Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
1. Market Observation
With the US reaching trade agreements with several Southeast Asian countries and substantial progress made during the fifth round of face-to-face consultations between the US and Chinese trade teams held in Kuala Lumpur on October 25-26, market risk appetite has rebounded significantly. The two sides reached a basic consensus on key issues such as the Section 301 measures on maritime logistics, tariff suspensions, and agricultural trade. The US side also stated that it was "no longer considering" imposing 100% tariffs on China , significantly boosting market sentiment. This led to a strong rebound in Asian stock markets, with the Nikkei 225 index breaking through 50,000 points for the first time, and South Korea's Kospi Composite Index also surpassing 4,000 points for the first time . However, North American trade relations have experienced renewed tensions, with Trump announcing an additional 10% tariff on Canada in response to a critical Ontario advertisement. This move has further strained the world's largest bilateral trade relationship. The US Supreme Court will debate the legality of the president's tariff authority on November 5, further increasing policy uncertainty.
The gold market experienced significant volatility last week. After reaching a record high near $4,380 per ounce, it suffered its largest single-day drop since 2013, but retail investors remained enthusiastic about buying on the dip. Institutions such as UBS and JPMorgan Chase generally believe that despite the short-term pullback, the long-term bull market foundation for gold remains solid, given the global central bank gold buying spree, sovereign debt concerns, and potential geopolitical risks. UBS maintained its year-end target of $4,200, predicting a potential rise to $4,700 if risks intensify. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's policy direction has become a focus this week, with the market predicting a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at its October 29th meeting.
Driven by positive macroeconomic factors, Bitcoin market sentiment has rebounded, with the price now exceeding $115,500 . Analyst Murphy noted that as of October 26th, Bitcoin prices had returned above the short-term holder's average cost per share (STH-RP) of $113,200, strongly refuting the view that the bull market has ended and proving that the market is entering a new macro-driven cycle. He believes that the current price fluctuations around the STH-RP reflect market divergence, and the height of subsequent rebounds will determine the stage of market sentiment. Traders are closely monitoring key price levels. ElonTrades believes that if the Fed's rate cut meets expectations and the price breaks through $116,000, it could reach $120,000. Man of Bitcoin emphasizes $111,200 as key support, and as long as the price remains above this level, the current upward outlook remains valid. Astronomer plans to close out some long positions around $118,000, while remaining wary of a potential pullback caused by a CME gap. In the long run, analyst Ash Crypto is extremely optimistic. He predicts that in the next 4-6 months, the market will usher in a parabolic rise due to multiple favorable factors such as the explosion of M2 money supply, the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing, multiple interest rate cuts, and the approval of 155 altcoin ETFs.
Ethereum also exhibited strong technical and on-chain signals. Analyst Scient noted that historically, the October "October Moon" cycle often marks a macro bottom or a breakout point for Ethereum's localized downtrend, recommending buying on dips in October and November. Regarding on-chain activity, the movements of a "smart money" address that aggressively went long after the October 11th flash crash have drawn significant attention. The address is planning to gradually take profits on its 15,689.44 ETH long position between $4,190 and $4,914.9, and is preparing to short if the price breaks through $4,914.9 (near its all-time high). Furthermore, a large transfer record has also captured market attention: HEX and PulseChain founder Richard Heart transferred a total of 30,066 ETH (approximately $125 million) to a new wallet, the majority of which was transferred via the privacy protocol TornadoCash, sparking market speculation regarding his motives.
Meanwhile, privacy protocols and x402-related tokens continued to rise . Zcash (ZEC), a privacy-related project, performed particularly well, with BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes even proposing a target price of $10,000. Its market capitalization has surpassed $5 billion. PIVX surged 80% in 24 hours, while DASH and ZEN saw gains of 23% and 22%, respectively. Another hot topic is x402, an AI payment protocol based on the HTTP 402 status code. Since Coinbase launched the open-source protocol on May 7th and Google released its AP2 protocol on September 16th , the ecosystem has continued to heat up. The enthusiasm was ignited by the October 22nd issuance of PING, the Base ecosystem's meme coin . The project's market capitalization once exceeded $80 million, but has now fallen to around $30 million. Since October 22nd, PAYAI, an AI payment concept project on the Solana blockchain, has soared nearly 15-fold, from $4 million to $60 million. The total market capitalization of tokens in the x402 ecosystem has also skyrocketed 366% in 24 hours, exceeding $800 million.
2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, October 27)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, CoinMarketCap, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $115,600 (+23.55% YTD), daily spot trading volume $52.16 billion
Ethereum: $4,238 (+27.3% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $32.75 billion
Fear of corruption index: 42 (neutral)
Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.1 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.9%, ETH 13.1%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ETH, XRP, BTC, F, VIRTUAL
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 51.11%/48.89%
Sector gains and losses: The market generally rose, with the DeFi sector up 5.92% and the L2 sector up 5.4%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 111,376 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$451 million, including US$175 million in BTC, US$124 million in ETH, and US$31.13 million in SOL.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($112,516.03), lower channel line ($110,287.99)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($4057.49), lower line ($3977.14)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF flows (as of October 24)
Bitcoin ETF: +$90.605 million, with no net outflow from any of the twelve ETFs
Ethereum ETF: -$93.5957 million, net outflow for three consecutive days
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Alpha to Launch XNAP, COMMON, and 42 Airdrops on October 27th
Hong Kong's first Solana spot ETF will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 27
MegaETH will launch the public sale of MEGA tokens on October 27, with an initial FDV of $1 million.
Grass (GRASS) will unlock approximately 181 million tokens at 9:30 PM on October 28, accounting for 72.4% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately $79.3 million.
Jupiter (JUP) will unlock approximately 53.47 million tokens at 10:00 PM on October 28, representing 1.72% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $23 million.
Sign (SIGN) will unlock approximately 290 million tokens at 6 pm on October 28, accounting for 21.48% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately US$12.1 million.
The biggest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: Virtuals Protocol up 26.1%, Zcash up 22.8%, Dash up 21.4%, Pi Network up 21.3%, and Ethena up 13.1%.
