Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in August. Core inflation remained stable. Although the breakdown showed that service and some commodity prices remained sticky, the overall reading was in line with market expectations. Initial jobless claims jumped to 263,000, a nearly four-year high. This, coupled with a significant downward revision to the previous non-farm payroll data, further confirmed a cooling labor market. Following the release of the data, all three major US stock indices hit record highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 600 points. The US dollar index fell significantly.

A Reuters poll shows that 105 of 107 economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% on September 17 , marking the first rate cut of the year. A weakening labor market and downward revisions to employment data have reinforced expectations of a rate cut, with the market currently pricing in three rate cuts this year. With the release of US CPI data, market focus shifts to next week's Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting. Experts, including Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, agree that the Fed is likely to lower its benchmark interest rate, a move that typically benefits Bitcoin and other risky assets.

Driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, Bitcoin market sentiment is optimistic, with prices exceeding $116,000. Crypto investor Ted Pillows observed that Bitcoin has risen before falling in the past three CPI data releases , and he expects this pattern to repeat this time. Glassnode analysis indicates that Bitcoin prices are currently fluctuating between $110,000 and $16,000, with market momentum weakened by profit-taking and weakening ETF inflows. In the short term, derivatives markets are the primary driver, with futures and options trading providing market balance. Blockhead co-founder and executive editor Timothy Misir noted that a daily close above the $113,000-$113,500 range could initiate an upward trend toward $118,000; otherwise, support could fall back to $107,000-$109,000. Several analysts are bullish on the market outlook, with BitBull noting that Bitcoin has successfully converted the key resistance level of $113,500 into support. A further recapture of $117,000 would confirm a new all-time high. Cryptocurrency analyst Altcoin Sherpa observed that the Bitcoin price has broken through the 200-day moving average on the 4-hour cycle, forming a bullish structure with a projected minimum target price of $117,000 and a tendency to see the price break above $120,000.

Meanwhile, Ethereum's price has been relatively stable, consolidating between $4,200 and $4,500 over the past two weeks. Despite briefly hitting an all-time high of $4,956 in late August, the current annualized futures premium is only 5%, and spot ETFs have only seen a slight recovery after experiencing consecutive net outflows. This suggests low leveraged buying demand and a lack of sustained bullish momentum. Trader Merlijn suggests that continued price weakness could lead to a pullback to the $4,000 to $4,100 support range. However, he also suggests a bullish scenario, arguing that Ethereum's monthly MACD indicator has turned green, a strong long-term bullish signal. A clear break above the $4,500 resistance level could trigger a parabolic rally.

Solana has become a focal point in the altcoin market. The rise of digital asset treasuries has provided strong financial support for SOL. Galaxy Digital has accumulated 2,159,182 SOL (approximately $486 million) in the past 24 hours. Companies such as Forward Industries, BIT Mining, and Upexi have also recently increased their holdings significantly. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that we have entered "SOL season." Analysts are generally optimistic about its fourth-quarter performance, citing its fast transaction speeds, low costs, and the upcoming spot ETF approval (October 10th as a key milestone) as key growth drivers. Delphi Digital analysts have set a target price of $250-300, believing that SOL has formed a higher low in the approximately $160 range. They also believe that a retest of the $200 range is a clear buy signal, but a close below this range is not a good sign. They believe that SOL may be the next beneficiary of the ETH fund rotation. Analysis by Man of Bitcoin suggests short-term support between $221 and $213.

DOGE has also benefited from the development of its reserve fund. After Nasdaq-listed CleanCore Solutions announced the establishment of an official DOGE reserve on September 2nd, the coin's price has surged 23%. Following its initial purchase of 285.4 million DOGE on Monday, the company increased its holdings again within less than three days, bringing its total holdings to over 500 million DOGE, with plans to expand to 1 billion. The first spot Dogecoin ETF is expected to be listed next week. Furthermore, Avalanche (AVAX) has also received positive news: Bitwise has completed entity registration for its ETF, and the Avalanche Foundation is in talks to establish a crypto asset reserve company with a total investment of approximately $1 billion. These developments demonstrate the continued influx of capital into mainstream crypto assets through various channels, including DATs, pushing the market into a new stage of competition and development.

2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, September 12)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $115,508 (+19.34% YTD), daily spot trading volume $49.569 billion

• Ethereum: $4,552 (+28.44% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $35.358 billion

• Fear of corruption index: 58 (neutral)

• Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.165 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.13%, ETH 13.75%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ETH, XRP, SOL, HOLO, BTC

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 50.4%/49.6%

• Sector gains and losses: NFT rose 4.76%, RWA rose 3.56%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 115,748 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$356 million, including BTC liquidation of US$83.23 million, ETH liquidation of US$95.65 million, and SOL liquidation of US$48.04 million.

• BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($113,714.16), lower channel line ($111,462.39)

• ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($4417.84), lower line ($4330.36)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of September 11)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$553 million, 4 consecutive days of net inflows

• Ethereum ETF: +$113 million, 3 consecutive days of net inflows

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will list ARAI (AA) on September 12th

• OKX will delist six USDT perpetual contracts, including ZEREBRO, WAXP, and NEIROETH, on September 12th.

• Binance Alpha to List STBL (STBL) on September 13th

• Hyper Foundation: Voting for the issuance rights of the stablecoin USDH will begin on September 14th, and will be conducted on the chain and based on staking

• Peaq (PEAQ) will unlock approximately 84.84 million tokens at 8:00 am on September 12, accounting for 6.38% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately US$5.6 million.

The biggest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: Ondo up 8.9%, Pudgy Penguins up 8.9%, Aerodrome Finance up 8.6%, Saros up 8.2%, and Jupiter up 7.6%.

5. Hot News

• Tether Treasury mints 1 billion new USDT on Ethereum

• Next Technology, a listed company that acquired 5,000 Bitcoins in the first half of the year, will implement a 200-for-1 reverse stock split.

• The average increase in Binance Alpha tokens that meet the criteria of "listing on contracts, not on spot trading, on the BSC chain, and not airdropping" is as high as 620%.

• Galaxy Digital once again purchased over 700,000 SOL tokens, worth approximately $160 million

• FTX/Alameda redeemed and transferred another 192,000 SOL, approximately $43.56 million

• Bitcoin's "sleeping whale" transferred more than 230 BTC after 13 years

• DTCC Lists Three Crypto ETFs, Including Solana, HBAR, and XRP

• Safety Shot established BONK Holdings to implement its digital asset strategy and currently holds 2.5% of the total circulating supply of BONK

• Three newly created wallets received over $200 million worth of ETH from FalconX in the past three hours.

• Starknet: BTC staking functionality will be launched on the mainnet on September 30

• Sei: U.S. Department of Commerce data will soon be connected to the Sei network

• The annual rate of the US core CPI in August was 3.1%, and the annual rate of the US CPI in August was 2.9%.

• Mogujie will allocate up to $20 million in digital assets to advance decentralized AI development and treasury management.

• Forward Industries Completes $1.65 Billion Private Placement to Advance Solana’s Financial Strategy

• Worldcoin investor Selini Capital transfers 900,000 WLD to Amber Group

• Trend Research's new address is suspected of repurchasing ETH, with a total holding of over 43,000 ETH

• Avalanche to raise $1 billion to establish crypto asset reserve company

• Scroll DAO governance announced a "pause" and the leadership team resigned en masse