Written by: Luke, Mars Finance

On March 31, 2025, Bitcoin was teetering on the edge of $83,000, down about 24% from its peak of $109,000 more than two months ago. The market is like a giant seesaw, with the whisper of the abyss on one end and the temptation of the starry sky on the other.

Today, we focus on two heavyweight wise men in the crypto world: Quinn Thompson, the helmsman of Lekker Capital, predicts that Bitcoin will slowly bleed to $50,000-59,000; Arthur Hayes, the godfather of Maelstrom, bets that it will ride on the QE wind to rush to $250,000 - this is his annual goal reiterated in his latest article, although he also joked about the ultimate vision of a million dollars. The logic of the two is like black and white pieces on a chessboard, diametrically opposed but fascinating.

Quinn Thompson: Wall Street's "cold-blooded prophet"

Quinn Thompson is the founder of Lekker Capital, a "veteran" who has transformed from traditional finance to the crypto field. He once managed billions of funds on Wall Street and is known for his precise macro insights. In 2024, when Bitcoin was still at a high level, his X post had already predicted the market's decline and was regarded as the "last words of the prophet." Thompson's style is calm and sharp, like a doctor holding a scalpel, who is good at dissecting the veins of the economy. His predictions often carry a hint of cold fatalism, as if he has already seen through the ups and downs of the market.

Thompson's prediction is like a slow-paced tragedy: Bitcoin will not collapse, but will gradually decline like a patient with a chronic disease, eventually falling to $50,000-59,000. "This is not a lightning fall, but a maddening chronic torture," he said in an interview with CoinDesk. "Investors will ask again and again, 'Is it the end?', but can only suffer in the fog." His pessimism is based on the "four major headwinds" of the Trump administration's policies, and the logic is clear and pressing:

A “cliff-like contraction” in government spending

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, plans to cut spending by $1 trillion by the end of May, with a long-term goal of cutting $7 trillion. Thompson pointed out that government spending has been the mainstay of the economy and employment in recent years. "This money flows into people's pockets and supports vacations and supermarket consumption. Now that this pillar is being taken away, how can the economy not be shaken?" He sneered, "Don't care whether you like the Ministry of Education or not, those dollars are the blood of real money."

The “iron-fisted contraction” of the labor market

Trump's tough policy on illegal immigration will squeeze the labor supply. In the past, immigration has depressed wages and boosted growth; now that border blockades and deportations are increasing, companies will face pressure to raise wages, and some may even go bankrupt. "This is not a charity dinner, it's a survival game," Thompson said with a hint of sarcasm in his tone, "With less labor, who will do the work?"

The tariff mystery

Trump's tariff policy is like an unfinished suspense drama, increasing tariffs today and canceling them tomorrow. Thompson believes that this uncertainty itself is poison, "Businesses are like being suspended in mid-air, not daring to invest or hire, and economic vitality is being suffocated." He described this as a perfect recipe for "chronic asphyxiation."

The Fed’s “cold-eyed” approach

Despite a 100 basis point rate cut to 4.25%-4.5% by the end of 2024, Bitcoin failed to break through 110,000, indicating that the easing is limited. Thompson expects only sporadic rate cuts of 25-75 basis points in 2025, concentrated in the second half of the year. "The Fed is like a miser, staring at inflation and refusing to let go." He teased the White House: "Bessent's 'course correction' is to burst asset bubbles, and Bitcoin will be the first to bear the brunt."

Thompson likened this to a "controlled burn": the government is trying to clean up the economic "dead branches", but if it gets out of control, it may burn out a ruin. He warned that this "chronic bleeding" may continue until early 2026, until political pressure forces Trump to change direction. As a risky asset, Bitcoin cannot escape the fate of this slow cut.

Arthur Hayes: The Cryptocurrency Alchemist

Arthur Hayes is a legendary figure in the crypto world. He founded BitMEX and turned it into a dominant player in derivatives trading. After leaving BitMEX, he founded Maelstrom and transformed himself into a master of macro strategy, known for his bold predictions and spicy writing. His articles are like black comedies, with profound insights and mockery of power. Hayes is not only a trader, but also a "currency alchemist" who is good at extracting gold from the ashes of policies. Although his million-dollar vision is shocking, his latest article focuses on the realistic goal of $250,000 this year, which shows his pragmatic side.

Hayes' prediction is like a science fiction epic: Bitcoin will ride on the momentum of quantitative easing (QE) and soar from a low of $76,500 last month to $250,000. In his latest article, he wrote: "I still believe that Bitcoin can reach $250,000 by the end of the year, because Bessent's "BBC" has put Powell in place, and the Federal Reserve will flood the market with a flood of dollars." His optimism is based on three pillars, and the logic is like alchemy, layer by layer:

Trump's "debt mania"

Hayes believes that Trump's goal is to become the "greatest president in history" and he will never follow Herbert Hoover's old path of austerity, but will instead follow FDR's way of printing money. In "KISS", he asked, "Does Trump want to be the sinner of the economic collapse, or the hero who prints money to save the world?" The answer is obvious: debt financing is his instinct. DOGE's reduction may seem like austerity, but it is actually a "conspiracy" to force the Fed to open the floodgates. "He is a real estate showman, and borrowing cheap money is his specialty," Hayes said with a sly smile, "The reduction is just foreplay, and printing money is the climax."

