Author: A Aldokali

Compilation｜Baidu Blockchain

For months, crypto traders have been anxiously refreshing price charts in anticipation of the arrival of “alt season,” when altcoins would surge. However, despite bullish predictions and brief rallies, alt season has yet to materialize.

Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, leaving altcoin enthusiasts wondering: Why is alt season so late? Will there be an alt season at all?

01. Bitcoin’s Iron Fist Control: Dominance and Institutional Adoption

Bitcoin’s dominance — its share of the total crypto market capitalization — has been hovering around 60% in 2024-2025, a level not seen since the 2017 bull run. This dominance reflects the market’s preference for Bitcoin due to its stability and widespread institutional adoption.

  • Institutional attention: Bitcoin ETFs approved in late 2023 and early 2024 have attracted billions of dollars in inflows into BTC, making it a "safe haven asset" in the crypto market. Large institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity prioritize Bitcoin and ignore altcoins.
  • Halving Effect: The 2024 Bitcoin halving event reinforces its scarcity narrative, attracting funds that might otherwise flow into riskier altcoins.

As analyst Benjamin Cowen points out, “altcoins typically start to rally after Bitcoin completes its parabolic rise.” With BTC still hitting new highs, there’s no reason for investors to turn to altcoins.

02. Macroeconomic headwinds: The Fed’s tight control over liquidity

The Fed’s monetary policy has been the invisible killer of altcoin season hopes. Unlike the 2020-2021 bull run (driven by near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing), 2024-2025 is marked by quantitative tightening (QT) and high interest rates.

  • Liquidity Tightening: Quantitative tightening drains liquidity from financial markets and reduces risk appetite. As speculative assets, altcoins rely on excess capital, and without liquidity, they can only stagnate.
  • Rate cuts delayed: Despite market rumors that the Federal Reserve may shift to an easing policy, rate cuts are still a long way off. Until borrowing costs are lower, both institutional and retail investors are reluctant to take risks on altcoins.

This macroeconomic backdrop stands in stark contrast to the flood of liquidity seen during previous altcoin seasons, when meme and DeFi tokens surged.

03. Oversupply of altcoins: Too many coins, not enough demand

The crypto market is flooded with over 15,000 altcoins, but liquidity is failing to keep up. New projects are launched every day, but the total capital pool remains fragmented, diluting potential gains.

  • Capital fragmentation: More tokens compete for the same liquidity, making it difficult for even promising projects to gain traction.
  • Venture capital is cautious: Venture capital in crypto projects will drop from $29.4 billion in 2022 to $7.1 billion in 2024, and altcoin development funds are seriously short.

This oversupply has created a “crowded market” where only tokens with outstanding utility or viral popularity can stand out — a far cry from the ICO boom of 2017 or the NFT mania of 2021.

04. Retail investors are absent

Altcoin seasons are usually driven by retail FOMO (fear of missing out). However, retail participation in 2025 is significantly weaker than in past cycles.

  • Social sentiment is low: Indicators tracking crypto-related social media activity show the market lacks the frenzy that characterized the 2021 Dogecoin or Shiba Inu craze.
  • Cautious behavior: Retail investors who were hurt by the 2022 market crash are now preferring Bitcoin over altcoins. As one trader put it: “Why buy the meme when BTC is up 150% this year?”

Without retail enthusiasm, altcoins lack the fuel to ignite a sustained rally.

05. Regulatory uncertainty: a double-edged sword

Regulatory clarity is crucial for altcoins, especially those classified as securities. While the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance has fueled optimism, progress has been slow.

  • ETF Delays: Altcoin ETFs for Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin remain stuck in regulatory limbo. Analysts give them a 65-90% chance of approval, but the timeline is unclear.
  • DeFi and Stablecoin Scrutiny: Regulatory ambiguity around decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and stablecoins has stifled innovation and deterred institutional funding.

Until regulators approve an altcoin ETF or clarify the rules, uncertainty will continue.

06. Historical Model: Patience is a virtue

The crypto market is cyclical, with altcoin seasons typically occurring in the final year of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. While 2025 is considered the next altcoin season, delays are not without precedent.

  • 2017 vs. 2021: Both alt seasons occurred after Bitcoin hit an all-time high and entered a consolidation period. If BTC stabilizes above $100,000, capital may eventually flow into altcoins.
  • ETH/BTC Ratio: Ethereum’s underperformance against Bitcoin suggests the alt season has yet to kick in. Ethereum has historically led altcoins higher, but its ratio against BTC remains near multi-year lows.

07. Summary

The alt season is not gone, it is just waiting for the right conditions. Bitcoin’s dominance, macroeconomic pressures, and regulatory hurdles have temporarily put the pause button on altcoin frenzy. However, history shows that once BTC enters a stable period and liquidity returns, altcoins will have their moment.

Patience and selective investment in projects with strong fundamentals — such as AI, DeFi, or Layer-2 solutions — are key at this moment. As the crypto adage goes: “Time in the market beats trying to time it.”

Stay tuned, proceed with caution, and keep an eye on Bitcoin dominance. The clock is ticking for the alt season — it’s a matter of when, not if.