Trading time: Gold price rose above $3,700 before the FOMC meeting, and BTC accumulated over 800,000 BTC sell orders in the $117,000-118,000 range.

Gold prices surged above $3,700 ahead of the FOMC meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed. Analysts from JPMorgan and Bank of America project gold could exceed $4,000 by Q1 2026, potentially reaching $5,000 if Fed independence weakens.
Bitcoin faces strong resistance at $117,000-$118,000, with over 800,000 BTC in sell orders. Analysts highlight key factors for breakout: ETF inflows, short-term holder behavior, and post-FOMC price stability. Some predict targets up to $200,000 based on cyclical patterns.
Ethereum held above $4,450, with analysts viewing any pullback as a buying opportunity. Predictions suggest ETH could rise to $5,500 by mid-October, with bullish flag patterns indicating a potential $6,750 target. Citigroup forecasts a more conservative $4,300 by year-end.
Binance's BNB broke $960, boosting its market cap past $133 billion, surpassing UBS. This surge is linked to founder Changpeng Zhao's potential return and Binance's resolved oversight issues with the US Department of Justice.
Google launched the open-source AI Payments Protocol (AP2) with partners including Coinbase and the Ethereum Foundation, aiming to automate transfers between AI agents. The Ethereum Foundation also formed a new dAI team to integrate blockchain and AI.
Key data: BTC at $116,441 (+24.69% YTD), ETH at $4,500.28 (+35.45% YTD). BTC ETFs saw $292 million inflows (7th consecutive day), while ETH ETFs had $61.74 million outflows.
Notable events include the Fed rate decision, Powell's press conference, and significant token unlocks for Cronos (CRO), Velo (VELO), ZKsync (ZK), and Fasttoken (FTN).

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

On the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global markets were permeated with caution. The record-breaking rally in US stocks came to a halt, with both the S&P and Nasdaq retreating from their all-time highs. However, the Chinese concept stock index bucked the trend and closed up nearly 2%, reaching a new closing high since February 2022. The US dollar index fell to a 3.5-year low, while the offshore renminbi rose above 7.11 during trading, reaching a 10-month high. Gold prices, taking advantage of the momentum, broke through $3,700, reaching a new high.

The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points . Renowned financial journalist Nick Timiraos points to the recent slowdown in job growth as the primary reason, noting that Fed Chairman Powell has signaled a priority focus on employment over inflation. Both JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America predict that gold prices could exceed $4,000 an ounce by the first quarter of 2026, emphasizing that investor demand has replaced central banks as the core driver of gold prices. They also warn that if the Fed's independence is undermined, gold prices could even reach $5,000 an ounce within two quarters.

Bitcoin is making its fourth attempt to challenge the key resistance zone of $117,000 to $118,000. Analyst Murphy noted that over 800,000 BTC are backlogged with sell orders within this range, making a breakthrough difficult. He believes that future trends will focus on ETF inflows, short-term holder profitability, and whether the price can hold above $117,000 after a pullback. AlphaBTC also predicts that the price could reach $118,000 in the short term, but whether it can hold above $115,000 after the FOMC rate decision is announced will be crucial. While Rekt Capital considers the recapture of the $114,000 support level a positive sign, he argues that a successful pullback and hold above $117,200 after the daily close would further intensify the upward trend. Although CryptoQuant data shows that eight of ten bullish indicators have turned bearish, some traders believe the macro environment still supports BTC's upward trajectory. Investor Jelle pointed out that the weekly RSI indicator sent a historic bullish signal, which may push the price to $155,000; Internet economist Timothy Peterson even predicted based on the cyclical pattern that BTC may reach $200,000 within 170 days.

Ethereum remained above the key trendline of $4,450 ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision. Mark Newton, an analyst at Tom Lee's fund, stated that Ethereum's (ETH) current pullback is a normal correction that was not seen last week. He believes that ETH prices are unlikely to fall below the previous low of $4,233, but could drop to $4,418 or $4,375 this week. He recommends investors take advantage of price pullbacks to buy on the dip, predicting that ETH prices will rise to around $5,500 by mid-October. Several analysts, such as Ash Crypto and TheBullishTradR, believe that even a short-term price correction to the $4,100 to $4,350 range would still present a good buying opportunity. Tesseract CEO James Harris also believes that the bullish flag pattern formed by ETH suggests that a successful breakout could reach a target price of $6,750. Meanwhile, Wall Street giant Citigroup has a relatively conservative base case forecast of $4,300 by the end of the year.

In the broader market, Binance (BNB ) briefly broke through $960, boosted by the suspected return of founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and news of Binance's agreement with the US Department of Justice to release oversight. Its market capitalization exceeded $133 billion, surpassing UBS. Meanwhile, recent developments in the AI field include Google, in collaboration with Coinbase, the Ethereum Foundation, and EigenLayer, launching the open-source AI Payments Protocol (AP2) . This protocol aims to automate fund transfers between AI agents and is seen as ushering in the era of the "machine economy." Furthermore, the Ethereum Foundation recently established a dedicated dAI team dedicated to establishing Ethereum as core infrastructure for AI development and promoting related technical standards.

2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, September 17)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

Bitcoin: $116,441 (+24.69% YTD), daily spot trading volume $41.051 billion
Ethereum: $4,500.28 (+35.45% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $30.023 billion
Fear of corruption index: 54 (neutral)
Average gas: BTC: 1.11 sat/vB, ETH: 0.12 Gwei
Market share: BTC 57.7%, ETH 14.01%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ETH, XRP, AVNT, DOGE, BTC
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.56%/50.44%
Sector gains and losses: CeFi rose 1.78%, L2 rose 1.34%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 94,027 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$195 million, including US$26.8 million in BTC, US$61.22 million in ETH, and US$11.01 million in SOL.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($115,184.92), lower channel line ($112,904.03)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($4523.04), lower line ($4433.47)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of September 16)

Bitcoin ETF: +$292 million, 7 consecutive days of net inflows
Ethereum ETF: -$61.7435 million, with only the Bitwise ETF ETHW achieving net inflows

4. Today's Outlook

Aster will hold a TGE on September 17th and will airdrop 7.04 million ASTER tokens to users.
Binance delisted BAKE, HIFI, and SLF on September 17th
Binance Alpha to List Lombard (BARD) and DeAgent AI (AIA) on September 18th
Bloomberg Analyst: REX-Osprey Dogecoin ETF is expected to be listed on September 18
US Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) for September 17 : 4.50% previously, 4.25% expected (02:00, September 18)
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference. (September 18, 02:30)
US President Trump was interviewed by Fox News in the UK. (September 18, 03:00)
Cronos (CRO) will unlock 1.17 billion tokens on September 17, worth approximately $360 million.
Velo (VELO) will unlock 2.55 billion tokens on September 17, worth approximately $37.71 million
ZKsync (ZK) will unlock approximately 173 million tokens at 4:00 PM on September 17th, representing 3.61% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $10.7 million.
Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock approximately 20 million tokens at 8:00 am on September 18, accounting for 2.08% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately US$89.8 million.

The biggest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: MYX up 42.7%, Story up 8.4%, Immutable up 7.1%, PancakeSwap up 5.3%, and Filecoin up 5.2%.