using this strategy has exceeded 10 billion US dollars, setting a historical record.

3. Straddle options: Harvest the market panic premium and simultaneously buy at-the-money call and put options to bet on drastic price fluctuations. On April 6, the single-day Bitcoin option trading volume exceeded US$20 billion, and the put/call ratio (PCR) reached 1.8. The single-day return of this type of strategy exceeded 300%.

3. Three-dimensional defense: a data-driven guide to crisis survival <br/>Under the shadow of the U.S. debt crisis, a three-layer dynamic defense system needs to be built:

1. Asset Allocation Pyramid • Core layer (40%): Bitcoin spot (anti-inflation) + gold (traditional safe-haven) + short-term US Treasury bonds (liquidity)

• Mobile layer (30%): straddles (volatility arbitrage) + energy stocks (stagflation hedge)

• Cash layer (30%): Stablecoins (instant liquidity) + offshore RMB (geo-hedging)

2. Key indicator monitoring system • On-chain whale movements: An address holding more than 1,000 bitcoins has recently increased its holdings by 120,000 bitcoins, often indicating a bottom signal

• US Treasury auction failure rate: emergency hedging needs to be initiated when the 5% warning line is breached

• Bitcoin/gold price ratio: currently 1:18. If it breaks through 1:20, it will mark the entry of crypto assets into the sovereign allocation stage.

3. The art of dynamic position shifting When the implied volatility (IV) falls from a high level to a low level, the out-of-the-money contract of the current month can be moved to a deeper out-of-the-money price of the next month. For example, close a position of 70,000 and sell a put contract, and switch to 60,000 and sell a put contract, and continue to reap the dividend of time value decay.

4. Reconstruction of order: the code for wealth leap in crisis

When BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF attracted more than 10 billion US dollars in a single month, and when the scale of USDT holdings of US Treasury bonds exceeded 400 billion, these signals revealed a cruel reality: Bitcoin is becoming a "flood channel" for the collapse of US Treasury bonds.

Historical experience shows that every sovereign currency crisis is an opportunity for the rise of new asset classes.

The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 gave rise to the gold bull market, and the dollar confidence crisis in 2025 may be crowning Bitcoin. Holding the "volatility scepter" of options, investors are not only defending against risks, but also participating in a subversive reconstruction of the wealth order.

However, we still need to remind you of the risks of Bitcoin. Bitcoin option strategies require strict position control, and the investment in a single strategy should not exceed 5% of the total funds. Historical data does not represent future returns. The market is risky and decisions must be made with caution. It is digital gold that resists inflation, and it is also a high-risk cryptocurrency. How to use it to build crisis defenses is a delicate technical job.

Welcome to leave a message to discuss your "anti-fragility" methods for Bitcoin options, and work together to face the impact of the upcoming gray rhino of the US debt crisis.