Trading Time: Central Bank Week kicks off, Bitcoin needs to consolidate support at $114,000, and Ethereum strives to hold steady at $4,600

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, marking its first cut since Trump's second term, amid a complex backdrop of White House pressure and inflation concerns.
Bitcoin is consolidating around $116,000, with analysts emphasizing the need to establish strong support at $114,000 before attempting new highs beyond $117,000.
Ethereum has rebounded to approximately $4,750 and is striving to hold the key support level of $4,631, which is crucial for entering a new price discovery phase.
Institutional demand remains strong, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording five consecutive days of net inflows (+$642 million) and Ethereum ETFs four days (+$406 million) as of September 12.
Notable altcoin movements include PUMP nearly tripling since its Binance listing and AVNT surging over 8x after listings on Binance Futures, Spot, and Upbit.
Markets are closely watching central bank decisions this week, as dovish signals could sustain the upward trend, while hawkish tones might trigger a correction.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Global financial markets are entering a packed "central bank super week," with the United States, Japan, and other countries set to announce their interest rate decisions this week. The macroeconomic landscape is at a critical crossroads. Markets generally expect the Federal Reserve to announce its first interest rate cut since Trump's second term, likely by 25 basis points, although a 50 basis point cut remains a slight possibility. This expectation is shaped by a complex backdrop: on the one hand, the White House's persistent pressure to lower borrowing costs, and on the other, Fed Chairman Powell's caution against tariff-driven inflation.

However, with inflation still above target, Fed officials may signal that market expectations are overly aggressive, so Powell's speech and updated "dot plot" will be in the spotlight. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett noted that with US nominal GDP growth expected to peak in 2025, the "buy anything but bonds" (ABB) logic that has dominated the market for the past few years will end, replaced by a new "buy anything but the dollar" (ABD) paradigm, which will benefit non-US assets such as gold, cryptocurrencies, and international markets.

Bitcoin prices hovered around $116,000 over the weekend, with trader Skew noting strong buying liquidity below $115,000. Many analysts believe the current priority is not to reach new highs directly, but to consolidate key support levels. For example, Rekt Capital emphasizes that Bitcoin must first successfully convert $114,000 into support before building momentum for a breakout above $117,000 and the previous high of $124,500. Market sentiment is influenced by multiple factors: First, the Bitcoin futures market has filled the CME price gap, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net inflows, indicating strong institutional demand. This leads analyst Keith Alan to believe that the previous cycle top has not yet arrived. Second, CryptoQuant analysts note that while ETFs and derivatives are driving prices, on-chain activity still indicates a long-term holding pattern. Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve's signals; if it sends a dovish signal, the market is expected to continue its upward trend; otherwise, a correction is likely. On-chain data analyst Murphy observed through the realized profit indicator of short-term holders (STH) that although the current market demand has recovered, it is still in a "weak rebound" stage overall, and the trend reversal still requires stronger signal confirmation.

Regarding Ethereum, according to analyst Rekt Capital, after encountering resistance near the weekly CME gap near $4,000, the price has rebounded to approximately $4,750 and is currently striving to re-establish support at the key $4,631 level. A successful hold would pave the way for Ethereum to enter a new phase of price discovery. Macro analyst Jordi Visser expressed optimism, predicting that traditional finance will increase its allocation to crypto assets between now and the end of the year, particularly among institutional investors in the fourth quarter as they prepare for next year. He specifically noted that Ethereum's current consolidation in the $4,000 to $5,000 range could be a prelude to a major breakout, which, if achieved, would unlock the potential of the entire ecosystem. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes shares a similar long-term optimism, believing that the current massive money printing has not yet truly begun and that the bull market could continue into next year. This provides a macroeconomic backdrop supporting the long-term value growth of major crypto assets like Ethereum.

Beyond mainstream assets, the live streaming feature of the Pump.fun platform has spawned a wave of "live streaming concept coins." Binance also listed PUMP, whose price has nearly tripled since its spot trading debut on September 11th. Furthermore, the AVNT token on the BASE chain has surged from $0.175 to a high of $1.45 following its listing on Binance Futures, spot trading, and Upbit, representing an over 8-fold increase since its September 9th Binance Futures listing. However, Hyperliquid's HYPE token, after reaching a record high of $57 following the conclusion of the HSDH competition, has retreated for four days. Native Markets won the USDH stablecoin bidding.

2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, September 15)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

Bitcoin: $116,179 (+24.4% YTD), daily spot volume $30.814 billion
Ethereum: $4,654.17 (+39.84% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $25.866 billion
Fear of corruption index: 52 (neutral)
Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.121 Gwei
Market share: BTC 57.7%, ETH 14.01%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: AVNT, XRP, DOGE, SOL, ETH
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 50.05%/49.95%
Sector gains and losses: Meme fell 3.43%, RWA fell 2.78%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 117,645 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$241 million, including BTC liquidation of US$22.02 million, ETH liquidation of US$46.98 million, and DOGE liquidation of US$18.6 million.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($114,505.25), lower channel line ($112,237.82)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($4526.79), lower line ($4437.15)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of September 12)

Bitcoin ETF: +$642 million, 5 consecutive days of net inflows
Ethereum ETF: +$406 million, 4 consecutive days of net inflows

4. Today's Outlook

Binance HODLer Airdrop Project Boundless (ZKC) to Launch Spot Trading on September 15th
Binance Alpha to List Project Merlin (MRLN) on September 16th
South Korea to lift ban on VC investment in crypto companies on September 16
ZetaChain will undergo a UNISON upgrade on September 16th, including increased speed and greater compatibility with Ethereum.
Connex (CONX) will unlock approximately 2.32 million tokens at 8:00 AM on September 15th, representing a 3.10% unlock ratio to the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $35.1 million.
Sei (SEI) will unlock approximately 55.56 million tokens at 8:00 PM on September 15th, accounting for 1.18% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately $18.9 million.
Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens at 8:00 AM on September 15th, representing 5.98% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $17.1 million.
Banana Gun (BANANA) will unlock approximately 500,000 tokens at 8:00 AM on September 15th, representing 6.33% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $11.6 million.
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock approximately 92.65 million tokens at 9:00 PM on September 16th, representing 2.03% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $49.2 million.

The biggest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: Saros up 13%, Monero up 5.7%, Flare up 4.5%, Aerodrome Finance up 3.1%, and Ethena up 1.8%.