Crypto Agent has pulled back by more than 70%. Is this a bubble burst or a bargain hunting opportunity?

Author: ABC Alpha DAO Researcher

Since January 27, when DeepSeek became popular around the world for its low-cost training model, global AI concept stocks have experienced panic declines, with Nvidia's stock falling directly by 17%. The Crypto Agent track has not been spared. As of today, the overall market value of the Crypto Agent track has fallen from US$12 billion to less than US$6 billion. Most blue-chip Agent tokens, such as Virtual, Ai16Z, ARC, Griffain, Aixbt, FAI, etc., have fallen by more than 70%, and many Agent concept tokens have fallen by more than 90%.

Currently, there is a lot of pessimism about the Agent track in the market, and many people directly deny this track, believing that Crypto Agent is just a short-term hype concept, but now the bubble has completely burst.

Will the Agent track be like NFT in 2022 and Inscription in 2023, and never recover from it?

Is the Agent track, which was highly anticipated by the industry a month ago, really going to die in the cradle before it even grows?

The author has been paying attention to the development of the Agent track. I have already written about the development and future of Crypto Agent, so I will not repeat it in this article. My views on the Agent track have not changed: Crypto Agent is a large track with long-term growth potential. This track will intersect and develop in parallel with the traditional AI industry, and will eventually grow different Agents in the Crypto field. Therefore, Crypto Agent is by no means a short-term concept hype, nor will it be short-lived like NFT and inscriptions. The Crypto Agent track will recover quickly after a short break. Crypto Agen is still the most noteworthy track in 2025.

To determine whether a Crypto track has long-term growth value, I think we only need to answer three questions:

1. Does this track truly solve problems and create value?

2. Does Crypto play an irreplaceable role in this field?

3. Is there a continuous influx of talent and capital in this field?

Below, we will start from the above three questions to explore whether Crypto Agent has long-term growth value, and finally answer whether Crypto Agent is a super track worthy of long-term attention?

1. What problems does Crypto Agent solve and what value does it create?

The essence of Agent is to act as an agent, that is, Agent replaces humans to complete a series of work or specific tasks, using Agent to replace humans who are more expensive, and Agent can do better and more efficiently than humans. Therefore, the value of Agent in various fields is mainly to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Then, the greatest value of Agent in the field of Crypto will also be to reduce costs and increase efficiency.

For example, in the field of scientific paper auditing, Agents can replace humans in correcting scientific papers, and can even be more accurate, faster, and cheaper than humans. #YNE is a very successful case;

For example, in the field of investment research and analysis, agents can replace investment researchers to do investment analysis. #AIXBT and #REI are good examples.

For example, in the field of brand marketing, agents can replace people to provide continuous 7*24 hours of brand exposure and community interaction. #Luna is a good example.

For example, in the DeFi field, Agent can replace humans to do smarter and more rational financial management, and Agent can even greatly lower the entry threshold of DeFi, thereby attracting more funds into the DeFi field. Therefore, the DeFAI sub-track has been extended, although the author prefers to call it DeFi Agent application. Here, #Buzz is a good example.

For example, the application of Agent in the SaaS field is to use Agent to replace programmers to deploy apps, that is, to use Agent to subvert the current SaaS field. This is one of the biggest application directions of Agent. This sentence is not mine, but the original words of Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella ("I think the notion of business applications might go away in the era of intelligent agents."). In the Crypto field, #Griffain is a good example.

The above examples are all biased towards the specific application direction of Crypto Agent. Although Crypto Agent applications are not perfect now, and are not even smart enough (the same is true for traditional Agent applications), human AI technology is developing rapidly, and the training cost is also greatly reduced. It is only a matter of time before large-scale Agent applications explode and become popular. Crypto Agent applications can also be quickly iterated and upgraded, thereby further playing a role in reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

Of course, in addition to Crypto Agent applications, the current Crypto Agent infrastructure is also very important, such as various Agent frameworks Virtual, ARC, Ai16Z, ALCH, etc. And infrastructures such as #REI and #FAI that explore the deep integration of Crypto and Agent are also worthy of attention.

Summary: The essence of Agent is agency, and its value is to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The problem solved by Crypto Agent application is to use smarter Agent to replace people to work, and its value is also to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The tokens issued by Agent as the cost of using the application will also play a role in the ecosystem.

