1. Macroeconomic shock: the double whammy of tariffs and inflation
Trump's new tariff policy triggers market panic
The United States plans to announce a "reciprocal tariff" policy on April 2, and is expected to impose an average tariff of 15% on all trading partners, 5 percentage points higher than previously expected. Goldman Sachs warned that this move could push up import costs and trigger global retaliatory actions, exacerbating supply chain inflation pressure;
On March 28, the U.S. stock market's "Black Friday", the S&P 500 index plummeted 1.97%, led by technology stocks, and the market value evaporated by $505 billion. The crypto market was also under pressure, with Bitcoin falling from $84,000 to $81,565, and the total market value shrinking by 25% to $2.9 trillion;
Inflation data exceeded expectations, and the prospect of interest rate cuts was overshadowed
The US core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year in February, higher than the expected 2.6%, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell to 57 (the lowest since 2022). Goldman Sachs lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.5% to 1.0%, and the probability of a recession rose to 35%;
Federal Reserve officials expressed hawkish views. Boston Fed President Collins said that "it is appropriate to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time." The market's expectations for interest rate cuts this year have shrunk from 4 to 1-2 times, and risky assets have been sold off.
II. Institutional Fund Movements: ETF Differentiation and RWA Explosion
Bitcoin ETF fund flows diverge
US Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for two consecutive weeks, with a total outflow of $1.54 billion in March, of which GBTC sold 641 BTC (worth $56.45 million) in a single day. However, BlackRock IBIT still maintained net inflows, with cumulative AUM exceeding $40 billion, showing long-term institutional confidence;
El Salvador continues to increase its holdings of BTC, purchasing 53 in the past 30 days, with a mid-term goal of adding 20,000, strengthening its position as a "Bitcoin strategic reserve";
RWA track rises against the trend
The market size of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) is expected to reach $50 billion by 2025. The price of Ondo Finance (ONDO) tokens has exceeded $2.1, a record high, with a total market value of $2.8 billion. It cooperates with BlackRock BUIDL Fund to provide an annualized 4.44% return on U.S. Treasury bonds, attracting institutions such as Grayscale and Pantera Capital to hold positions;
Maple Finance has transformed into RWA mortgage lending, with a total loan amount of US$2.46 billion and an annualized yield of 9.69%. After the token MPL was exchanged for SYRUP, its circulation market value exceeded 100 million, making it a leader in the private credit field;
3. Technological innovation and market differentiation: Layer2 vs. Meme
Layer2 technology upgrade and institutional layout
Ethereum's Pectra upgrade will be launched in April, integrating the execution layer and the consensus layer, improving pledge flexibility, and paving the way for ETH spot ETFs that can be pledged. Fidelity and Grayscale have submitted applications, which may attract tens of billions of dollars in funds if approved;
Traditional giants such as Sony and Deutsche Bank built Layer2 on Ethereum. Although it did not detonate the C-end market, it highlighted the recognition of technology. The daily active users of Base Chain (owned by Coinbase) exceeded one million, and the transaction volume surpassed Solana;
Meme coin craze and risk warning
The "Meme Season" of the BSC chain continues, and CaptainBNB surged 13,000% in 6 hours after its launch, but most projects lack value support. The market value of the TRUMP coin issued by the Trump family once exceeded 12 billion US dollars, but was later questioned as a "disguised corruption tool" and its price was halved;
Analysts warn that the transaction volume of meme coins on chains such as Solana and Base accounts for more than 11%, but high leverage plus regulatory uncertainty (such as legislation by the U.S. Congress to restrict politicians from issuing coins) may trigger an avalanche of the sector;
IV. Future Outlook: Key Events and Strategic Recommendations
Risk events in April are intensive
Tariffs announced on April 2: If the policy is strict, Bitcoin may fall below $80,000; if some industries are exempted, it may rebound to $85,000;
April 5 non-farm data: If new employment is less than 150,000, it may strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts and promote a rebound in the crypto market;
Long-term trends and investment logic
Bitcoin strategic allocation: Galaxy Research predicts that BTC's target for 2025 is $185,000, and recommends investing in the $78,000-82,000 range, with a stop loss at $77,500;
RWA and compliance opportunities: Prioritize the layout of leading projects such as Ondo (ONDO) and Maple (SYRUP), and be wary of token unlocking pressure (for example, ONDO will unlock 1.94 billion tokens each year in the next four years);
Hedging strategy: Buy BTC put options (strike price $75,000) and allocate 20%-30% of stablecoins (USDC, DAI) to cope with extreme volatility;
Conclusion: Finding structural opportunities amid uncertainty
The crypto market in 2025 is undergoing multiple tests of macro policies, technological innovation and capital games. Although short-term fluctuations are drastic, RWA compliance, Layer2 upgrades and institutional ETF inflows are still the long-term main lines. Investors need to abandon FOMO emotions and grasp the value anchor under the "coexistence of crises" in the tariff storm and inflation fog.
—— This article does not contain any investment advice, please invest with caution
