Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Last Friday's dismal US non-farm payroll data showed only 22,000 new jobs, far below expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate climbed to a four-year high of 4.3%, significantly fueling expectations of an interest rate cut. Investors are generally betting on three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Standard Chartered Bank even revised its forecast after the data was released, arguing that the rapid slowdown in the labor market opens the door to larger rate cuts, predicting a 50 basis point cut in September. Market attention is focused on Tuesday's release of the annual benchmark revision to the non-farm payroll data. Institutions such as Nomura Securities and Goldman Sachs have warned that due to statistical model distortions and other factors, the previous employment data may be significantly overestimated, potentially leading to a one-time downward revision of 600,000 to 900,000 jobs. This has heightened market concern about whether a repeat of last year's significant downward revision to the data, which prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates unexpectedly, will occur.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, described the current situation as a "jobs recession," noting that excluding the healthcare and hospitality sectors, US job growth this year would be zero, or even net job losses, a phenomenon typically associated with recessions. However, US Treasury Secretary Bensont dismissed this view, blaming the weak job market on the Federal Reserve's failure to cut interest rates sooner and predicting a "substantial acceleration" in the fourth quarter driven by the Trump administration's economic policies. Against this backdrop, Tony Pasquariello, head of Goldman Sachs' hedge fund business, reiterated his core macroeconomic stance: he remains bearish on the US dollar while bullish on "store-of-value" assets such as US stocks and gold.

Bitcoin prices continue to hover around $111,000, with market opinions diverging on short-term trends. Trader Michaël van de Poppe believes a break above $112,000 could usher in a new bull market, while traders Cipher X and Crypto Tony warn that a failure to hold above $113,000 could lead to a correction to $100,000. From a technical analysis perspective, TurboBullCapital analyst notes that Bitcoin is range-bound, with resistance at the 50-day moving average (around $115,000) and key support at $107,000. A break below this level could lead to a drop to the 200-day moving average near $101,000. Analyst ZYN, using Fibonacci retracement analysis, identifies $100,000 as the critical 0.382 retracement level, predicting a worst-case scenario of a 10% correction, followed by a potential 50% rally, targeting above $150,000. Meanwhile, Breakout founder Mayne sees the current pullback as a test of support at the previous all-time high, believing that holding $109,000 is crucial. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades believes the market remains uncertain, predicting that prices may find support between $103,000 and $105,000 after breaking through the monthly low. Crypto analyst CrypNuevo favors a contrarian approach, noting that the current bearish market sentiment presents an opportune opportunity for a position. Based on the liquidation heat map, he is focusing on the $115,000 and $119,500 liquidation points above, and the $106,700 liquidation point below.

Ethereum's recent volatility has gradually subsided, with prices confined within the $4,200-$4,400 range. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades believes this often signals a significant upcoming price movement. He notes that while the $4,200 support level has held, weakening rebound momentum could lead to its eventual collapse. A pullback to the $3,900 range would present a good opportunity for a swing buy. However, he is not inclined to enter long positions at this stage unless there is a strong short-term breakout above $4,500 or a full price correction. Analyst Axel Bitblaze maintains a bullish stance, believing that Ethereum is accumulating liquidity within a tightening triangle pattern. If market sentiment stabilizes, the path to an upward breakout is relatively clear, with a short-term target of $4,400. Sustained momentum could lead to further gains to $4,800.

The Solana ecosystem will celebrate a major event on Tuesday: its first digital asset treasury (DAT), SOL Strategies, will officially launch on Nasdaq . According to analysis by Unipcs, the largest holder of USELESS, this move could drive a strong rally for Solana and its ecosystem, based on the historical performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum following the launch of similar products. Despite positive independent catalysts, crypto analyst CrypNuevo cautions that altcoin trends remain closely tied to overall market sentiment. He predicts that if the Bitcoin market weakens, the SOL price could fall back to $182.

2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, September 8)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $111,010 (+18.57% YTD), daily spot volume $24.671 billion

• Ethereum: $4,303 (+28.74% YTD), with daily spot trading volume of $16.073 billion

• Fear of corruption index : 50 (neutral)

• Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.165 Gwei

• Market share : BTC 57.16%, ETH 13.5%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, RED, WLFI, ETH, DOGE

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 50.1%/49.9%

• Sector gains and losses: AI rose 6.98%, Meme rose 4.82%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 103,381 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$157 million, including BTC liquidation of US$9.4879 million, ETH liquidation of US$21.62 million, and SOMI liquidation of US$18.07 million.

• BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($112,257.62), lower channel line ($110,034.70)

• ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($4395.86), lower line ($4308.81)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of September 5)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$160 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$447 million, 5 consecutive days of net outflows

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha to List Black Mirror (MIRROR) on September 8th

• OKX will delist WBTC, JST, BTT, ERN, GLMR, and MOVR from spot trading on September 8th

• SOL Strategies was approved to list on the Nasdaq on September 9 under the ticker symbol STKE.

• Binance Alpha and Futures to List Avantis (AVNT) on September 9th

• Preliminary value of the benchmark change in non-farm employment in the United States in 2025 (10,000 people): previous value -59.8 (September 9, 22:00)

• Sonic (S) will unlock approximately 150 million tokens at 8:00 am on September 9, accounting for 5.02% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately US$45.4 million.

• Movement (MOVE) will unlock approximately 50 million tokens at 8:00 PM on September 9th, representing 1.89% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $5.9 million.

The biggest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: Worldcoin up 24%, HEX up 14.5%, SPX6900 up 11.2%, Dogecoin up 6.8%, and Bonk up 6.4%.

5. Hot News

• This Week's Preview | Linea to Hold TGE on September 10th; CHEEL, APT, and S will each unlock over $40 million worth of tokens

• This week's macroeconomic outlook: interest rate cuts are no longer a problem, and CPI data may stimulate a 50 basis point drop

• Data: CHEEL, APT, S and other tokens will usher in large-scale unlocking, of which CHEEL unlocking value is about 56 million US dollars

• Amber Group withdraws another 4.68 million WLD from Binance three months later

• Linea: Liquidity Incentive Program Rewards to Increase to 160 Million LINEA

• Galaxy Digital deposits 175,000 SOL tokens worth $35.65 million to Coinbase

• After six years of dormancy, a whale deposited $90.74 million in ETH to BitFinex, with a total profit of approximately $240 million.

• WLFI: 272 wallets are blacklisted and frozen to prevent user losses

• Ark Invest increases stake in Ethereum treasury company BMNR by 388,045 shares