2. Does Crypto play an irreplaceable role in the Agent track?

In the early days of Crypto Agent’s popularity, the author wrote an article on the relationship between Crypto and Agent and the final development of Crypto Agent. The original article is as follows: https://x.com/ABCAlphaDAO/status/1875429038719955189

The core point of the article is that Crypto is not only the currency of AI, but also the infrastructure that supports the identity, asset account, asset settlement and other needs of Agent (Silicon People). Agents without Crypto will lose their independent and credible social attributes. The development of Agent is inseparable from Crypto, and Agent will also become the largest service object of Crypto.

Here I briefly summarize three points:

1. In the future, mainstream agents will extend in two major directions. One is agent applications controlled by individuals or companies. These applications will act as tools for humans and exist dependent on human will. The other direction is agents that build identity and account systems based on Crypto. These agents are more independent and autonomous and have free social relationships and business networks. These agents are closer to "silicon-based people". Then, these agents must be built based on Crypto, which gives these agents an identity and asset account system based on private keys, because no sovereign country or organization will give these agents a borderless identity except Crypto.

2. Agents will become the largest user group of Crypto, and will also help Crypto to flourish. In the future, the number of Agents on the chain will exceed the number of human users. Crypto and Agents will be interdependent and mutually beneficial in the long run.

3. The consensus of the mainstream AI industry is that the large model model that relies solely on feeding data and computing power cannot produce real AI intelligence. Letting agents based on large models imitate the communication and interaction between humans, that is, letting agents interact with each other independently, that is, relying on emergence to generate wisdom, is the current AI exploration direction that is highly expected, and it is also the exploration path to AGI. Based on this background, truly independent agents must be built based on Crypto. Therefore, Crypto will play a long-term and irreplaceable role in the human exploration of AI.

Summary: Crypto is the infrastructure for Agents to have independent identities and account systems, and it is a necessary infrastructure. The number of Agents on the chain will exceed the number of real human users. Crypto and Agents are interdependent and mutually beneficial. Crypto will play a long-term and irreplaceable role in the human exploration of AI development.

3. Is there a continuous influx of talent and capital in the Agent track?

As we all know, Agent is not a concept unique to the Crypto industry, but the most mainstream development direction of the global AI industry. The current general consensus is that 2025 is the first year of Agent, and in the next 5-10 years, Agent will usher in sustained explosive growth.

Although DeepSeek's low-cost training model has had a huge impact on the AI industry, especially the AI chip industry, in a short period of time, these are short-term impacts. According to the Jevons paradox (technical efficiency improvement will stimulate demand), after the impact of DeepSeek, the AI and Agent fields will usher in a larger-scale explosion and growth.

Because the cost of AI training has dropped significantly, the cost of Agent R&D and use has also dropped exponentially, which will greatly promote the explosion and popularization of Agent applications, and a large number of ordinary people will be able to use Agents on a large scale. Just like the reduction in the production cost of smartphones has greatly increased the global Internet access rate and further promoted the development of the mobile interactive network economy.

Similarly, the continued development of the mainstream Agent industry will continue to output creativity and development nutrients for Crypto Agent, and the Crypto Agent market will enjoy the dividend spillover of the development of the mainstream AI industry for a long time.

Crypto's more free and efficient asset issuance and fundraising methods will continue to attract outstanding AI entrepreneurs from around the world to enter the Crypto field, and the Crypto Agent track will continue to absorb the overflow of talent and funds from the development of the traditional AI industry.

In 2025, we will see more and more outstanding talents in the professional AI field entering the Crypto field, which will bring a continuous influx of talent and funds to the Crypto Agent track, thereby pushing the entire track to a scale of over 100 billion US dollars.

Summarize:

This article explores whether the Crypto Agent track has long-term growth from three dimensions, explores the interaction between Crypto and Agent, and the impact of the development of the mainstream AI industry on the Crypto Agent track. The conclusion is that Crypto Agent meets the long-term growth track judgment criteria. After the Crypto market stabilizes and DeepSeek impacts, Crypto Agent will recover quickly and will usher in long-term explosive growth. Again, Crypto Agent is still the most noteworthy track in 2025 and even in this bull market.

Risk Warning:

This article only represents the personal views of ABC Alpha researchers. All opinions and reasoning are based on personal knowledge. The Agent tokens mentioned in the article are not investment advice. The Crypto market is a highly volatile industry. Please make investment decisions based on your personal knowledge.