Two main themes of the crypto market in the second half of 2025: Deterministic opportunities under the game of interest rate cuts and system reconstruction

Interest Rate Cut Game: The crypto market in 2025 is heavily influenced by the political clash between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell over interest rate cuts, with Powell currently dominating financial market discourse while Trump uses tariffs and social media to exert pressure.
System Reconstruction: Cryptocurrencies are becoming integral to reshaping the U.S. dollar financial system, evidenced by Bitcoin reserves, stablecoin expansion plans, and regulatory clarity efforts under the Trump administration.
Retail Investor Strategy: Amid 2025's uncertainty, retail investors should focus on anchoring 2026 opportunities, such as the U.S. bond-stablecoin-PayFi-RWA ecosystem and CFTC-regulated PerpDEX platforms like Hyperliquid.
Key Takeaway: The year demands strategic positioning for 2026's确定性 (certainty) rather than short-term gains, emphasizing long-term preparation in a volatile landscape.

Author: NingNing

We are about to enter the end of June, and the situation of the crypto market in 25 years has become very clear!

There are two main lines of trading logic throughout this year's crypto market:

1. One clear line is the dispute between US President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell over whether to cut interest rates this year.

Although most macro analysts refuse to introduce a political dimension to analyze the dispute between Trump and Powell over whether to cut interest rates, those who understand understand that whether to cut interest rates or not has no direct relationship with US inflation data and non-farm employment. It is actually a major handle in the political game between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the United States.

By observing the current FedWatch rate cut expectations, Polymarket forecasts and Twitter public opinion, we can find that Powell now firmly controls the discourse power in the financial market, and Trump can only rely on various tariff wars to exert extreme pressure and spit on social media to tear off some influence in the financial market.

Therefore, before the two major game equilibrium points in the future - Powell's retirement in May 2026 and the US mid-term elections, the entire market is in an uncertain state brought about by the confrontational game between Powell tightening the market liquidity tap and Trump fanning the flames everywhere.

2. A hidden thread is that cryptocurrencies are integrated into the traditional financial system and participate in reshaping the US dollar financial system.

Whether it is increasing the US strategic reserves of Bitcoin while adhering to the principle of fiscal neutrality in planning, or the US version of the debt-to-equity plan to increase the scale of stablecoins to more than 2 trillion US dollars within a few years, including the upcoming market structure bill to clarify whether the regulator of the crypto market is the SEC or the CFTC, and whether PerpDEX represented by Hyperliquid can operate in the United States, these regulatory actions of Trump and Vance's public speeches all make it clear that the Trump administration regards cryptocurrency as an organic part of reshaping the US dollar financial system in the 21st century.

Therefore, 2025 is destined to be a year of uncertainty. The investment and trading of us retail investors this year is like a small boat sailing into the stormy sea. It is simply epic to make money from investment and trading this year.

But 25 years is not a year to rest on your laurels; the wise man’s way is to seek certainty amid uncertainty.

I am optimistic about two definite layout opportunities for 26 years:

US version of bond-stable currency-PayFi-RWA

CFTC regulates the crypto market - PerpDEX - Hyperliquid / Consumer Chain - Abstract

Anyway, our mission for the past 25 years is to stay at the table and secretly prepare the cards for the next 26 years.