Written by: SuperEx
Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain
BTC is digital gold — this is a sentence that the vast majority of people in the crypto industry have heard and firmly believe.
This statement is true until 2025. However, many people have not yet realized that starting from 2025, the financial market is redefining asset attributes.
Bitcoin (BTC), once hailed as "digital gold", has seen its correlation with gold drop dramatically. In contrast, BTC's correlation with technology stocks has surged to 0.5 to 0.8, and its volatility pattern now resembles that of high-risk technology stocks rather than safe-haven assets. On the other hand, gold has regained favor with sovereign capital due to concerns about stagflation expectations and geopolitical tensions, with its price breaking through the $3,100 mark. Although it lacks the short-term explosiveness of cryptocurrencies, its annualized return of nearly 15% looks significantly more attractive. Global stock markets are oscillating between valuation bubbles and policy stimulus. For example, the U.S. stock market is hovering at a high level, relying heavily on expectations of interest rate cuts to maintain momentum.
This differentiation reveals a core contradiction: the conflict between traditional risk-averse logic and digital economic trends.
When Bitcoin’s “decentralized narrative” is dominated by institutional holdings;
When the "Millennium Consensus" of gold is challenged by the central bank's digital currency;
When stock valuations deviate from economic fundamentals—
Investors must re-examine the underlying value logic of these three major asset classes (Bitcoin, gold and stocks).
Bitcoin and Stocks: Changing Correlations and Their Implications
For a long time, Bitcoin has had a correlation of almost zero with the traditional stock market - one of the key reasons why Bitcoin, and the entire crypto market, is attractive to many investors.
This low correlation makes Bitcoin the ultimate portfolio diversifier. Not only is it uncorrelated to the stock market, it is uncorrelated to all major asset classes. It seems so unique that even Wall Street recognizes Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against economic uncertainty and market volatility.
However, this independence quietly changed in 2025. As mentioned at the beginning of this article, starting in 2025, the financial market is redefining asset attributes. Some analysts point out that Bitcoin's correlation with technology stocks has reached its highest level since August 2023. This shows that BTC's price movements are increasingly synchronized with technology stocks, which may indicate that the market now views Bitcoin as a growth asset.
In March, British banking giant Standard Chartered conducted a detailed study of Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market. They found that Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq is currently 0.5, and earlier this year, the number was as high as 0.8. What do these numbers mean? In simple terms, buying Bitcoin today is like buying a high-volatility tech stock. If tech stocks fall, Bitcoin is likely to fall; if tech stocks rise, Bitcoin is likely to rise.
This also means that the price trend of Bitcoin is no longer independent of the traditional stock market, and it is no longer regarded as the best safe-haven asset. Investors must consider more factors when predicting the price trend of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: How Digital Assets Compare to Traditional Safe-Hedge Instruments
1. Comparison of safe-haven properties
As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold has long been regarded by investors as a reliable tool to hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Its stability and value-preserving properties have established a broad consensus around the world.
In contrast, as an emerging digital asset, Bitcoin's safe-haven properties are still controversial. Some studies have shown that Bitcoin exhibits a certain correlation with gold during major geopolitical or economic events, showing certain safe-haven characteristics. However, due to the sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin prices, its stability as a safe-haven asset is far less than that of gold.
2. Price Fluctuation and Market Performance
Bitcoin's high volatility means its price can fluctuate wildly in the short term. In contrast, gold is less volatile and offers a more stable store of value.
For example, in 2024, gold prices rose nearly 8%, while Bitcoin fell 24%, reflecting the different ways the two assets react to market turmoil.
3. Market correlation analysis
The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is volatile and can change depending on market conditions.
In June 2024, data showed that the 60-day correlation between the two reached its highest level since 2022, approaching 0.5, indicating that their price movements were relatively aligned during this period. In July 2024, this correlation began to weaken, and the 30-day and 90-day correlation indicators showed intermittent peaks and troughs, indicating that the relationship between their price movements has weakened recently.
Portfolio Strategy Considerations
Given the differences between Bitcoin and gold in terms of safe-haven properties, price volatility, and market correlation, investors should consider the following when developing portfolio strategies:
Risk Tolerance: Bitcoin’s high volatility may bring high returns, but it also comes with high risks. Investors should assess their own risk tolerance to determine the appropriate proportion of Bitcoin in their portfolio.
Diversification: Due to the unstable correlation between Bitcoin and gold, including both in a portfolio may help diversify risk and enhance the stability of overall returns.
Market trend analysis: Continuously monitoring the market trends of Bitcoin and gold, as well as the macroeconomic factors that affect them, can help investors adjust their strategies in a timely manner.
in conclusion
Although Bitcoin has gradually moved away from the label of "digital gold" in the investment landscape of 2025 and its safe-haven properties have weakened, it is still one of the best hedge assets besides gold and one of the best tools for portfolio diversification.
In short, Bitcoin continues to attract investors seeking rapid growth with its high volatility and high return potential, although this comes with greater risks. On the other hand, gold maintains its position as a store of value asset with its stability and traditional safe-haven function. Investors should reasonably allocate these two assets according to their own risk tolerance and investment goals to achieve diversification and balance in the complex investment environment in 2025.
