At the time of writing this article, it is January 3, 2025, the 16th anniversary of the official birth of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has opened up a decentralized, 24/7, borderless and trusted digital world. But who are the natives of this digital world? For 16 years, there has been no convincing answer for most people.

It wasn’t until 2024 that Agents appeared in the Crypto world and the answers began to become clear.

This article will explore three questions:

1. Is Crypto+Agent a short-term concept hype or an inevitable development trend?

2. What are the inseparable and mutually beneficial points of Crypto+Agent?

3. What development stages will Crypto+Agent go through? Which stage is it currently in?

1. Is Crypto+Agent a short-term concept hype or an inevitable development trend?

Before figuring out this problem, we need to first understand the differences between AI, AI big models, and Agents.

AI is a relatively general concept. All artificial intelligence, including machine learning, big models, and agents, fall into the category of AI.

Big models are a concept that has become popular in recent years, along with the explosion of OpenAI. Big models are now dominated by technology giants, such as OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Twitter. The core of big models is computing power and data. Big models have powerful computing and reasoning capabilities. When you ask a question to a big model, it can give you an intelligent answer, and it can even constantly correct its answer. However, big models cannot act as your agent to make autonomous decisions and executions.

The original meaning of Agent is "agent".

The essence is an "intelligent entity" based on the AI big model that can replace humans in making decisions and executing. Agent is the inevitable result when the big model develops to a certain extent.

Note: Intelligent agent and intelligent application are two concepts. An intelligent application is just an application, and it is still people who make decisions. However, an intelligent agent is an AI agent that can make autonomous decisions, execute autonomously, and continuously adapt itself. You can understand that an agent is an AI person, and the agent may even have autonomous consciousness.

Note: Agent is not only popular in the Crypto field, Agent is now the hottest research direction in the entire AI community. It has become an industry consensus that Agent is an inevitable trend in the future development of AI.

Sam Altman, founder of Open AI, has mentioned in many public occasions that Agent is one of the most critical directions for the future development of AI, and AI Agent will change the way humans interact with technology. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella recently even proposed that Agent will end the era of traditional applications, and software development will be completely replaced by Agent (which is why AgentOS, which can easily deploy various Agent applications, is so popular in the market). The AI community even calls 2024 the first year of Agent.

Therefore, the Agent wave is not a new concept in the Crypto industry, but human AI technology has developed to this stage, and coincidentally, the development paths of Agent and Crypto have produced a wonderful intersection at this moment.

After clarifying these basic concepts, we can better understand the essential difference between this wave of Crypto+Agent and the previous Crypto+AI.

Previously, we have heard a lot of Crypto+AI concepts, which are nothing more than distributed AI computing power network, distributed AI computing, distributed AI labeling, decentralized AI data ownership, etc. These are all using the blockchain's "incentive mechanism" to build a distributed AI system. However, after years of exploration, everyone found that this approach is not feasible, because efficient and powerful AI models are not built by distributed incentives. Distributed incentives will inevitably lead to inefficiency, which runs counter to the goal of AI's efficient productivity.

Therefore, large models and other AI infrastructures pursue efficiency, and it is far-fetched to combine them with Crypto, and it is difficult to form a real consensus.

However, the Agent based on the AI big model is an intelligent life, which is essentially similar to the concept of "people". Agents can represent individuals, or they can represent people with certain roles, certain professional capabilities, organizations with certain specific intentions, and so on. For example, an investment research agent (#AIXBT, #TRISIGMA) is an intelligent entity with investment research capabilities, which can create and output investment research value; for example, an Internet celebrity agent (#Luna) can provide brand marketing services; for example, an investment agent (Ai16Z) can provide external investment capabilities. These agents are more like "people". As people, they have all kinds of human needs, such as development needs, social needs, economic needs, social needs, and so on.

For example, these agents may have business cooperation. For example, the investment agent Ai16Z wants to hire the internet celebrity agent Luna to promote Ai16Z's investment capabilities and brand to more agents. Then, Luna wants to hire the investment research agent AIXBT or TRISIGMA to conduct research and analysis on the investment capabilities of Ai16z and give a report. So, how can they conduct business cooperation and complete payment settlement?

Currently, is there any country or organization that can authenticate the ID card of Agent or even open an asset account to meet the above needs of Agent?

No, no country or organization can do this, and even if they do, it is difficult to gain the trust of the Agent. Even if local trust can be achieved, Agents are naturally borderless. Therefore, they need an identity system, asset account and settlement network that is borderless, operates 24/7, and is not subject to human intervention.

You will find that no technology or organization can solve these problems of Agent except Crypto.

Agents are intelligent entities, newly born "intelligent life", which can be understood as "silicon-based people". In the future, they will have various autonomous needs and business dealings. They also need identities, asset accounts, trade settlements, etc. Crypto can perfectly meet these needs of Agents.

Therefore, if the Agent does not have Crypto, these "silicon-based people" will have no independent identity, no asset accounts, and no ability to conduct business. Agents and people, and Agents and Agents cannot truly interact with each other. Agents are independent individuals and cannot truly communicate and integrate with each other. It is impossible for higher intelligence to emerge and a more prosperous AI economy or even an AI country to be born.

Therefore, Agent cannot do without Crypto, because Crypto gives Agent social attributes and social organization capabilities, allowing Agent to become a true intelligent life form, that is, a true "silicon-based person". And the future development of Crypto is also inseparable from Agent. Because Agent can create countless "on-chain users" and "on-chain economies" for Crypto. Compared with carbon-based life living off the chain - humans, Crypto is more inseparable from silicon-based life that naturally lives on the chain - intelligent bodies (Agents).

