Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
1. Market Observation
Gold recently suffered a dramatic drop after reaching a record high near $4,380 . While market analysts believe that long-term rationales such as inflation hedging and expectations of interest rate cuts remain robust, technical indicators, market sentiment, and institutional positioning all indicate overcrowding. Gold prices have significantly deviated from their correlation with traditional drivers such as real interest rates and the US dollar, leading to diverging views on Wall Street. JPMorgan Chase and HSBC have warned that gold will face challenges if the Federal Reserve raises its terminal rate projections; legendary investor Bill Gross has even bluntly described it as a "momentum/meme asset." However, Bank of America believes that unconventional fiscal policies will continue to benefit gold. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, fundamentally views gold as the most mature form of money, a hedge against fiat currencies (essentially debt), and has revealed that it is systematically replacing US Treasuries as the "risk-free asset" in central bank reserves.
Meanwhile, AI is attracting significant attention as a new macroeconomic variable. Goldman Sachs believes that the massive capital expenditures in the AI sector are sustainable and will significantly boost labor productivity, while Galaxy Digital Research Director Alex Thorn also sees it as the core force driving the next bull market. However, Alliance co-founder Qiao Wang warns that if the AI bubble bursts, the crypto market could experience a significant correction, entering a high-risk danger zone.
Bitcoin's price has rebounded above $111,000 after being impacted by a number of macroeconomic news headlines. Despite the price rebound, market sentiment remains highly divided. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.23 billion last week, the second-highest on record. The repayment process required of the Mt. Gox trustee by October 31st could lead to a potential sell-off of approximately 22,253 BTC, worth approximately $2.4 billion. Many whales and celebrities have become bearish on the market. Among them, a whale who profited $160 million by precisely shorting the market before the October 11th flash crash has opened another short position worth approximately $75.93 million at $109,133.1. Furthermore, addresses associated with Mechanism Capital co-founder Andrew Kang hold $31.14 million in BTC short positions and $46.86 million in Ethereum short positions, with liquidation prices of $115,000 and $4,073, respectively. Crypto influencer Ansem has also stated that he will no longer be bullish on the crypto market unless Bitcoin returns above $112,000. Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer of Kronos Research, noted that Bitcoin's current key support and resistance levels are $107,000 and $110,000, respectively. Bitcoin is currently testing resistance between $111,700 and $115,500. A strong break above $111,000 could trigger short-covering, further accelerating its upward momentum. However, significant short-term risks remain, with continued geopolitical tensions between the US and China weighing on investor confidence. Analyst Crypto Tony predicts that Bitcoin could fall below $100,000, finding a bottom only in the $91,000 to $95,000 range.
However, bullish momentum cannot be ignored. A mysterious whale has increased its long position to $250 million, including 1,610.93 Bitcoins. Analyst Charles Edwards believes that a break above $120,000 could quickly push the price to $150,000. Technically, analyst Pat noted that the Bitcoin-gold price ratio has reached a historical low, signaling the possibility of a new bull market. Although the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to "Extreme Fear," the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached its lowest level since April, prompting analyst Sykodelic to suggest this presents a contrarian trading opportunity. Ray Dalio stated that he holds a small amount of Bitcoin as a long-term diversification asset alongside gold, but also noted its drawbacks, such as its inability to be held by central banks. Overall, if Bitcoin can successfully break through the $111,000 resistance level, the market could enter a new upward trend. However, if sentiment deteriorates or selling pressure unleashes, a pullback below $100,000 cannot be ruled out.
Regarding Ethereum, Tom Lee's Ethereum treasury company, BitMine, has accumulated 379,271 ETH, worth approximately $1.5 billion, since the October 11 crash. Tom Lee himself reiterated that Ethereum will become a pillar of the digital economy and that the current cyclical peak is not here. Meanwhile, the address associated with HEX founder Richard Heart, who had been dormant for two years, has also begun frequently consolidating his holdings of 154,825 ETH, totaling $611 million. Technical analysis suggests that Ethereum's current support levels include the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the bullish support level around $3,500. Renowned technical analyst John Bollinger even suggests that the chart may be forming a bullish "W-bottom" reversal pattern. Analyst FOUR predicts that if the rebound momentum continues, ETH prices could break through the $4,450-4,500 range, with trader Luca even seeing the possibility of a new high of $5,200. On-chain MVRV data also supports the view that the price has entered a new upward cycle. If the price remains above the mean band, there is a high probability that ETH will reach the $4,500-5,000 range by the end of October. However, it should be noted that if the price falls below the $3,550 support level, it may trigger a further correction to $3,000-3,200. Currently, the market is generally concerned about the strong support area of $3,800-3,900 and whether it can successfully break through the key resistance area of $4,100.
Regarding the core market narrative, crypto influencer Yuzhong Kuangshui believes that the crypto market will be dominated by "adoption" over the next three to five years, with stablecoins having the greatest potential to become this core narrative. He noted that savings activities are popular due to their low risk and high returns, while speculation in stablecoin infrastructure tokens carries a high risk. However, the market's volatility also presents risks and lessons. Reflecting on the "October 11th Crash," the founder of Wintermute noted that the plunge was triggered by specific news and amplified by high leverage and flawed trading mechanisms. Going forward, liquidity may further concentrate in mainstream assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, while altcoin and meme coin markets may experience a short-term decline in popularity. Joshua Deuk, Head of Trading at Mozaik Capital , also believes that market confidence has been dampened, and the market may enter a period of volatile accumulation in the short term.
2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, October 20)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)
Bitcoin: $111,125 (+18.78% YTD), daily spot trading volume $56.57 billion
Ethereum: $4,075 (+22.1% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $34.77 billion
Fear and Corruption Index: 29 (panic)
Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.108 Gwei
Market share: BTC 59.61%, ETH 12.48%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ZBT, XRP, ETH, BTC, SOL
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.3%/50.7%
Sector gains and losses: L2 sector rose 10.2%, Meme sector rose 6.9%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 122,150 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$509 million, including US$177 million in BTC, US$170 million in ETH, and US$33.95 million in ENA.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($113,279.91), lower channel line ($111,036.75)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($4095.13), lower channel line ($4014.04)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF flows (as of October 17)
Bitcoin ETF: - $367 million, 3 consecutive days of net outflows
Ethereum ETF: - $232 million, with no net inflows across all nine ETFs
4. Today's Outlook
The Federal Reserve held a conference on payment innovation, discussing stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization. Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivered the opening remarks. (October 21, 9:00 PM)
LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock approximately 25.71 million tokens at 7:00 PM on October 20th, representing 7.86% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $44.2 million.
KAITO (KAITO) will unlock approximately 8.35 million tokens at 8:00 PM on October 20th, accounting for 3.06% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $8.7 million.
The biggest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: SPX6900 up 15.6%, ASI Alliance up 13.8%, Zcash up 12.6%, HEX up 11.9%, and Mantle up 11.7%.
