Location, location, location. I have to say it three times. It is very important to choose the right location. Otherwise, your property will be wiped out at best, or even your entire family will be killed. a. There was a Jewish family that split into two groups during World War II. One group fled to France, but was wiped out and all were sent to concentration camps. Some relatives fled to Portugal and finally survived. b. In 1943, many Nazis had already begun secretly remitting money to South America. They did not remitting money to Eurasia or the United States. This choice was correct at least at the time. Of course, they were still liquidated in South America after the war, but that is another story. c. In 1991, the majority of residents of the Soviet Republic lost all their property overnight, because most ordinary people were fully invested in the Soviet Republic. If you are in trouble, you should see the big picture from the small details and make your own judgment: think about who is winning the game? In 1942, Nomura Securities had sensed that Japan might eventually lose the war from the food shortage in Japan and the removal of the park fence around the imperial palace for iron smelting. Although newspapers and radio stations only broadcast good news about the war, Nomura observed that many naval officers and pilots who participated in the Battle of Midway and the Coral Sea had geishas, and when they failed to return, their geisha girlfriends began to panic. The Nomura family sensed that things were not going well and began to gradually sell their stocks, even shorting them. But as a Japanese consortium, they had no way to allocate assets to the victorious countries, so what should they do? They asked themselves, if Japan lost the war and rebuilt after the war, what should they hold now? They believed that land and real estate would be the best value-preserving tools after the war, so they bought commercial and residential real estate. These assets provided funds for Nomura Securities' rapid expansion after the war, and Nomura Securities eventually became a major securities company in Japan. Case of Germany: In the 1930s, many German Jewish aristocratic families were full of trust in the country and believed that "we are also Germans, and the storm will soon pass." They had assets, status, and social recognition, and had no sense of urgency to leave their homeland. However, their judgment was soon shattered by reality. After the Nazis came to power, Germany imposed strict controls on foreign exchange and imposed heavy taxes of up to 78% on asset transfers (foreign exchange). By the "Crystal Night" in 1938, more and more people realized that they had to leave. But at that time, they couldn't leave even if they wanted to . Visas were difficult to obtain, funds were frozen, and many people were eventually trapped within the country. This history reminds us: when you feel that "there is no need to leave now", maybe it is the time when you still have a choice. ——Einstein made a good judgment and went to Princeton to immigrate and teach very early. - In troubled times, don't go all in
a. In 1937, even Churchill was attracted by the bull market in the United States and took advantage of the leverage to go long, but he was liquidated in 1938. Later, he paid off his debts by continuously writing and publishing. b. The wealthy Jewish people in Germany, because most of their assets were exposure to Germany (real estate, businesses, currency), were eventually like a frog in boiling water. The later they left, the more reluctant they were to give up their sunk costs, and in the end, they lost both their money and their lives. c. This is even more true in modern times. The average lifespan of companies in the S&P 500 index has shrunk from 35 years in the 1950s to 10-15 years. In 1958 , the average lifespan of S&P 500 companies was 61 years; in 1980 , it dropped to about 30 years; around 2020 , it has dropped to about 18 years; and by 2030 , it is predicted that it may only be around 12 years. We need to be aware of the risks of "self-trust" and "third-party trust": we need to think about the reconstruction of the political system and wealth in the great changes. To put it bluntly, it is possible that all previous property rights documents will be invalidated . The money you deposit in the bank, the gold you deposit, and the real estate you buy are essentially third-party trusts. You may think that the real estate should not be in my name? But in fact, the real estate depends on the local government's recognition of your property rights documents, so in essence, you are also entrusted to a government. a. During World War II, the estates of Polish nobles in their country were finally confiscated by Germany. After the war, they thought they could get them back, but Poland was assigned to the Soviet Union's sphere of influence in the Yalta Agreement, which means that the nature of the regime has changed and private property rights are not recognized at all. In the past 3/4 years, all assets of Russian rich people, especially oligarchs, in NATO countries have been frozen. When NATO countries want to impose sanctions, the most difficult