After the revision from February to April, long-term funds entered the market, and the market became relatively stable after the chips were redistributed.

Trump's "surrender" and the Federal Reserve's "dovish" stance are the main driving forces behind the market rebound.

A large influx of funds for “bottom-fishing” in the stablecoin channel has pushed BTC to outperform the Nasdaq.

The short-hand group is currently still under pressure of 16% floating losses, and the collapse of this group will lead to further price falls.

The key to BTC's return to an upward trend is that the US tariff chaos is gradually disappearing and the expectations of economic recession are not worsening.

The BTC Spot ETF channel recorded net inflows for all five trading days of the week, totaling US$1.05 billion, which became the material support for BTC's rebound.

The worries about “stagflation” are hard to dispel, and the longer they drag on, the greater the room for valuation downward revisions. This is why we are pessimistic about BTC’s rebound in the short term.

Whether the rebound of US stocks and BTC can continue requires more observation, and whether they can bottom out and reverse requires more guidance from economic data.

This month, BTC Spot ETF recorded the largest monthly outflow since its establishment, and the BTC price should experience the largest retracement in this cycle.

The deterioration of the U.S. stock market environment has led to a continuous outflow of funds from the BTC Spot ETF, which is still the main reason for the weakening of BTC.

If the "Russia-Ukraine conflict" can be ended, it will undoubtedly bring significant positive changes to the global economy and financial markets.

If a severely hit market wants to resume its upward trend, it will be difficult to achieve it relying solely on internal forces.

In terms of holding structure, capital supply and optimistic sentiment, BTC has the potential to move up a level. The biggest obstacle comes from the panic and liquidity pressure that tariffs may cause.

BTC hits record high, Japanese yen raises interest rates, and Trump's crypto-friendly policies begin to take effect

The exchange inventory is still in a continuous downward trend, reaching 29,770 this week, the largest outflow in six weeks, indicating that BTC priced at $90,000 to $100,000 is still very attractive to many funds.

This relatively stable chip structure and stablecoin accumulation show that there is no significant adjustment pressure within the market.

Completing the adjustments caused by the downward adjustment in US interest rate cut expectations and restoring liquidity are two necessary conditions for BTC to resume its upward trend.

Subsequent price trends will depend more on the warming trading sentiment of U.S. stocks and the allocation scale of BTC and ETH by mainstream U.S. funds and institutions.

After a rapid rise of 38% in one month, various factors have led to adjustments in BTC. This may be a necessary stage for long-term advancement.