Trading Moment: BTC encountered resistance at 78,000; it needs to hold above 74,000 in hopes of breaking through.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

On April 16, Eastern Time, a 10-day temporary ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and Lebanon officially took effect . Meanwhile, Trump stated that the next round of talks between the US and Iran could be held this weekend , and claimed that the US had received a "very substantial" statement ensuring that Iran would not possess nuclear weapons for the next 20 years. Trump also revealed that Iran had agreed to almost all of its demands, including abandoning its nuclear weapons program and opening the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran has not yet responded.

However, leaders of Gulf Arab states and Europe generally believe that a US-Iran peace agreement could take about six months. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose for the 12th consecutive day, hitting a new record high of 24,102.70 points, a gain of 0.36%, tying its longest winning streak since 2009. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48,578.72 points (+0.24%), and the S&P 500 closed at 7,041.28 points (+0.26%), recording its strongest 10-day gain since April 2020 (+9.8%), setting new record highs for the second consecutive day.

The dollar 's "safe-haven throne" is facing a challenge; the Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen 1.4% since the ceasefire agreement on April 7. Wall Street giants such as Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo are bearish on the dollar , with Deutsche Bank even predicting the euro will break through 1.20 against the dollar. Kathleen Brooks, head of research at XTB, points out that Trump's threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and replace him with his ally Kevin Warsh, an intervention in the Fed's independence, is eroding market confidence in the dollar.

Furthermore, data from the Federal Reserve's bank reserves showed escalating liquidity pressures. Although the weekly average balance rose to $3.13 trillion, up from $3.116 trillion the previous week, the daily balance on April 15 fell below $3 trillion to $2.98 trillion, a new low since February 18 ($2.96 trillion).

Faced with the complex interplay between inflation and interest rates, Federal Reserve official Milan called for three to four rate cuts this year, while Williams believes the current policy is "well-positioned." Former US Treasury Secretary Paulson issued a stern warning, urging immediate preparation of contingency plans for a "broken window" scenario, stating that if demand for US Treasury bonds dries up and hits a "debt wall," the consequences would be extremely dire.

AI and the Stock Market

Retail investors appear to be dumping their former darling Nvidia (which has only risen 13.73% this month) and flowing into the server CPU sector. AMD and Intel have become the biggest winners in this revaluation, with both stocks surging. AMD jumped 7.8% to $278.26 in a single day, marking its longest winning streak in over two decades with 12 consecutive days of gains, and a cumulative increase of 41% this month. Intel also surged 5.48%, hitting a new all-time high. AMD CEO Lisa Su announced that its CPUs are completely sold out and expects its data center business to grow at an annual rate of over 60% in the next three to five years. TSMC 's statement at its Q1 earnings call that "CPUs are becoming increasingly important in AI data centers" further fueled market enthusiasm.

Besides TSMC, streaming giant Netflix also released its Q1 financial report. Although a one-time payment of $2.85 billion from ending its bid to acquire Warner boosted Q1 EPS by 86%, weak guidance for Q2 and news of co-founder Reed Hastings' departure caused its stock price to plummet nearly 10% in after-hours trading.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin's daily closing price broke through $75,000 for the first time in 73 days. Meanwhile, Deribit data shows that approximately $1.63 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire at 16:00 Beijing time on April 17th, with a maximum price threshold of $71,000. Market opinions on future price movements are divided. Some believe the current rise is mainly driven by short covering, lacking real capital support, and that significant overhead resistance could lead to a price pullback. On-chain data shows that profit-taking sentiment is rising recently, and some institutional buying has not fully followed. However, others believe Bitcoin is experiencing a significant technical breakout, with whales buying heavily, building momentum for a push towards $100,000. The market generally considers $74,000 a key support level; if this level holds, the price could rise further, challenging $80,000 or even higher. Currently, market attention is focused on the true market average at $78,140 and the 100-day SMA resistance line.

Bearish view

The core logic of the bearish camp is that Bitcoin has failed to break through key resistance levels multiple times, macro liquidity has not improved substantially, and the current rise relies too much on sentiment and short covering, making the structure extremely fragile.

