Trading time: Bitcoin is considered to be in a correction as long as it does not fall below $108,000. Ethereum is testing the support level of $4,240 in the short term.

Market Context & Institutional Sentiment: Despite the US government shutdown, the September CPI report will be released by month-end, providing key inflation data. Over half of institutional investors plan to double digital asset allocations in three years, with 40% establishing dedicated departments. Tokenization is expected to comprise 10-24% of institutional portfolios by 2030.
Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis: BTC faces selling pressure below $123,801, with analysts warning of a potential retest of $108,000 support. However, the $108,000-$118,000 range is viewed as a key demand zone. $4.3B in BTC options expire soon, with a max pain point at $117,000.
Ethereum (ETH) Fundamentals & Price Outlook: ETH's on-chain activity hits a "new normal" with over 9.5M daily contract calls, driven by RWA tokenization (sector value: $11.71B). Analysts project ETH could reach $7,300-$13,559, with $10,000 as a key target. Support is at $4,240, resistance at $5,000. $940M in ETH options expire, with a max pain point of $4,430.
Altcoin & Meme Coin Movements: Privacy tokens surge—ZEC (+50%) and RAIL (+120%) rally, possibly due to Robinhood listings. ZORA jumps 62% in 24 hours. Meme coins like "Xiu Xian" and BNBHolder gain traction following Binance's Meme Rush launch, with 13 wallets profiting over $1M.
Key Data & ETF Flows: BTC trades at $121,713; ETH at $4,366. Bitcoin ETFs see +$198M inflows (9th consecutive day), while Ethereum ETFs record -$8.54M outflows. Market sentiment is neutral (Fear & Greed Index: 54).
Today's Outlook & Notable Events: Linea and Babylon tokens unlock significant amounts today. Top gainers include Zcash (+53.8%) and Litecoin (+9.5%). Hot topics include Monad's airdrop on Oct 14 and a $20M Hyperliquid whale hack.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Despite the US federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has urgently recalled key staff to ensure the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which appears to be related to the statutory process for the annual Social Security cost adjustment. Originally scheduled for October 15th, the report is now expected to be released before the end of the month, providing key inflation data to the market ahead of the Federal Reserve's key policy meeting at the end of the month. Against this backdrop, institutional interest in digital assets has not diminished, but rather increased. State Street Bank's "2025 Digital Asset Outlook" report shows that more than half of institutional investors expect to double their digital asset allocations over the next three years, and nearly 60% plan to increase their holdings within the next year. Over 40% of these institutions have established dedicated digital asset departments. Institutions generally believe in the significant potential of asset tokenization to improve transparency, transaction efficiency, and reduce compliance costs, and predict that by 2030, 10% to 24% of institutional portfolios will be tokenized, particularly in private markets and fixed income.

Bitcoin prices continue to face selling pressure after falling below $120,000 yesterday. Analyst Man of Bitcoin believes downward pressure will persist as long as prices remain below $123,801. Trader Roman also noted a bearish divergence on higher timeframes, highlighting a lack of volume and momentum, warning of a possible retest of the range low of $108,000. Skew similarly observed a potential for renewed bearish control in the short term. However, Credibull Crypto Analysis considers the $108,000 to $118,000 range a key demand zone, arguing that any pullback above this level is "reasonable" as long as prices don't fall below the local invalidation level at $108,000. Trader Crypto Chase is venturing into positions after prices reclaim $121,400, viewing it as a "last chance." Analyst Timo Oinonen, using the MVRV ratio, predicts a fourth-quarter price target of $140,000 to $150,000. In addition, $4.3 billion worth of Bitcoin options are about to expire, with a maximum pain point price of $117,000 and a put/call ratio of 1.12, indicating cautious sentiment in the options market.