The Fed’s “forced easing”

Hayes joked that Powell was suppressed by Bessent's "BBC" (Big Bessent Cock) and was sitting on the "Cuck Chair" without any chance to fight back. The FOMC meeting on March 19 was a turning point: Powell slowed down QT, reducing his holdings of Treasury bonds from $25 billion to $5 billion per month, releasing $240 billion in liquidity on an annualized basis. More importantly, he hinted that he might buy Treasury bonds on a net basis in the future, and even lift the bank SLR restrictions, releasing $420 billion or more. "The Federal Reserve has never been independent," Hayes mocked, citing Arthur Burns' speech, "When debt is overwhelming, Powell can only bend his knees." He predicted that QE will be restarted in the third quarter, and combined with interest rate cuts and SLR exemptions, a total of $3.24 trillion in liquidity may be injected.

The “domino effect” of global liquidity

Hayes's vision extends beyond the United States. He pointed out that the flood of dollars will trigger a chain reaction: "Xi Jinping will ask the central bank to loosen the currency to stabilize the exchange rate and increase the supply of RMB; Germany will use the printed euros to build an army, and other European countries will follow suit for fear of a "re-enactment of 1939." This global easing will give Bitcoin wings. "Bitcoin is the crystallization of technology + liquidity," he said. "The technology is mature, and liquidity is the only variable." He estimated that $250,000 is the target for the year, and $1 million is Trump's ultimate vision during his term.

Hayes also sees DOGE as an "economic tanker": cutting spending, laying off 400,000 employees, and cracking down on fraud will trigger a recession and force Powell to take action. "This is not an accident, it's a script," he joked, "Powell will either put out the fire in advance or wait for the big guys to fall and then clean up the mess, but the result is printing money."

The core disagreement: the abyss of austerity or the carnival of easing?

The disagreement between the two masters is like a peak showdown of philosophy and strategy, with the core focus on the game between policy path and liquidity:

Policy Intentions

Thompson sees Trump as a "cold-blooded surgeon" who uses DOGE, immigration policies and tariffs to reduce economic bubbles, even at the cost of recession. In his eyes, the White House would rather let the economy bleed to "cure the disease." Hayes sees him as a "real estate madman" who uses DOGE to create the illusion of recession and force the Federal Reserve to print money, but in fact paves the way for "America First." Thompson focuses on the direct consequences of tightening, while Hayes sees the motivation behind the easing.

Fed response

Thompson believes that the Fed is a "lukewarm spectator" who dares not to loosen up significantly under inflationary pressure, and QE is nowhere in sight. He expects Powell to be cautious and difficult to reverse the downward trend. Hayes countered that the Fed is a "tamed beast" and will restart QE under fiscal dominance and the threat of recession, and even offer SLR exemptions to become a liquidity fountain. He believes that Powell has no choice but to succumb.

Liquidity Results

Thompson predicts a "slow bear", where the economic slowdown depresses risk assets and Bitcoin slowly falls to 50,000-59,000. Hayes expects a "fast bull", where the liquidity flood pushes Bitcoin to 250,000, even laying the groundwork for a million dollars. The two have very different judgments on liquidity, one is bearish and the other is bullish.

Realistic progress, Hayes' $250,000 prediction is better?

In this 50,000 vs. 250,000 contest, data shows that Hayes' "250,000 frenzy" may be more forward-looking. Thompson's "slow bear" logic makes sense in the short term: DOGE's cuts have triggered an 11% drop in Washington house prices, worsening employment data, and the looming recession. The Fed's cautious attitude is also consistent with his judgment. Although Powell slowed down QT at the March meeting, he was still vague about QE. If the tightening exceeds expectations, it is not impossible for Bitcoin to fall to 60,000-70,000. However, this is just an appearance, and Hayes has grasped the deeper pulse.

Hayes hits the nail on the head in "KISS": Trump is not an economic puritan, but a believer in debt financing. He will not tolerate depression and destroy political capital, but will use DOGE's "illusion of tightening" to force Powell to open the floodgates. The slowdown of QT at the March FOMC meeting released $240 billion in liquidity, and Powell's hint of "net purchase of Treasury bonds" is already a prelude to QE. Although Hayes's estimated $3.24 trillion in liquidity (1.7 trillion in interest rate cuts + 540 billion in QT suspension + 500 billion to 1 trillion in QE/SLR) has not been fully realized, the direction is clear. What's more, the potential effects of global easing - China's stable exchange rate and Europe's military expansion - will amplify this torrent. As a "liquidity barometer", Bitcoin has stabilized at $76,500, indicating that the market has smelled a turnaround.

Thompson underestimated Trump's pragmatism and the passivity of the Federal Reserve. Hayes saw through the game between human nature and policy: Trump's "real estate showman" nature destined him to choose to print money, and Powell's "forced easing" under fiscal leadership is a historical destiny. My judgment is: in the short term (6-9 months), Bitcoin may fluctuate between 70,000 and 90,000 to digest the tightening pressure; but if QE is restarted in the third quarter, it is not a fantasy to sprint to 250,000 by the end of the year. Hayes' "alchemy" wins by grasping the lifeline of liquidity, rather than the illusion of tightening.

Epilogue: A symphonic duel from 50,000 to 250,000

This contest between 50,000 and 250,000 is a battle between a calm "scalpel" and a fanatical "alchemy furnace". Thompson is like a chess player, taking every step carefully, with a cold sense of reality in his pessimism; Hayes is like a gambling god, spending a lot of money, with a deep insight into policies in his optimism. No matter who laughs last, this debate reveals the true meaning of Bitcoin: it is not an island, but a mirror of the macro torrent. Investors may wish to "hold Thompson's caution in the left hand and Hayes's enthusiasm in the right hand" and wait for the thunder of QE in the shock. Will the bell of 250,000 ring at the end of the year? Are you ready for the climax of this symphony?