Trading time: Market sentiment is bearish in the short term. Bitcoin and Ethereum are cautious about $100,000 and $4,000 respectively. Will the launch of WLFI intensify the bloodsucking?

The cryptocurrency market faces a critical period with bearish short-term sentiment. Bitcoin is testing key support at $108,000, with analysts warning of potential drops to $105,000 or even $80,000 if it breaks below $98,000. Ethereum shows relative strength but may still retest $4,000 support.
Broader financial markets are cautious due to upcoming U.S. employment data, inflation reports, and the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Historically, September is weak for U.S. stocks, and some predict a 5-10% market correction.
Silver prices hit $40/ounce for the first time since 2011, up over 40% year-to-date, with Citigroup forecasting $43 due to potential U.S. import tariffs.
The WLFI token launch tonight at 9 PM is highly anticipated, with attention on its ecosystem projects Blockstreet (BLOCK) and Dolomite (DOLO). Market maker Jump Crypto is suspected to be involved, and the project has significant institutional backing.
Key data: Bitcoin at $107,863, Ethereum at $4,397.19, Fear & Greed Index neutral at 47. Over $230 million in crypto liquidations occurred in 24 hours, led by Ethereum.
ETF flows show net outflows: Bitcoin ETFs -$127 million, Ethereum ETFs -$165 million.
Notable events today include U.S. market closure, WLFI TGE, Starknet's decentralization step, and token unlocks for SUI, ZETA, and ENA.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The market stands at a critical juncture. The next two weeks will see a flurry of employment reports, key inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, all of which will set the tone. Historically, September is typically the worst-performing month for US stocks . However, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is currently at unusually low levels, and the S&P 500 has avoided a significant correction for several consecutive days. This uncanny calm has some Wall Street analysts concerned. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee predicts a 5% to 10% market correction in the fall, followed by a year-end rebound. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research has questioned the likelihood of a September rate cut, arguing that persistent inflation risks could cause the Fed to maintain interest rates, resulting in a short-term market shock.

Notably, spot silver prices have broken through $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011 , with a year-to-date increase of over 40%. The USGS's proposal to include silver in its "critical minerals list" has been interpreted by Citigroup as a prelude to potential import tariffs of up to 50%. The bank maintains its bullish silver price forecast of $43 per ounce. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised Cambricon's target price to 2,104 yuan within a week , citing strong earnings and growing AI chip shipments, citing its leadership in China's AI chip sector.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is facing a critical test. Overall market sentiment is cautiously bearish. A report from Greeks.live notes that Bitcoin is weak, lacking strong support at the key $108,000 price level. The market attributes the current correction to "market fatigue" or potential manipulation, and is watching for potential volatility triggered by the non-farm payroll data on September 5th. Pessimism is primarily focused on concerns about key support levels. Analyst Ted believes Bitcoin may have formed a short-term top at $124,000 and plans to short it if the price rebounds to the $115,000-$120,000 range. Big Smokey and Altcoin Sherpa both believe there is a short-term risk of a drop to $105,000 or lower, citing selling by long-term whale wallets, stagnant inflows into spot ETFs, and weakness in traditional markets as key sources of pressure. Key short-term support lies at $104,000. A more pessimistic prediction is that trader Roman warns that a fall below the $98,000-$100,000 range could "officially confirm the end of the bull market." AlphaBTC also points out that a repeat of the bearish crossover signal on the daily chart could lead to a price retest of $92,000, or even a drop to as low as $80,000. However, there are also optimistic voices in the market. Michaël van de Poppe sees $102,000-$104,000 as an ideal entry range. CrypNuevo believes that the current market is more likely to deviate than a deep correction, predicting that large funds will take advantage of panic buying before interest rate adjustments. Even if the price may test $107,200 or pull back to $94,000 in the short term, he believes that the $117,000 CME gap will eventually be filled.

In contrast to Bitcoin's weakness, Ethereum has shown relative strength. Analyst Ted noted that despite Ethereum's recent outperformance, it may still face pressure to retest the key support level of $4,000 in the short term. On-chain data shows that a prominent Bitcoin whale is continuously converting its Bitcoin holdings into Ethereum, having recently sold over 837,000 ETH. Analyst Axel Bitblaze believes that insufficient liquidity is the primary issue in the current market, but with the Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts and ending quantitative tightening, liquidity is expected to return in October or November, driving a market rebound and paving the way for a new bull market in 2026.

Regarding market dynamics, the WLFI token will be the center of attention with its Time-Based General Evolution (TGE) event at 9:00 PM tonight , attracting interest in its ecosystem projects, Blockstreet (BLOCK) and Dolomite (DOLO). On-chain data indicates that well-known market maker Jump Crypto is suspected of acting as a market maker for WLFI. The project has received investments from several institutions, including DWF Labs ($25 million), Aqua One Fund ($100 million), and Nasdaq-listed ALT5 Sigma ($1.5 billion). Momentum 6 partners have also stated they hold a seven-figure position.

2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, September 1)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

Bitcoin : $107,863 (+15.24% YTD), daily spot trading volume $30.48 billion
Ethereum : $4,397.19 (+31.69% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $23.75 billion
Fear of Corruption Index: 47 (Neutral)
Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.274 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.05%, ETH 14%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings : XRP, ETH, BTC, SOL, POL
24-hour BTC long-short ratio : 49.88%/50.12%
Sector gains and losses: GameFi fell 7.76%, AI fell 5.38%
24-hour liquidation data : A total of 100,327 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$230 million, including BTC liquidation of US$33.58 million, ETH liquidation of US$57.0296 million, and SOL liquidation of US$13.5184 million.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel : upper channel line ($112,577.10), lower channel line ($110,347.85)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel : upper line of the channel ($4477.41), lower line ($4388.75)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of August 29)

Bitcoin ETF : -$127 million, first net outflow after 4 days of net inflow
Ethereum ETF : -$165 million

4. Today's Outlook

US stock markets will be closed on September 1
WLFI will be launched on the Ethereum mainnet on September 1st, and early investors will unlock 20%
Starknet will take a major step towards decentralized ordering on September 1st, with support for Bitcoin staking to follow in the coming weeks.
Binance Wallet Launches Forest (FOREST) in the 36th TGE
Binance Alpha to Launch Quack AI (Q) on September 2nd
Trump's son Eric Trump will attend Metaplanet's special shareholders meeting on September 1
Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 44 million tokens at 8:00 am on September 1st, accounting for 1.25% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately $145 million.
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 44.26 million tokens at 8:00 AM on September 1st, representing 4.55% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $8.4 million.
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens at 3:00 PM on September 2nd, representing 0.64% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $27.1 million.

The biggest declines among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: Four.meme fell 22.4%, Conflux fell 10.5%, Pi Network fell 9.4%, Pyth Network fell 8.6%, and Fartcoin fell 6.8%.