Trading time: Gold breaks through $4,000, Bitcoin may hit $117,000 before reaching $150,000, and the BNB chain Chinese meme craze dominates the National Day holiday

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

On the last day of the National Day holiday, spot gold prices broke through the historic $4,000 per ounce mark, reaching a high of $4,037. This surge was driven by a combination of factors, including market concerns about the US economic outlook, the risk of a government shutdown, global trade uncertainty, and expectations that the Federal Reserve would embark on a cycle of loose monetary policy. Investors flocked to gold ETFs seeking safety, with September seeing its largest monthly inflow in over three years. Billionaire Ray Dalio compared the current situation to the period of high inflation and economic turmoil in the 1970s, arguing that gold is a safer asset than the US dollar and recommending a 15% allocation to his portfolio. Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital even suggested increasing the gold allocation to 25%.

However, Wall Street giants disagree on the market outlook. Ken Griffin of Citadel Investments believes the rise in gold and Bitcoin reflects market concerns about the US dollar and represents a "depreciation trade." Paul Tudor Jones of Tudor Investment believes the US stock market is on the verge of a late-stage bull market explosion and plans to hold gold, cryptocurrencies, and tech stocks by year-end to capture a surge potentially more explosive than the 1999 dot-com bubble. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its gold price target to $4,900 by the end of 2026. However, Bank of America strategist Paul Ciana warned that gold prices are nearing a peak and could enter a consolidation or correction phase in the fourth quarter. Fxempire also suggests that despite a long-term bullish outlook, the probability of a substantial correction after the parabolic rise is increasing significantly, potentially leading to support near $3,700.

Despite a slight pullback after hitting a record high of $126,200 on October 6, Bitcoin's overall upward trend remains solid. Analyst Marcel Pechman noted that the monthly Bitcoin futures premium is in a neutral range, indicating that the current rally is driven by actual capital inflows rather than excessive speculation, reducing the risk of a sharp drop. Market analysts are generally optimistic about the outlook, with bulls targeting $150,000 or higher by year-end. Specifically, analyst Mags believes that holding the $120,000 support level is key to continued upward movement, with the next resistance level at $135,000. MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe stated that Bitcoin is building momentum to break through $150,000, and that the $118,500 to $120,500 range would be an ideal entry point in the event of a pullback. On-chain data also supports the bullish outlook. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis model suggests that the price still has room to rise before reaching $133,460. Higher resistance is around $150,000, while key support is located at $113,300. Bitcoin's cost basis distribution shows that the price has weak support between $121,000 and $120,000, while a key support area has formed around $117,000, where approximately 190,000 BTC have been purchased. Analysts such as AlphaBTC and KillaXBT have also pointed out the risk of a short-term pullback, believing that the market may need a 15%-20% pullback to test the support level of $117,000 or even $109,000, laying the foundation for a larger rise in the fourth quarter.

Compared to Bitcoin's strong breakout, Ethereum's performance appears to be lagging. While Bitcoin reached a new high, Ethereum failed to break through the key resistance level of $4,800 and subsequently retreated below $4,500. Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly noted that while Ethereum's 15% gain since 2022 is far less than Bitcoin's 130%, exhibiting a "liquidity lag," some on-chain indicators suggest it may be catching up. For example, Ethereum reserves on exchanges have fallen by over 25% since 2022, with persistently negative net flows, indicating a decline in supply and reduced selling pressure. Current market signals are mixed: net selling pressure is emerging in the spot market, but the futures market remains active, suggesting leveraged traders are still positioning themselves. Regarding key price levels, analyst Skew believes that if Ethereum can hold the $4,700-4,800 range, which it has recently attempted to break through, it would be a "very bullish" sign. Biraajmaan Tamuly analyzed that short-term liquidity may sweep around $4,400. If a strong rebound can be achieved here, the bullish momentum is expected to continue; but if it fails to hold, the pullback may extend to the demand area of $4,250 to $4,100, which is considered to be a key level for potential trend reversal.

During the National Day holiday, the BNB blockchain's meme coin craze dominated the market, pushing the BNB token price to nearly $1,350, a new all-time high. According to Bubblemaps data, over 100,000 on-chain traders participated in this meme coin purchase, with 70% profiting, including one individual who made over $10 million and 40 individuals who made over $1 million. Several meme projects listed on Binance Alpha performed impressively. For example, "Binance Life" saw its market capitalization surpass $400 million, a 24-hour increase of 630%; BNB Card saw a 24-hour increase of 172%, reaching a market capitalization of approximately $5.64 million; and PALU saw a 24-hour increase of 36%, reaching a market capitalization of approximately $100 million. Other projects not yet listed on Alpha, such as "Binance Auto," "Customer Service Xiao He," and "Big Cousin," also saw significant growth. This craze also boosted the development of related ecosystem projects. For example, the price of FORM, the token of the BSC meme launch platform Four, surged nearly 50% before subsequently falling due to large deposits of tokens by whales into the exchange.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, October 8)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

Bitcoin: $121,742 (+30.04% YTD), daily spot trading volume $78.83 billion
Ethereum: $4,451 (+33.45% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $52.35 billion
Fear of corruption index: 55 (neutral)
Average gas: BTC: 1.13 sat/vB, ETH: 0.15 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.3%, ETH 12.9%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ETH, BTC, XRP, DOOD, SOL
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 48.56%/51.44%
Sector gains and losses: NFT sector fell 7.58%, Meme sector fell 6.47%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 179,644 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$690 million, including US$183 million in BTC, US$162 million in ETH, and US$56.8194 million in SOL.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($120,274.66), lower channel line ($117,892.99)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($4443.12), lower line ($4355.14)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of October 7)

Bitcoin ETF: -$23.81 million, with outflows after six consecutive days of net inflows
Ethereum ETF: +$421 million, 7 consecutive days of net inflows

4. Today's Outlook

UK FCA to open retail channels for cryptocurrency ETNs on October 8
The Base mainnet will undergo the Optimism Superchain U16A upgrade on October 8th
Binance Alpha plans to list SLIMEX (SLX) and Pipe Network on October 8th
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. (October 9, 02:00)
BiFinanceToken (BFT) will unlock approximately 22.99 million tokens on October 8, accounting for 2.3% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately $15.09 million.
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) will unlock approximately 1.46 million tokens on October 8th, representing 1.46% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $28.75 million.

The biggest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: PancakeSwap up 10.7%, Mantle up 3.8%, BNB up 3.5%, Tether Gold up 1.6%, and PAX Gold up 1.5%.