DWF Labs' stablecoin project Falcon Finance has started selling. Is it worth participating?

Falcon Finance, a stablecoin project backed by DWF Labs, is launching its FF token sale. The project's USDf stablecoin has already achieved significant traction with a $1.5 billion circulation and over 58,000 monthly active users.

Key Features & Advantages

Universal collateral: Users can mint USDf by pledging various assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even real-world assets (RWAs) without facing liquidation risk.
Strong institutional backing: Supported by DWF Labs and a $10 million investment from WLFI, which has ties to the Trump administration.
Proven product-market fit: The stablecoin is already ranked 8th globally by circulation.
Favorable market timing: Benefits from growing stablecoin adoption, RWA tokenization trends, and crypto-friendly regulatory policies.

Offering Details & Risks

Token sale offers a two-tier pricing structure with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $350 million for stakers and $450 million for non-stakers.
Tokens are 100% unlocked at TGE, providing immediate liquidity.
Primary risk: The FF token is purely for governance and does not share in protocol revenue, unlike competitors such as MKR or AAVE.
Other concerns include intense stablecoin competition, regulatory uncertainty, and DWF Labs' mixed reputation.

Investment Outlook The project presents a high-certainty opportunity for investors bullish on stablecoins and RWA trends, though the token's utility is limited to governance.

By Stacy Muur

Compiled by Luffy, Foresight News

Falcon Finance’s FF token is about to launch on the Launchpad platform. This is no ordinary token sale, but the public debut of the flagship stablecoin project from top market maker DWF Labs, and the timing couldn’t be better.

My rating:

Overall rating: 7.8/10. Strong fundamentals and clear upside catalysts.

Project Overview

Falcon's key features

Universal collateral infrastructure: Users can pledge Bitcoin, Ethereum, SOL, stablecoins, altcoins, and even tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) to mint stablecoin USDf.
No liquidation risk: Unlike traditional collateralized debt position (CDP) protocols, Falcon uses an over-collateralization mechanism and has no liquidation process.
Income generation: Users can stake USDf to obtain sUSDf, thereby obtaining higher returns.
Multi-chain strategy: Already deployed on Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Base, with plans to expand to the Solana network.

Current traction

USDF has a circulation volume of $1.5 billion and has ranked 8th among stablecoins after only 8 months of launch.
Reserve size exceeds US$1.6 billion
Over 58,000 monthly active users
The total locked value (TVL) on Pendle exceeds $273.4 million

Falcon's core advantages

Proven product-market fit

Unlike most token sales that rely on commitments for funding, Falcon's stablecoin already boasts a $1.5 billion market capitalization. This isn't a short-term "TVL" operation, but rather a reflection of genuine demand for stablecoins.

Support from major institutions

DWF Labs: A top market maker with strong financial strength and close cooperation with major exchanges.
A $10 million investment from WLFI: Due to its connection with the Trump family, it can bring regulatory tailwinds and mainstream attention to the project.
Past performance of the Buidlpad platform: Previously launched projects such as Lombard have performed well.

Excellent market timing

The stablecoin narrative is gaining popularity, and the regulatory framework is becoming clearer.
The trend of tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) is accelerating.
The Trump administration’s cryptocurrency-friendly policies are about to be implemented.
Decentralized finance (DeFi) income products are gaining recognition from institutional investors.

Sustainable revenue flywheel

Unlike pure governance tokens, Falcon has real revenue sources:

USDF minting fee
sUSDf staking business interest rate spread income
RWA integration-related fees
Revenue from cross-chain expansion

Falcon's key risks

Token practicality is questionable

The biggest concern: FF is solely a governance token and carries no economic benefits. Unlike MKR or AAVE, where token holders can participate in protocol revenue distribution, FF holders only have voting rights. This limits the token's long-term value accumulation.

The stablecoin market is highly competitive

Competition in the stablecoin space is fierce: USDC and USDT dominate, while new entrants like PYUSD (PayPal's stablecoin) and FDUSD (Fidelity's stablecoin) are backed by major institutions. Falcon needs to prove that demand for its stablecoin can transcend the "DeFi yield farming" scenario and be sustainable.

Regulatory uncertainty

Despite its association with the Trump campaign, stablecoin regulation is still evolving, and any negative regulatory developments could impact the project’s overall model.

DWF Labs' reputational controversy

Despite being a top market maker, DWF Labs has been criticized for employing a pump-and-dump strategy in some of its investments, and its involvement could be a double-edged sword for the project.

Analysis of Offering Terms

advantage

Two-tier pricing mechanism: USDf/sUSDf stakers can enjoy a $350 million fully diluted valuation (FDV) discount, while non-stakers can enjoy a $450 million discount.
TGE 100% unlocked: No lock-up period, you can exit directly if you need to, with high flexibility.
Reasonable financing scale: The financing amount of US$4 million is not too high and is sufficient to support the project progress.
Low threshold for participation: The investment amount ranges from US$50 to US$4,000, and ordinary retail investors can participate.

shortcoming

High valuation risk: Even calculated based on a $350 million FDV, the pricing is still high for a governance token with no revenue sharing.
Only supports USD1 payment: Forcing users to enter the WLFI ecosystem is a strategic layout, but it limits users' payment options.

Catalysts and upside scenarios

Short-term catalysts (1-3 months)

TGE and exchange listing: With DWF's resources, it is highly likely to be listed on mainstream exchanges such as Binance, OKX, and Bybit.
Cross-chain scaling: Deployment to the Solana network could double the user base.
RWA product launch: integrating tokenized treasury bonds and other assets.

Medium-term catalysts (3-12 months)

Institutional adoption: Corporate finance departments use USDf for revenue management.
Clear regulation: The implementation of the stablecoin regulatory framework may drive the entire industry up.
DeFi ecosystem integration: More protocols include USDF in the range of acceptable collateral.
Revenue sharing mechanism: The token economic model may be upgraded to allow FF holders to participate in the distribution of protocol fees.

Price Prediction

Optimistic scenario (30% probability)

Target valuation: Fully diluted valuation (FDV) exceeding $1 billion (a 3-4x increase from the $350 million entry price)
Driving factors: Listing on mainstream centralized exchanges, airdrop popularity, and large-scale institutional adoption
Time period: 3-6 months after TGE

Baseline scenario (55% probability)

Target valuation: FDV reaches US$500-700 million (1.5-2 times the entry price)
Growth logic: Steady growth with the penetration of DeFi ecosystem
Time period: 6-12 months

Pessimistic scenario (15% probability)

Target valuation: FDV falls to $200-300 million (breakeven to 15% loss)
Risk triggers: Intensified competition in the stablecoin market, regulatory issues, or the exit of DWF Labs

Summarize

Falcon Finance is a project with real potential for implementation. As a functional stablecoin protocol, Falcon has achieved $1.5 billion in real-world usage, boasts institutional backing, and possesses clear growth catalysts. The token sale terms are sound, and the timing aligns with multiple macro trends.

The main risk is that FF has less utility than governance tokens with revenue-sharing mechanisms.

My conclusion: For investors who are bullish on stablecoins, the RWA tokenization trend, and the Trump administration's crypto policies, this is a highly certain investment opportunity. Considering the project's current progress and endorsements, the $350 million FDV entry price is attractive.

Action Plan

Strive for a valuation of $350 million (stake USDf/sUSDf immediately)
Complete identity verification on Buidlpad
If you agree with the project logic, you can participate in the investment according to the upper limit