Original article: hitesh.eth

Translator: Dingdang

Editor: Hao Fangzhou

Produced by: Odaily Planet Daily

This article may make many people uncomfortable. Most people will be struck by pain midway through and quit, because the truth is always uncomfortable. But I'm not here to comfort anyone; I'm here to shatter illusions.

If you're still waiting for altseason, you've already lost.

It has been almost three years since Bitcoin reached the bottom of its last cycle (approximately between $15,000 and $20,000).

Three years is a long time in the crypto market.

During these three years, those who held on to the previous round of investment portfolios are still in deep losses, and many people have been mentally destroyed.

Countless tokens never recovered, the narrative died, the hype died, and liquidity dried up.

Most people's portfolios have become a "graveyard of dreams." Only a few tokens, such as Solana and BNB, have truly delivered impressive performance. While Ethereum has seen some gains, it's not enough to save those who entered the market at the top. DOT and MATIC, considered "coins of faith" in the last cycle, continue to lose money. Gaming tokens have essentially entered a state of clinical death.

Those who believe in the "Metaverse" and "GameFi" narratives can only watch their capital rot bit by bit.

They still "pray" as if faith can save them.

But it won’t.

Two types of people divided by the market tide: the old-era holders and the rise of the new era

Over the past three years, the market has diverged into two distinct paths.

The first category is the holders frozen in time. They have an unfounded belief that the market will eventually rebound and their coins will miraculously return to all-time highs. They don't rotate their assets, stay current, research new market narratives, or learn on-chain skills. They simply cling to their worthless assets, waiting for a miracle. Worse still, many hold their coins on centralized exchanges. When exchanges like WazirX are hacked or freeze withdrawals, they complain on Twitter, yet their money remains untouched. Their strategy is simply "hope." But hope isn't a strategy; it's slow financial suicide in the cryptocurrency world.

The other path belongs to a new generation of investors who have entered the market in the past two to three years. They have no attachment to the old narrative, nor do they care about your 2020 portfolio. They have a single goal: to profit from the market. They entered through two paths—airdrops and meme coin trading. They turned to on-chain activities early on, boldly experimenting. Some started from scratch, accumulating capital from scratch. They were not lucky, but eager. They learned how to get ahead, how to rotate, and how to exit quickly. Although many have lost profits due to a lack of exit strategies, at least they are truly participating in the market, rather than being timid bystanders who dare not leave centralized exchanges.

Over the past three years, we've witnessed wave after wave of narratives: the meme craze, the AI craze, the meme+AI craze, the second meme craze, the second AI craze, the short-lived DeFi craze, the buyback and burn craze, the ongoing privacy coin craze, the ICM craze, the AI agent craze, and even the short-lived anchor coin craze. Market narratives have become more ephemeral, with crazes often lasting only two weeks before fading.

The lazy complain about the market being manipulated, while the smart ones flexibly rotate and survive. This is not a market for "believers" but an arena for survivors.

Market fragmentation: no more “unified copycat season”

Today, the market is highly fragmented, no longer a unified community but instead splintered into countless "trenchments." People are choosing sides: Solana, BNB, Base, Meme, AI, DeFi... Each trench has its own rhythm, insiders, leaders, information flows, and liquidity cycles. Players in these trenches understand where liquidity is flowing. They understand a simple truth: there is no longer a single, universal altcoin season.

Because liquidity has been divided across different narratives, bridges, chains, and cultures. If you are not in the trenches, you will always miss the copycat season and only see the red K-line and endless loss.

Those retail investors sitting on the outside are still waiting for some "macro switch" to be flipped, believing that this will allow their "dead coins" to return to new highs. They log into exchanges daily, staring at candlestick charts like addicts, and cry "enough" every week, only to repeat the same cycle. They are the most stubborn group in the entire industry. They still post prediction charts of Link reaching $1,000 and DOT reaching $200, hoping that liquidity will flow back out of goodwill. They don't realize that this market has no mercy and no memory. It doesn't care who waits the longest, but only rewards those who adapt the fastest.

