Recently, everyone is talking about the tariff war started by Trump. On the surface, it is to bring manufacturing back to the United States and balance trade, but it is not that simple. It is not a decision made by Trump on a whim, but it has affected the deep changes in the global economy, politics, and geopolitics. Dalio, the boss of Bridgewater Fund, once said that behind this tariff war lies a major reshuffle of the world pattern. Today, let's break it down and talk about what it has brought.
1. The collapse of the monetary order: How long can the US dollar last?
Let's talk about the first big change: the shaking of the global monetary order. This has to start from after World War II, when the US dollar was pegged to gold, and later tied to oil, becoming the "petrodollar", whose status no one can shake. The United States lives a comfortable life relying on this system. Print some money, and the cheap goods produced by countries around the world are continuously delivered to Americans. But what about other countries? All they get in return for a long time is a pile of green paper. What to do if they have no money? The United States just prints and borrows. Now the United States owes 36 trillion US dollars in debt, making it the world's largest debtor country. What does this 36 trillion mean? There are 300 million people in the United States. Converted into RMB, each person has an average debt of 700,000 to 800,000. How can they pay it back?
Of this debt, 9 trillion will mature in 2025. What if it can't pay it back? The United States will have to default if it can't borrow new debts. If it defaults, its credit will collapse, and the dollar system will collapse. This is a major driving force behind Trump's tariff war, called "a desperate fight." He launched a tariff war, to put it bluntly, to "rob and plunder" and get more money back from other countries. But in this way, the status of the dollar will be unstable, and the global monetary order will be shaken. If one order collapses, how many years will it take to build a new one? Some people say that this is like passing the flower, and sooner or later you have to pay it back. But who will take over when the flower is passed to the end? Japan and our country, these big creditor countries, have bought so many U.S. Treasury bonds, and the pressure is not small. So this is not a short-term thing, but a long-term change, and we have to keep an eye on it in the next few years.
2. Chaos in the domestic political order: cooperation is gone, division is coming
Let's talk about the second change. The domestic political order of the United States and many other countries has been messed up. After Trump's return, from 2016 to now, the entire Western right-wing thought has risen again. What is right-wing? It's nationalism. The United States shouts "America First", Europe shouts "France First" and "Germany First", anti-immigration, anti-globalization, and some are even anti-EU. They think that their national interests are the most important. They don't believe in win-win or multi-win! They think that if you make money, I lose money, and if I make money, you lose money. It's a zero-sum game.
This trend is particularly evident in the United States. In the past, the Republicans and Democrats could sit down and talk, compromise, and cooperate. But now? They are completely at odds. The United States is aggressive to the outside world, and it is also the same at home. When Congress meets, the Democrats oppose whatever the Republicans say, and the Republicans do the same. There is no compromise, and the political order has collapsed. Look at it now. The two parties in the United States are fighting like enemies, and they don't even have a basic consensus. This is not just a problem in the United States. Europe is similar, but it's a little slower. For example, some right-wing parties in Germany and France have also begun to rise, and anti-EU voices are getting louder and louder.
Trump is not fighting alone. The entire right-wing and conservative forces are rising. The original political order, such as the rule of law and democracy that the United States has always boasted about, has been suppressed. Some people say that this is a "mutation" of Western politics. In the past, it was about rules and cooperation, but now it all depends on who has the loudest voice and the strongest fist. So this second change is also global and has far-reaching impact.
3. Geopolitical reshuffle: The bigger the fist, the more power
The third change is the geopolitical reshuffle. After World War II, many leaders of various countries had experienced war and knew how miserable war was, so there was the reconciliation between France and Germany and the establishment of the European Union. But now, those people with a historical perspective have gone, and some of the successors are young people and businessmen who treat international politics as a joke and do not take the rules seriously. What is the United Nations? Stand aside. Trump's logic is very simple, and Dalio of Bridgewater Fund also said that "strength is the rule". In our popular words, "the one with the bigger fist has the final say."
Look at what he did to the EU and Ukraine. The US used to support Ukraine in the war, but what about now? They want to cut off half of Ukraine's mineral rights. Even Putin is not so cruel. They want to take Greenland, and Canada wants to become the 51st state of the United States. The US used to respect international rules, but now it ignores the United Nations and the World Trade Organization. This is not just a small fight, but a complete change of geopolitics.
This change has a huge impact on the world. For example, the Ukraine incident has stunned Europe, and Canada's ideas have made North America a mess. In the past, the international order had some rules, but now it is all about strength. This cannot be resolved in the short term, because the rules are gone and it will take time to rebuild them.
The next decade: globalization is hindered and nationalism rises
These three changes - the collapse of the monetary order, the chaos of domestic politics, and the reshuffle of geopolitics - are not accidental, but a major trend in the world. Trump will serve for four years, and may serve for another four years. It will take time for adjustments. In the next decade, globalization will be hindered and nationalism will rise. Voices such as "America First" and "France First" will become louder and louder.
Why do I say that? Because this trend is not measured in days, months, or years, but in decades. According to the political cycle of the United States, the storms that Trump has stirred up in the past four years will continue to ferment. The reconstruction of the monetary order, the restoration of political compromise, and the reshaping of geopolitical rules, which one is not a big project? So in the next decade, we must be prepared to face a different world.
Some people may ask, what impact does this have on ordinary people like us? Actually, there are many. For example, globalization is hindered, and imported goods may become more expensive and exports may become difficult; the dollar is unstable, and the exchange rate may fluctuate, so we have to be careful about what we buy with our money; the international situation is chaotic, and traveling and working abroad may not be as convenient as before. Of course, it's not all bad. The rise of nationalism may force us to become stronger and more independent.
Ending: The world has changed, what should we do?
In general, Trump's tariff war is a trade dispute on the surface, but behind it is a major change in the world pattern. The collapse of the monetary order, the tearing of the political order, and the reshuffle of geopolitics, the golden age of globalization has come to an end. Whether you like it or not, the world has changed.
So what should we do? What ordinary people can do is to pay more attention and learn more, and not be blinded by the superficial excitement. The next ten years may be a decade of turmoil, but also a decade of opportunities. We must learn to stand firm in the wind brought about by Trump. What do you think? How will this thing develop? Welcome to leave a message to talk about your thoughts!
