Bitcoin's bloodsucking market is in a self-reinforcing stage. Previously, it only sucked the blood of altcoins, but in the past two days it has begun to suck the blood of MeMe coins on the chain.
I observed this morning that the market sentiment on Twitter has become very bad, and the voices of crypto nihilism and BTC Maxi fundamentalism are very loud.
Many respected traders and OGs even lamented that "the copycat season is over."
From the historical data presented in Dune’s Alts Buy Signal chart, there are 4 patterns between BTC and altcoins:
Mode 1: BTC rises and altcoins rise In this mode, both BTC and altcoins are in an upward trend, and BTC.D (BTC market value share) may fluctuate or decline. This is the bull market boom period.
This is the time to go long. If the altcoin is stronger than BTC, you can increase your position. Otherwise, you need to be cautious.
Mode 2: BTC falls and altcoins fall. In this mode, both BTC and altcoins are in a downward trend.
This is the time to de-risk and buy more stablecoins and blue-chip tokens. The only time it is worth considering shorting. For long-term trend traders, it is recommended to wait for the trend to reverse. For long-term holders, DCA or Buy the dip is recommended.
Pattern 3: BTC falls and altcoins rise. This pattern rarely occurs. When BTC fluctuates and does not fall aggressively, it may be a short-term altcoin season. Consider increasing risk exposure.
Pattern 4: BTC rises and altcoins fall BTC outperforms the market in the upward trend, and BTC.D continues to reach new highs. This pattern usually occurs before halving or at the beginning of a bull market.
At this stage, it is recommended to take the opportunity to accumulate altcoins and wait for an outbreak.
The above is the historical pattern summarized by @cryptokoryo .
It seems that we are now in a state of mode, but we have to admit that the duration and degree of the decoupling of BTC and altcoins this time far exceed historical cases.
In addition, after the approval of the BTC spot ETF, the market was worried that it would change the pattern of capital allocation to crypto assets, and MSTR became the hottest transaction in the U.S. stock market yesterday, which seemed to verify that this worry was becoming a reality, making the skepticism of the alt-season more convincing.
But as an eternal crypto optimist, I can still see "disruptive innovation" in rapid iteration in the fields of chain abstraction, PayFi, Web3 AI Agent, Bitcoin ecology, etc., and I can feel the push of "exponential growth" in the fields of MeMe coin and consumer chain. At this time, talking about the "end of history" of altcoins is an irrational emotional catharsis in my eyes. If such a market makes you feel anxious and hesitant, you might as well take some time to observe the altcoin projects that are doing things:
- Chain abstraction infra @ParticleNtwrk
- Chain abstract fat application @infinex_app
- New paradigm infra from Cosmos: @initia
- Bitcoin Ecosystem Idealist: @NervosNetwork
- Bitcoin L2 backed by the world's largest Bitcoin mining company: @build_on_bob
- Cooperate with Ai16z to create a platform for Ai Agent asset issuance and technological equality: @vvaifudotfun
- Solana L2: @SonicSVM successfully gained 1M followers on Tiktok
Peace of mind leads to success. A peaceful mind is the best medicine for us to stay calm in the stormy sea of trading.