"Copycat Season" Has Actually Already Happened, It Just Didn't Happen to You

The altcoin season is already happening, you just didn't catch it. It manifested in fragmented forms: in the Base meme coin craze, in Solana's rotation, in the Ponzi scheme of airdrops, in the surge of early AI narratives, in the craze of token burning... These opportunities were fleeting, and yet you're staring at a long-dead candlestick chart from 2021. That was your choice: the market moved forward, while you stayed where you were.

You follow technical analysis (TA) flows that have never really made money, and use 50x leverage to bet on tokens that you don’t even understand. As a result, your position is liquidated, and then you cover your position, then your position is liquidated again, and then you cover your position again.

You call it bad luck? No, it's not a matter of luck, it's a matter of ability. Nothing will change until you acknowledge the truth. You're not "unlucky," you're just refusing to learn.

Many people reject new opportunities because they're obsessed with their own biases. When a new narrative emerges, they cry "scam" without even reading the documentation. When a new narrative emerges, they ask, "When will the airdrop happen?" without even reading the documentation. They scoff at smart people rotating assets, only to regret their actions when they share six-figure returns. You might console yourself with insider trading, but the truth is simpler: you weren't being "played," you were being "scooped up."

Consider Zcash. It's one of the clearest trading opportunities of this cycle. The narrative is strong, the support is strong, and the community is naturally promoting it. Naval publicly discussed Zcash when it was around $80. Whether you like Naval or not, the signal is impossible to ignore. When a respected voice combines a strong narrative with daily promotion from influencers like Mert, it becomes more than just noise; it's a clear momentum play backed by builders.

But most people miss out because they don't research, read, or understand the technical or implementation details before superficially comparing Zcash and Monero. They're too lazy to try and simply dismiss the opportunity. Because it's easier not to research than to admit they're lazy.

Without effort, there's no faith. Those who don't learn don't deserve to reap the rewards. Most people lack the perseverance to persevere. They test the waters with small investments, rotate without judgment, and follow influencers like lost sheep. When a true opportunity arises, they buy high, then hold onto their assets, hoping for a hundredfold return as predicted on someone's tweet. This isn't strategy; it's financial suicide disguised as ambition.

The market always calls out exaggerated targets, but they're meaningless. They use inflated numbers simply to siphon your liquidity. Greed bait is the oldest tactic in the game. If you're not mature enough to develop your own exit plan, you'll eventually lose everything you've earned—all of it.

This is an iron rule. People without discipline will always be destroyed by greed.

Ultimately, if you can't hold on to your gains, you'll eventually lose everything. The market doesn't steal from the weak—the weak willingly give their money. Market makers don't steal your money; they wait for you to collapse. Retail investors once owned Bitcoin; now, institutions have taken over. Where once, retail investors held onto faith, now only memes, fantasies, and screenshots of profits that have long since vanished are left.

This game isn't about who's smartest, but who can evolve. If you don't learn, you're dying; if you don't rotate, you're rotting; if you don't master on-chain skills, you're already eliminated. You don't need special talent or insider access, but you do need to work hard. You need to read, follow the narrative, learn to exit, control your emotions, and act decisively—without hesitation, begging, or waiting for permission.

Crypto isn't hard; people make it complicated. They chase dopamine over discipline, crave enthusiasm over process, seek luck over learning, and expect rewards over research. They're so eager for shortcuts that they never develop skills. This is why most people remain broke in a market where wealth is created every cycle.

Successful individuals aren't chosen by fate, nor are they the lucky ones. They don't have innate advantages. They simply persevere in learning while others simply scroll through their feeds. They build systems while others chase the noise. They act early while others debate. They exit cleanly while others hope for another wave of gains. They navigate every cycle because they adapt to it.

If you're still waiting for "altcoin season," you've already lost. The game has already moved on. You either evolve or get left behind. No one is coming to save you. No "new bull run" will magically fix your bad habits. Today, there's only one rule left in this market: learn, or get left behind.