Trading time: Ethereum focuses on 4700 to effectively break through, Bitcoin's daily line fights for 112,000 and strives to maintain 108,800

1. Market Observation

Trump's announcement yesterday of the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, and his assertion that he would soon command a majority on the board supporting significant interest rate cuts, has sparked widespread legal and political controversy. Cook's lawyers have stated that they will challenge this "illegal conduct" through litigation. The Federal Reserve has also stated that it will abide by the court's decision, emphasizing that the long-term tenure of governors and protection from arbitrary removal are key cornerstones of monetary policy independence. Meanwhile, the US regulatory landscape is also shifting, with CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson announcing her upcoming departure, leaving the commission with only one leader. Investors are currently awaiting Nvidia's earnings report on August 28th.

Most analysts remain cautious about Bitcoin. Among those with a long-term bearish outlook, asset management firm Diaman Partners, based on cyclical analysis, predicts the bottom of this cycle could occur in 2026, between $60,000 and $80,000. Economist Peter Schiff is even more pessimistic, noting that Bitcoin has fallen 13% from its peak to below $109,000, and predicting a potential low of around $75,000. Regarding near-term support, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. believes that if the price falls below the strong support range of $100,000 to $107,000 (the intersection of the short-term holder's actual price and the 200-day simple moving average), the market may find deeper support at $92,000 to $93,000. Currently, the market's focus is on key support and resistance areas. Analyst Murphy emphasizes that $108,800, the short-term holder's cost basis (STH-RP), represents a sentimental "bull-bear dividing line." A significant daily close below this level could trigger market panic and require a prolonged recovery. To confirm an upward trend, several analysts, such as AlphaBTC and Altcoin Sherpa, have pointed out that the price must close above $112,000 on either the four-hour or daily charts, otherwise it could fall back to around $105,000. However, Breakout founder Mayne believes Bitcoin may rebound and consolidate in the $110,000-$120,000 range, while CrypNuevo points to the CME gap near $117,000 as a potential upside target.

Analysts are generally optimistic about Ethereum, especially following its strong performance relative to Bitcoin. Despite some short-term profit-taking pressure, analysts generally believe the overall bullish trend remains intact. Regarding price support, analyst Amr Taha suggests that if the price fails to hold above $4,700, it could fluctuate between $4,350 and $4,700, or even fall back to $4,000. However, Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua believes that the current pullback to around $4,100 and $4,300 could be an optimal buying opportunity. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee also echoed the views of his analyst Mark Newton, predicting that Ethereum will bottom out around $4,300. Looking ahead, a break above this key level would open up new upside potential. Amr Taha believes that a successful break above $4,700 would pave the way towards $5,000. Mark Newton's prediction is more aggressive, predicting a rebound from the bottoming out to new highs, with a target price between $5,100 and $5,450. Tom Lee himself is the most optimistic. He predicts that Ethereum will rise to $5,500 in the next few weeks and reach $10,000 to $12,000 by the end of the year. His confidence comes from the fact that Ethereum is increasingly becoming the blockchain platform of choice for Wall Street institutions.

Amidst broader market dynamics, the price of Hyperliquid's XPL token surged 200% in five minutes before rapidly collapsing, resulting in $17.1 million in liquidated XPL positions over the past 24 hours, with two major whale addresses accumulating $27.5 million in profits. Furthermore, Trump Media & Technology Group announced a strategic partnership with Crypto.com, planning to adopt the CRO token as a utility token for its social platform's rewards system and establish a publicly listed CRO reserve company through a SPAC with an expected fund size of $6.42 billion. This contributed to a nearly 40% surge in CRO's value. Meanwhile, hedge fund Numerai announced it had secured a $500 million investment commitment from JPMorgan Chase's asset management arm, sending the price of its native NMR token soaring by over 120%.

2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, August 27)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

Bitcoin: $111,650 (+19.16% YTD), daily spot trading volume $39.888 billion
Ethereum: $4,633.55 (+38.54% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $40.139 billion
Fear of corruption index: 52 (neutral)
Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.22 Gwei
Market share: BTC 57.2%, ETH 14.4%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ETH, XRP, BTC, SOL, CRO
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.34%/50.66%
Sector gains and losses: Meme sector rose 4.87%, AI sector rose 4.23%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 83,997 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$277 million, including BTC liquidation of US$67.3982 million, ETH liquidation of US$97.20 million, and SOL liquidation of US$19.4186 million.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($115,277.81), lower channel line ($112,995.08)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($4514.58), lower channel line ($4425.18)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of August 26)

Bitcoin ETF: +$88.2049 million
Ethereum ETF: +$455 million, 4 consecutive days of net inflows

4. Today's Outlook

Binance Alpha and Binance Futures will list Bitlayer (BTR) on August 27th , with an airdrop starting today and lasting 30 days.
Binance Alpha and Binance Futures will list Mitosis (MITO) on August 28th
Nvidia announced its second-quarter 2026 fiscal year results after the US stock market closed. (August 28)
Jupiter (JUP) will unlock approximately 53.47 million tokens at 10:00 PM on August 28, representing 1.78% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $27.1 million.
Sophon (SOPH) will unlock approximately 267 million tokens at 9:00 PM on August 28, representing 12.94% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $8.9 million.

The biggest gainers in the top 100 by market capitalization today: Cronos up 39.2%, Hyperliquid up 11.8%, Story up 11.8%, Pump.fun up 10.7%, and Solana up 8.3%.