Next week's macro outlook: Super data week is coming, non-agricultural and PCE will follow

PANews reported on April 26 that this week can be seen as a positive week as concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and ongoing trade frictions at the beginning of the week dissipated. On Friday, the U.S. stock market was generally flat as market participants continued to wait for more information about the tariff war. Looking ahead to next week, although the Federal Reserve has entered a "quiet period" and the domestic market is about to enter the May Day holiday, there are still many important schedules, including but not limited to non-agricultural data, U.S. first quarter GDP data, PCE inflation data, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision... The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

At 22:30 on Monday, the U.S. Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for April

Tuesday 22:00, US March JOLTs job vacancies, April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Wednesday 09:30, China's official manufacturing PMI for April

Wednesday 09:45, China's April Caixin Manufacturing PMI

At 17:00 on Wednesday, the euro zone's first quarter GDP annual rate preliminary value

Wednesday 20:15, US ADP employment data for April

At 20:30 on Wednesday, the U.S. first quarter labor cost index quarterly rate, the first quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate initial value, the first quarter real personal consumption expenditure quarterly rate initial value, the first quarter core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate initial value

At 22:00 on Wednesday, the US PCE price data for March, the monthly rate of personal spending in March, and the monthly rate of existing home sales index in March

Thursday 19:30, US Challenger Enterprises layoffs in April

Thursday 21:45, US April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value

At 20:30 on Friday, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for April in the United States

The ADP employment report, also known as the "small non-farm", will also be released next Wednesday, along with the latest PCE inflation and consumption data. However, the real focus will be the non-farm payrolls report due next Friday, and speculation is currently very intense about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Non-farm payroll growth is expected to slow from 228,000 in March to 130,000 in April, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2%. Average wages may increase by 0.3% month-on-month in April. For the US dollar, a series of worrying data will almost certainly be negative, but for US stocks, if hopes of rate cuts are improved and market sentiment is not overshadowed by recession concerns, stocks may rise.