The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
Written by: 0xWeilan
This week, BTC opened at $101,217.78 and closed at $102,563.00, up 1.34% for the week with an amplitude of 9.82%, once again attacking the $90,000 to $108,000 range, with trading volume moderately increasing.
US President Trump, who is known for his decisiveness, began issuing intensive instructions this week, boosting trading sentiment and pushing BTC to a record high.
However, the yen rate hike, as well as traders' concerns about the expected rate hikes and the chaos that Trump's policies may cause, have meant that the U.S. stock and crypto markets have yet to find new market conditions and trading logic.
BTC and Altcoin representative Sol still maintain a stronger trend than the Nasdaq, but BTC's complete breakthrough of the $90,000 to $108,000 range still requires the gradual establishment of Trump 2.0's trading logic and the further fading of macro uncertainties.
Macro-financial and economic data
On the 20th, Eastern Time, Trump was sworn in and set a record for the most presidential executive orders signed by a US president on his first day in office.
The part involving crypto assets includes: establishing the development of cryptocurrencies as a priority; establishing a cryptocurrency working group to propose new digital asset regulatory regulations and explore the possibility of establishing a national cryptocurrency reserve; and granting amnesty to Ross Ulbricht, who founded the Silk Road and used BTC on a large scale.
Combined with the release of MEME coins by Trump and his wife before his inauguration, the market has no doubt about Trump's determination in the field of cryptocurrency. This is why BTC can consolidate at a high level and continue to try new highs in an uncertain macro-financial environment. $90,000 to $108,000 can be regarded as the pricing of Trump's crypto-friendly policies. After this pricing is completed, the subsequent momentum of BTC's rise is still unclear.
On January 24, the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point rate hike to 0.50%, making the world's fourth largest economy the only major economy to raise interest rates against the trend. Although within expectations, the rate hike still triggered market concerns about the loss of liquidity.
On January 23, Trump publicly called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but he did not say much about tariffs before and after. This caused the US dollar to plummet, closing at 107.45 on Friday. Gold rose for five consecutive days, closing at $2,770.89 per ounce, close to its historical high.
Long-end and short-end treasury bonds remained relatively stable, with little increase or decrease.
In the US stock market, the Nasdaq, Dow Jones and S&P 500 rose by 1.65%, 2.15% and 1.74% respectively, all close to historical highs. In contrast, BTC hit a record high, but was sold off over the weekend.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
As U.S. stocks rebounded, funds continued to flow into the crypto market through the BTC Spot ETF channel, with a total inflow of US$1.755 billion for the week.
The stablecoin channel performed even better, with an inflow of 5.381 billion for the week, of which 975 million was USDT outflow and 4.406 billion was USDC inflow.
The funds retained in major cryptocurrency exchanges around the world are 46.368 billion, which is still at a historical high.
In terms of fund supply alone, liquidity is not scarce at present, but funds have been slow to form firm buying power and are instead waiting and watching, showing the cautious attitude adopted by traders in the face of uncertain market outlook.
Selling pressure and selling
In terms of selling pressure, long and short hands sold a total of 182,600 coins, a slight decrease from last week, maintaining at a normal level. During the same period, the trading volume of exchanges increased slightly, indicating that the short-hand group still has some differences in the market.
Cycle Indicators
According to the eMerge engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.875, and the market is in an upward phase.
