PANews reported on May 3 that concerns about trade tensions have eased further in the past week. Although a series of economic data were mixed, the unexpectedly strong non-farm report, which has attracted the most attention, has also eased concerns about slowing economic growth. In the coming week, the market's attention will turn to central bank interest rate decisions, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. In terms of economic data, the service industry PMI of many countries around the world will be released. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
At 21:45 on Monday, the final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI for April will be released;
Tuesday 9:45, China’s April Caixin Services PMI;
At 1:00 on Wednesday, the US 10-year Treasury bond auction will be held until May 6;
At 2:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision;
At 2:30 on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference;
At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 3;
Thursday 23:00, US New York Fed 1-year inflation forecast for April;
At 18:15 on Friday, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivered a keynote speech at the 2025 Reykjavik Economic Conference;
At 20:00 on Friday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler will deliver a speech;
At 22:00 on Friday, Goolsbee, 2025 FOMC voting member and president of the Chicago Fed, delivered a welcome and opening speech at an event of the Federal Reserve;
At 22:40 on Friday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Barr will deliver a speech;
At 23:30 on Friday, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference (via pre-recorded video).
US hard and soft data continue to paint different economic pictures. Soft data such as market sentiment and surveys are weakening, but hard data such as non-farm payrolls may not reflect the impact of tariffs until January or July. In other words, just like at the end of 2022, weak data did not translate into a recession. If Trump subsequently cuts tariffs, a similar scenario may be played out in 2025.
Looking ahead to June, Nick Timiraos, the "Fed mouthpiece", said after the release of the non-farm data: "At present, this (referring to non-farm) means that the Fed does not need to say anything about June policy at next week's meeting", and he added that "the April employment report reduces the possibility of a rate cut in June because there was only one employment report released before that". Both Goldman Sachs and Barclays Bank postponed their expectations for the next rate cut from June to July.