thing for Russian oligarchs to take away is real estate in London and New York. b . During World War II, Japanese assets in the United States were also frozen or even confiscated. On December 7, 1941, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. On December 8, the United States declared war on Japan and officially joined World War II. After that, the United States quickly took measures to freeze the assets of the Japanese government, companies and individuals in the United States. Among them, 120,000 Japanese (two-thirds of whom were citizens with American passports) were sent to wartime internment camps. Many families were forced to sell their properties, farms, and businesses at low prices before leaving or directly lost them. After the war, most people were unable to recover these properties. c. At the end of World War II in 1945, the Tito government of Yugoslavia issued an order to collectively deprive all Germans in Yugoslavia (including civilians) of their nationality and property rights . They were regarded as a group of war criminals and were no longer allowed to own land, property, or enjoy normal civil rights. Thousands of German civilians (including children and the elderly) were thrown into labor camps, and an estimated 50,000-60,000 people died in these camps . In particular, from the end of 1944 to 1946, systematic cleansing occurred in some areas: German men were forced to work or shot on the spot; German women and children were raped, abused and massacred. Regarding the custody of gold (self custody? Or 3rd party custody?): a. The gold that the Jews entrusted to the safe deposit boxes of French banks was opened by the German army after the German occupation and all the gold was confiscated. However, the gold buried in a secret place known only to the Jews was preserved after the war. b. I also heard a very interesting story. A Jewish family stored 10% of their family wealth in gold. Because of the experience of "three-party trusteeship" being confiscated during World War II, they kept their own gold and exchanged most of the gold for gold coins instead of gold bars. Because only gold coins can be used for small payments, you can buy your way through the chaos, pass through many checkpoints from the war zone, and reach the area where you want to take refuge . c. In 1939, 20% of the wealth of most French families was in gold bars, which were either stored in Switzerland or buried in the backyards of castles. In those terrible years, there were three problems with using gold to hedge against disaster: First, in order to sell some gold, you had to find a real buyer or a black market dealer. In that brutal society full of informers and betrayers, anything could happen. You could end up stabbed to death in an alley or locked up in a cellar by the Gestapo. Second, the price of gold would be greatly discounted by both the real buyer and the black market dealer, but since there was no open market for it, this was inevitable. Third, if you stayed in occupied France, you had to hide your gold. From the fall of 1940, all French banks had to report the contents of their safe deposit boxes to the Germans. The occupation authorities issued promissory notes to "borrow" the gold and then shipped it to Germany. After the war, these promissory notes were not redeemed because the Nazi government destroyed the relevant archives during the Battle of Berlin. As the Allied forces approached Paris, any remaining gold was confiscated by German officials to help them escape the impending disaster. However, in the chaos of the final years of the war, gold buried in the backyard was more valuable and safer than any other asset class, such as real estate or businesses. In general, the history of World War II teaches us not to lock up gold and jewelry in a bank safe in your home country. Summary: Troubled times are the norm, prosperous times are the exception. In the past 3,500 years of recorded human history, there are less than 300 years without recorded wars. Our advice to everyone is: First, don’t go all in: diversify your asset classes, geography, and third-party custody/self-custody; second, a gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall, be prepared for trouble before it happens, and don’t have an ostrich mentality. When everyone wants to leave, you can’t leave.
Previously, Bill served as Vice President of Global Investment and Financing at Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, managing an asset portfolio of over $20 billion, setting a record for the world's largest management scale in the crypto field. He also served as a director of the Ton Foundation under Telegram, which has over 1 billion monthly active users. His career also includes six years in charge of technology sector investment at JD.com, and leading Internet investment at Trustbridge Capital, an internationally renowned investment institution.
Bill Qian is currently based in Dubai and is the host of the podcast channel "Bill It Up" (https://youtube.com/@billitup) for global users. The channel is committed to building the world's first cross-border communication platform connecting the East and the West, AI and humanities.
