1. Market observation
Keywords: Coinbase, ETH, BTC
BTC fell below $77,000 this morning. Greeks.live briefings show that traders are generally bearish at present, with most focusing on the $74,000-76,000 area as a potential downside target, and $87,000 as a resistance level. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts that Bitcoin may bottom out around $70,000, which is equivalent to a 36% correction from the historical high of $110,000, which is a normal adjustment in the bull market. Although Strategy did not increase its holdings of Bitcoin last week, it has submitted a new prospectus to issue $21 billion in preferred shares, which may be used to purchase Bitcoin.
In the case of Ethereum, the situation is even more serious. Its price has fallen below $1,800 this morning. An address holding 65,000 ETH is facing liquidation risk, and another whale has sold 25,800 ETH for risk aversion, with a loss of $31.75 million. Yuga Labs executives warned that if the market enters a bear market, ETH may fall below $1,500, or even reach the $200-400 range, which is consistent with the 90% maximum retracement in historical bear markets.
In the traditional financial market, the US stock market experienced a "Black Monday", with the Nasdaq falling 4%, Tesla falling 15%, and blockchain concept stocks generally falling, including Coinbase falling 17.58% and MicroStrategy falling 16.68%. In this regard, Arthur Hayes believes that the next step is to pay attention to the plunge in US stocks and the risk of bankruptcy of traditional financial institutions, and then major central banks may adopt loose policies to stimulate the economy. Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, believes that the market is digesting the last stage of the recession and expects a deflationary boom in the second half of the year. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently said that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates due to the continued strength of the labor market, the uneven inflation path, and the uncertainty of the impact of Trump's trade, fiscal, immigration and regulatory policies. Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for US economic growth to 1.7% and raised its inflation forecast. It is worth noting that futures traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June, July and October.
Facing the current market situation, Delphi Digital researcher Minty suggested that investors should not measure investment by historical highs, but rather a target of 50-70%. He said that most altcoins may never return to their historical highs, major opportunities only appear a few times a year and are fleeting, and over-trading and lack of patience are the main reasons for profit loss.
2. Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on March 11)
Fear index: 24 (extreme fear)
- 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9685
Average GAS: BTC 3 sat/vB, ETH 1.11 Gwei
Market share: BTC 61.1%, ETH 8.7%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH
Sector ups and downs: DeFi sector fell 8.32%, Meme sector fell 9.19%
Bitcoin: $80,007.13 (-14.6% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $58.486 billion
Ethereum: $1,865.44 (-44.05% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $38.414 billion
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 336,581 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$956 million, including BTC liquidation of US$318 million and ETH liquidation of US$252 million.
3. ETF flows (as of March 10 EST)
Bitcoin ETF: -$189 million
Ethereum ETF: -$34 million
4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)
US President Trump met with US technology leaders, including the CEOs of HP, Intel, IBM, and Qualcomm. (March 11, 2:00)
US President Trump signed an executive order. US February unadjusted CPI annual rate (March 12, 20:30)
Actual: None / Previous: 3% / Expected: 2.9%
U.S. February seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate (March 12, 20:30)
Actual: None / Previous: 0.50% / Expected: 0.30%
Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending March 8 (10,000 people) (March 13, 20:30)
Actual: None / Previous: 22.1 / Expected: None
5. Hot News
El Salvador and Paraguay Sign Cryptocurrency Regulatory Agreement
Bithumb launches Elixir (ELX) Korean Won trading market
Longling Capital transferred 21,000 ETH to Binance, about 38.81 million US dollars
Mt. Gox transfers about 11,502 BTC to unknown wallet, possibly related to creditor repayment plan
BTC falls below $77,000, down 3.80% on the day
Solana transaction fees fall to lowest level since September 2024, on-chain activity drops sharply
Black Monday in US stocks: Nasdaq plunges 4% and Tesla falls 15%
Coinbase will launch Cookie DAO (COOKIE)
Coinbase to launch 24/7 Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts in the U.S.
Movement public mainnet Beta is now live
UK Treasury: No plans to introduce US-style Bitcoin reserves
Thai regulator adds stablecoins USDC, USDT to approved cryptocurrencies
Strategy files prospectus for offering up to $21 billion in preferred stock
Crypto executives suggest that Bitcoin can be exchanged for Trump's "gold card"
Singapore Exchange plans to launch Bitcoin perpetual futures contracts in the second half of 2025
Market News: Japan's cryptocurrency reform bill will be submitted to the Diet after cabinet approval