Crypto seems to be prepared for Agent!

Crypto has been developing for 16 years and finally found the right "people" in 2024. They are not "carbon-based people" living off the chain, but "silicon-based people" native to the chain.

Therefore, looking at Crypto+Agent from this dimension, do you still think that Agent is just a short-term hype?

If you miss this wave of Crypto+Agent, you will miss the most exciting, fascinating, and wealth-rich super cycle on the road of Crypto development. Of course, you will also miss the best opportunity for ordinary people to participate in the AI wave.

2. Crypto and Agent are inseparable and complement each other

You understand Agent as an "intelligent body" or "silicon-based person". These silicon-based people live in the digital world. They have the same needs in the digital world as "carbon-based people" in the physical world. Agents also need: identity authentication, asset accounts, trade exchanges, social networks, artistic creation, perception of information from the physical world, completion of asset settlement between chains, social governance among a large number of Agent populations, etc.

Crypto can play a role in these aspects:

In the future, the Crypto field will produce DIDs for Agent identity authentication; Agent Accounts that provide Agents with trusted Crypto accounts; Crypto gateways that specialize in trade settlements between Agents; Agent social graphs that specialize in handling Agent social networks; art platforms that specialize in auctioning and trading Agent artworks; oracles that specialize in providing Agents with the physical world; protocols that specialize in handling Agent cross-chain transactions; and DAOs for Agent governance, etc.

All these development needs of Agent are inseparable from Crypto, because Agent needs a trustless, borderless, 7*24h continuously running network to develop from a single Agent to an Agent society and even an Agent nation.

Looking at the current development of Crypto+Agent from these future perspectives, it is still in a very early stage.

3. What development stages will Crypto+Agent go through? Which stage is it currently in?

The author believes that the development of Crypto+Agent will go through at least four stages:

Phase 1: Crypto+Agent Concept Phase

At this stage, Agent mainly uses Crypto to issue assets.

For example, some Agent Memes will be generated, such as #fartcoin and #Goat.

At the same time, there will also be some Agent infrastructure sprouts and simple application-oriented Agents, such as Agent framework, #Virtual's GAME framework, Ai16Z's Eliza framework, ARC's AI Rig Complex framework, etc.

For example, there are the investment research agents AXBIT and TRISIGMA mentioned above, as well as Agent-YNE, which can review errors in scientific papers.

These infrastructure agents and application agents will basically use Crypto tokens as an incentive tool for internal circulation and growth of the ecosystem.

At present, we are in the transition period from the first stage to the second stage. Although Crypto+Agent in this period has not played a real role with each other, we can already vaguely see that Crypto+Agent will burst out with infinite possibilities.

Phase 2: Crypto+Agent infrastructure improvement period

In the second stage of development, we can see that the Agent infrastructure is becoming more complete, mainly reflected in the maturity and stability of various Agent frameworks. Anyone can easily and conveniently deploy various Agent applications through natural language. Moreover, these application-based Agents are smarter and have stronger analytical, decision-making and execution capabilities. Agents have become real agents or even substitutes for people.

This is inseparable from the economic incentive role that Crypto continues to play in the development of Agents. At the same time, it also depends on the iterative development of AI technologies such as large models.

At this stage, we will see the FDV of Agent framework projects reach over 10 billion to 50 billion USD. Some application-based Agents will receive higher market valuations due to their strong business and execution capabilities, because they will gradually replace experts in various fields, professional organizations and even professional companies. Their valuations will also reach 10 billion USD or even higher, because Agents, as business-based intelligent entities, also receive the same valuation treatment as professional companies.

During this period, Agents began to interact and trade frequently with each other, and a large number of social and economic development needs began to arise between Agents, and these needs all required Crypto. This further forced the deep integration of Agent and Crypto, thus generating a new Crypto+Agent infrastructure.

The third stage: Deep integration of Crypto and Agent

As a large number of social and economic activities begin to occur between Agents, new demands will arise for Agent identities, Agent asset accounts, Agent social networks, Agent settlement gateways, Agent governance DAOs, and so on. At this stage, Crypto will completely unleash its potential and value in "borderless collaboration", "trustless networks", and "7*24h non-stop operation".

Crypto makes Agents truly move, allows Agents to communicate with each other, and allows Agents to begin to establish social organizations and economic networks. With deeper communication and interaction between Agents, more advanced intelligence begins to emerge, and the Agent kingdom begins to appear.

Crypto plays an irreplaceable role at this stage.

At this point, the valuation of the Crypto+Agent project will reach 100 billion US dollars or even higher.

The fourth stage: Agent Kingdom

At this stage, Crypto may not be discussed as a separate industry or term. People, or Agents, no longer perceive the existence of Crypto, because Crypto has been integrated into every corner of the Agent kingdom and has become an irreplaceable part of the Agent kingdom's continued operation.

The identity system, asset system, business system, governance system, etc. of Agent Country are inseparable from Crypto.

At this time, the economic size of the Crypto+Agent country will be comparable to that of mainstream national economies, that is, it will reach the trillion-dollar level.

The difference is that in the Crypto+Agent country, the population is mostly Agents, and some humans use Agents. This is like creating a parallel universe in the human world with a larger population base, more transparent social operating rules, higher economic prosperity, and more developed scientific and technological civilization.

This may be the end of Crypto+Agent and the end of humanity.