Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

China-US trade relations have seen positive progress, with both sides reaching a consensus during consultations in Kuala Lumpur. The US will remove the 10% fentanyl tariff and continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year, while also suspending the 50% pass-through rule on export controls and the Section 301 investigations against China's maritime affairs for another year. China has also adjusted its countermeasures accordingly. However, investor concerns about the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut continue to grow, and market sentiment is subdued after the FOMC meeting. Meta's stock price plummeted 11% due to its AI spending plan. Regarding the much-discussed AI wave, a UBS report argues that although bubble conditions are maturing, key topping signals have not yet appeared . The current P/E ratio of the Mag6 tech giants at 35 is far lower than during the dot-com bubble, indicating that the market is still in the "early stages of a potential bubble."

Furthermore, Goldman Sachs' CEO warned that the soaring US debt level of nearly $40 trillion could push the economy to the brink of collapse without corresponding economic growth. Notably, fintech giant Fiserv saw its stock price plummet by approximately 44% on Wednesday due to management mismanagement, a flawed pricing strategy, and far below-expected earnings, wiping out about $30 billion in market capitalization.

In the Bitcoin market, prices fluctuated after the FOMC meeting, briefly dipping below $107,000. Analysts held differing opinions on the future, but generally focused on key support levels. Analyst Killa believes that although the overall structure remains bullish, the price's three failed attempts to break the monthly opening price could trigger a deeper correction to $101,000-$102,000, or even below $100,000, in the $97,000-$98,000 area. For the bull market to continue, a weekly close above $115,000 is needed. Crypto Chase sees the $100,000 level as Bitcoin's last chance to reach a new all-time high in the short term and plans to place long orders near that level. Ted emphasizes that since the first quarter of 2023, Bitcoin's weekly closing price has never fallen below the 50-period moving average, and holding this level is crucial for the bull market. From a cyclical perspective, analyst Mister Crypto cautions that with 558 days remaining until the 2024 halving, we've entered a historically significant bull market top window. Jesse Olson also points to a bearish MACD crossover on the three-week chart, a signal that accurately predicted market tops in 2017 and 2021. Despite short-term pressure, Coinbase added 2,772 Bitcoins in the third quarter, and Strategy recently transferred 22,704 BTC to a new wallet.

Ethereum is also facing pressure, with prices fluctuating around the $4,000 mark and failing to hold firmly. Market data shows that Ethereum futures have low premiums, ETF inflows are weak, and the number of active on-chain addresses and network fees have decreased by 4% and 16% respectively, all reflecting insufficient market demand. Analyst Man of Bitcoin pointed out that Ethereum's price reversed before hitting the $3,681 support level, and a break above the downtrend line could signal the start of a new round of upward movement. However, another analyst, Crypto_Jobs, is cautious, believing that a bearish "double test" may occur on the daily chart, with prices potentially falling back to the $3,450 or $3,200 support area, and warning that a break below $3,180 would be detrimental to the medium-term bullish outlook. However, some analysts are relatively optimistic. FibonacciTrading believes that even a pullback to $3,300 would be a healthy correction within an uptrend. Cactus stated that as long as the $3,800-$4,200 support area holds, an upward trend in the fourth quarter is still expected. Looking at the long term, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that the RWA tokenization market will reach $2 trillion by 2028, and believes that the "vast majority" of this activity will take place on the Ethereum network. Furthermore, Coinbase also increased its holdings by 11,933 Ethereum in the third quarter.

Since its launch, the Solana spot ETF has consistently attracted investment, with the US Solana spot ETF recording a net inflow of $37.33 million on October 30th, marking three consecutive days of net inflows. Bitwise's Matt Hougan is optimistic that Solana can leverage its technological advantages to gain a larger share of the growing stablecoin and tokenized market. However, analyst Ted believes that the altcoin market may struggle to see a full-blown rebound before the Federal Reserve initiates quantitative easing. Furthermore, Kite (KITE) announced its listing on Binance Alpha on November 3rd, with its token economic model allocating 48% of its token to the ecosystem and community. Since its listing on Binance pre-market trading, Kite has continued to rise, gaining 33% in the past 24 hours.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on October 31)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, CoinMarketCap, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $109,632 (year-to-date +17.31%), daily spot trading volume $69.88 billion.

• Ethereum: $3,831 (year-to-date +14.87%), daily spot trading volume $34.9 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 31 (Panic)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.1 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 59.4%, ETH 12.6%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, ETH, BTC, SOL, ENSO

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.9%/51.1%

• Sector Performance: Level 2 (L2) sector fell 6.98%, NFT sector fell 5.66%.

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 219,381 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $885 million. This included $309 million in BTC liquidations, $194 million in ETH liquidations, and $193.36 million in HYPE liquidations.

• BTC medium-to-long-term trend channel: upper edge ($112,306.24), lower edge ($110,082.35).

• ETH medium-to-long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($4007.59), lower channel line ($3928.24)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower limits, it indicates a medium- to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping pattern.

3. ETF Flows (as of October 30)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$488 million, none of the 12 ETFs saw net inflows.

• Ethereum ETF: -$184 million, none of the nine ETFs saw net inflows.

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will list NB, BAY, and BEAT tokens and conduct airdrops.

• Binance Wallet will list Momentum (MMT) during its second Prime Sale Pre-TGE.

• Binance will remove the ATA/BTC, LAYER/BNB, and POWR/ETH spot trading pairs.

• The deadline for Mt. Gox repayments has been extended from October 31 to 2026.

• The dYdX community has proposed a three-month trial starting November 1st: using 100% of protocol fees for DYDX buybacks.

• Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens on October 31st at 8:00 AM, representing 1.71% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $14.2 million.

• Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens on October 31st at 8:00 AM, representing 1.24% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $13.3 million.

• Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 43.96 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on November 1st, representing 1.21% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $113 million.

• EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 36.82 million tokens at 12:00 PM on November 1st, representing 12.10% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $41.6 million.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Zcash up 11.8%, Rain up 11.4%, Dash up 6.1%, MemeCore up 5.2%, and Aerodrome Finance up 3.8%.

5. Hot News

• Strategy transferred a total of 22,704 BTC, worth approximately $2.45 billion, to multiple new addresses.

• The Ether.Fi community has proposed allocating up to $50 million from its treasury for the ETHFI buyback program.

• The Jupiter community is voting on whether to burn the 130 million JUP tokens it previously repurchased.

• SEGG Media, a publicly traded company, plans to launch a $300 million digital asset program, initially focusing on Bitcoin.

• Bitmine appears to have received 44,036 ETH, worth $166 million, from a centralized exchange through two new wallets.

• Jump Crypto transferred $205 million in SOL to Galaxy Digital in the early hours of the morning and received 2,455 BTC.

• The UFC collaboration project FIGHT token raised $183 million in its public offering, exceeding its target by more than 100 times.