Ethereum's fundamentals continue to strengthen, and on-chain activity has entered a "new normal." According to CryptoQuant data, its average daily internal contract call volume has climbed to over 9.5 million. This is driven by regulatory clarity, institutional capital inflows, and the booming RWA tokenization. The total value of the RWA sector has soared to $11.71 billion, with Ethereum accounting for over 56% of this. However, prominent short-selling firm Kerrisdale Capital has questioned the business model of holding Ethereum as a treasury reserve, arguing that its premium is collapsing. However, the firm has stated that it is not shorting Ethereum itself. Regarding price analysis, The DeFi Report notes that ETH is currently 92% above its 200-week moving average. Based on various models, it predicts that its price could reach between $7,300 and $13,559, with the optimistic scenario potentially exceeding $10,000. Several analysts share this view. Ash Crypto believes that ETH is in a strong bull market, with support at $4,240 and resistance at $5,000. A breakout could quickly push it above $6,000. Crypto Caesar believes the current pullback may be a final shakeout before reaching $10,000, while Jelle notes that ETH has broken out of a bullish megaphone pattern, also targeting $10,000. Man of Bitcoin suggests that a sustained breakout above $4,558 is needed to confirm the end of the broader correction. Options market data shows that $940 million worth of ETH options are set to expire at 4:00 PM today, with a maximum pain point of $4,430. The put/call ratio is 0.9, indicating a more bullish fund flow.

Possibly fueled by yesterday's positive news about its listing on Robinhood US, the ZORA token saw its price surge over 62% in 24 hours. Meanwhile, BSC chain meme coins remain popular. Within less than an hour of its launch, Binance Wallet's newly launched Meme Rush mode saw 13 wallets profit over $1 million by trading BNBHolder tokens. The token's market capitalization peaked at nearly $170 million before shrinking to approximately $40 million. Furthermore, after Binance co-founder He Yi published a lengthy article titled "Come! Let's Cultivate Immortality Together!", the meme coin "Xiu Xian" (Xiu Xian) based on the token quickly took the market by storm, reaching a market capitalization exceeding $45 million and topping the Binance Meme Rush leaderboard. Yesterday, the Ethereum Foundation announced the "Kohaku" roadmap, which aims to enhance wallet privacy and security through a modular framework. The initial version will be an Ambire wallet extension, developed in collaboration with teams such as Ambire and Railgun. Perhaps influenced by this , Railgun's token RAIL broke through $5, with a 24-hour increase of more than 120%. The privacy-related protocol Zcash (ZEC) briefly broke through $270 before falling back, with a 24-hour increase of 50%.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, October 10)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

Bitcoin: $121,713 (+29.92% YTD), daily spot trading volume $66.2 billion
Ethereum: $4,366 (+30.15% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $41.84 billion
Fear of corruption index: 54 (neutral)
Average gas: BTC: 1.13 sat/vB, ETH: 0.15 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.4%, ETH 12.7%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: IN, BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 48.32%/51.68%
Sector gains and losses: L2 sector fell 4.98%, CeFi sector fell 4.56%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 167,517 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$591 million, including US$163 million in BTC, US$153 million in ETH, and US$35.6382 million in SOL.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($121,099.48), lower channel line ($118,701.47)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($4453.19), lower line ($4365.01)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of October 9)

Bitcoin ETF: +$198 million, 9th consecutive day of net inflows
Ethereum ETF: -$8.54 million, ending 8 consecutive days of net inflows

4. Today's Outlook

Aster will launch the second phase of airdrop eligibility inquiry at 21:00 on October 10th.
Binance will delist HOME/FDUSD, SPK/FDUSD, and USUAL/FDUSD spot trading pairs on October 10th.
Binance will launch the 50th HODLer airdrop project Walrus (WAL) on October 10th
Linea (LINEA) will unlock approximately 1.08 billion tokens at 7:00 PM on October 10th, representing 6.57% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $29.6 million.
Babylon (BABY) will unlock approximately 321 million tokens at 6:00 PM on October 10th, representing 24.74% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $17.4 million.
PINGPONG (PINGPONG) will unlock approximately 518 million tokens on October 11, accounting for 1.23% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately $46.17 million.
Holoworld AI (HOLO) will unlock approximately 109 million tokens on October 11th, representing 5.37% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $28 million.

The biggest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: Zcash up 53.8%, ChainOpera AI up 16.8%, Litecoin up 9.5%, Bittensor up 6.3%, and NEAR Protocol up 4.8%.