KillaXBT: Currently, it's all being propped up by traditional finance, and the 84K gap won't be filled for several months. The top is closer than we thought.
Murphy: The cost line for retail investors who recently bought Bitcoin is around $75,400, which forms an impenetrable "wall of selling pressure to break even"; in the past three bull and bear cycles, the second attempt to break through this cost line has failed without exception.
Minga: From a time cycle perspective, April 17th to 21st is the window for a temporary peak; once the price touches the 78.8k-79.4k area, I will not hesitate to enter a short position.
Glassnode: On-chain data shows that profit-taking sentiment is surging, with the 30-day EMA of realized profit/loss ratio reaching as high as 1.16; and exchange buying is extremely polarized, with Binance buying but Coinbase remaining silent, indicating that institutions have not fully entered the market. To break through $78,000 in the future, stronger capital inflows and broader institutional participation are needed.
Crypto Chase: The market is incredibly boring right now. The only reason for the price increase is micro-strategy buying. Once the buying stops, the price will stagnate.

bullish view

The bullish camp believes that the macro technical pattern is about to usher in an ultimate breakthrough, with whales engaging in an epic frenzy of buying. Once the key resistance is broken, the macro correction will come to an end.

Crypto Patel: $76,000 is a critical level that will determine life or death; as long as the major candlestick charts can close firmly above this level, it will directly open up an upward channel to $84,000 to $96,000.
Ali Charts: Bitcoin is attempting its third test of the 100-day moving average in six months; once it successfully breaks through, the macro correction will be over, and the price will surge to $80,000 without any resistance.
CJ: In the short term, it would be best to first pull back to 69k-70k to shake out weak hands and then go long; as long as the closing price this month can be higher than the opening price in February, the macro trend will be bullish across the board, with the ultimate target pointing to $100,000 to $108,000.
Delphi Digital: The core indicator of market patience (CPS) has surged to 0.68, far exceeding the durability threshold of 0.57; this indicates that steadfast long-term investors have completely overwhelmed speculators, and the market structure has undergone a qualitative change.
McKenna: Compared to the 50-week moving average of $96,800, Bitcoin is still in a state of severe “deep undervaluation”; as long as it holds $74,000, it will definitely reach the mid-to-high level of $80,000 in the coming weeks.
Nic Puckrin: As long as the Middle East ceasefire agreement holds and oil prices fall to ease inflation anxieties, the improved macroeconomic environment will easily push Bitcoin to $90,000.

Market Dynamics

The Fear & Greed Index has remained above 20 for four consecutive days , leading to a small rebound in altcoins. Even inscription-based coins like ORDI and SATS are among the top gainers. ORDI surged from $2.183 to a high of $10.7 this week, nearly quadrupling, before settling back to around $8. SATS also reached its highest level since November 2025, rising nearly 150% this week. With the overall market recovery, Upbit's listing activity has also rebounded. SOON, listed today, saw a short-term surge of over 100%, and ZAMA, listed a few days ago, also experienced a short-term spike of 65% after its listing announcement.

Some tokens experienced wild price swings due to excessive market manipulation. For example, 55% of the circulating supply of AKE tokens (worth $8.67 million) was transferred to Binance Alpha by four wallets within four days. After trading volume surged from $2 million to $34 million, the price briefly rose to $0.00158, but was then quickly dumped by market manipulators, causing a 65% flash crash. On the other hand, SIREN saw its market manipulators reclaim over 93% of the tokens after the earlier dump, resulting in a nearly 200% increase in 24 hours.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT, April 17)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: +$26.0511 million, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows.
Ethereum ETF: +$18.0209 million, marking the 6th consecutive day of net inflows.
SOL ETF: +$15.5003 million
XRP ETF: +$11.8656 million
Fear of Greed Index: 21 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: SOON, XRP, BTC, BIO, ETH
Sector Performance: Cryptocurrency sectors generally rose, with AI leading the gains at over 12%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 146,215 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $375 million, including $104 million in BTC liquidations, $94.58 million in ETH liquidations, and $20.59 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

Binance will remove spot trading pairs such as ARB/EUR and BANANA/FDUSD on April 17.
Polaris: The platform will shut down on April 17, 2026. Users must withdraw their remaining assets in a timely manner.
deBridge (DBR) will unlock approximately 618 million tokens, worth about $9.2 million, on April 17.
YZY (YZY) will unlock approximately 20.83 million tokens, worth approximately $6.3 million, on April 18.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Siren up 136%, MemeCore up 34.6%, RaveDAO up 26.7%, Arbitrum up 9.8%, and JUST up 8.4%.