- Bitcoin surged to $95,490 as the market waited with bated breath for Trump’s 100-day speech. Investors withdrew more than $4 billion in BTC from exchanges in the past week, sending a strong bullish signal.
- Trump’s policy mix — including the possible creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and renewed tariff threats — is creating both opportunities and risks, with Bitcoin benefiting from growing safe-haven demand as stock markets come under pressure.
- On-chain data shows that the reserves of Bitcoin on exchanges have dropped sharply. If market momentum and supply tightening continue, conditions are ripe for breaking through the $100,000 mark.
Monday's strong rebound
Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded strongly to $95,490 on Monday, just as the market prepared for Trump’s 100th day speech. As the announcement of cryptocurrency-specific policies approaches, investors have begun to adjust their positions - and on-chain data has begun to show signs of this.
Driving force above $95,000
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin rose 0.8% in 24 hours to $95,490.92. During the trading session on Monday, BTC fluctuated between $92,953 and $95,490, maintaining its recent upward momentum. The weekly performance was also solid, up 8.9% from last Monday, and the cumulative increase in the past 30 days was about 15%. The crypto market is closely watching whether Trump will make a clear statement on the rumored Bitcoin strategic reserve proposal.
Capital Migration
More than $4 billion worth of Bitcoin has flowed out of exchanges alone in the past week, following Trump’s controversial call for rate cuts. Investors are apparently moving tokens to cold wallets, which is often a precursor to bullish prices.
The Crypto Effect of Trump’s 100 Days in Office
Bitcoin's rally is not an isolated event - it is moving in sync with U.S. stocks, especially tech giants, as the market tries to anticipate possible signals from Trump's speech. Analysts say that if Trump formally supports Bitcoin reserves, it could trigger a parabolic rally to $100,000. On the other hand, if the focus shifts too much to tariffs or severe budget cuts, it could hit the overall market and limit Bitcoin's short-term upside.
TradingEconomics data showed that inflation has fallen from 9.1% in 2022 to 2.4% in March 2025. Trump was quick to take credit for the move, but economists warn that his pro-tariff policies could reignite inflationary pressures.
Expectations of rate cuts cool
Despite Trump's strong pressure to cut interest rates and even threats to replace Fed Chairman Powell, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged at the May 7 meeting is as high as 90.1%. In short: the market has heard Trump's request, but has not yet bought it.
Asset rotation under the shadow of tariffs
Trump's continued tariff rhetoric continues to hit U.S. stocks (especially the technology stocks known as the "Magnificent Seven"), and this uncertainty is actually helping Bitcoin - its safe-haven properties as "digital gold" are gaining recognition.
In comparison, Bitcoin is up 5.6% this year, while the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones are all down 5% over the same period. Investors fleeing the turbulent traditional financial markets are beginning to favor Bitcoin's relative strength.
$100,000 in sight?
The geopolitical tensions and market anxiety during the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency unexpectedly became a tailwind for Bitcoin. BTC’s holding on to the $90,000 mark amid the clamor is of great significance, demonstrating its resilience while also retaining the hope of hitting $100,000.
CryptoQuant on-chain data reveals key trends:
• Exchange Bitcoin reserves have dropped by more than $4 billion since April 22
• Deposits fell sharply from $237.8 billion to $233.8 billion in a single week
• Potential supply crunch is building
If demand remains hot and available supply continues to shrink, the time when Bitcoin breaks through the six-figure mark may come sooner than most people expect.
