1. Current situation: The contradiction between the outbreak of BSC chain MEME projects and market differentiation
1. Short-term craze of MEME project
- The skyrocketing myth of TST and CaptainBNB: MEME tokens on the BSC chain continue to attract speculative funds. For example, the test token TST mentioned by CZ once soared to 41 million US dollars due to community speculation, and CaptainBNB rose by more than 13,000% in 6 hours after its launch. Such projects have become the focus of retail investors with their "zero value support + social media fission" model.
- Speculative logic dominates: Market funds are diverted from mainstream tracks such as Bitcoin and Layer2 to MEME coins, reflecting investors' short-term gaming mentality during periods of policy uncertainty.
2. Expectations gap of Trump’s policies
- The bubble and controversy of TRUMP coin: The market value of TRUMP coin issued by the Trump family once exceeded 12 billion US dollars, but it was later questioned as a "disguised corruption tool". The "First Lady Coin" issued by his wife Melania further dispersed market funds, causing the price to fall sharply
- Regulatory relaxation has not met expectations: Although Trump promised to replace the SEC chairman and promote the strategic reserve of Bitcoin, the policy has been slow to be implemented, and the market's optimism about "deregulation" has gradually faded.
2. The core contradiction behind the cold market
1. The short-term nature of liquidity release and the imbalance of market structure
- Limitations of TGA liquidity injection: The U.S. Treasury released about $150-250 billion in liquidity through the TGA account, driving a short-term rise in risk assets, but such operations are temporary and difficult to support a long-term bull market
- "Precise re-allocation" of funds: Institutional funds are concentrated in Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock IBIT), while the altcoin market lacks incremental funds. The MEME craze is more of an internal rotation of existing funds.
2. Macroeconomic and policy uncertainty
- Dual pressures of inflation and debt: Trump’s trade protectionism policy pushes up supply chain costs, and core inflation may rebound to 2.8%-3%, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates and suppress risk appetite
- Political risks increase: Trump family's issuance of MEME coins raises compliance questions. If the SEC intervenes in the investigation, it may trigger panic selling in the market.
3. The unsustainability of the MEME model
- Zero value support and high volatility: Most MEME projects on the BSC chain have no actual use cases and rely on community hype. Once the hype fades (such as TST being denied listing by Binance), the price may plummet by more than 90%
- Regulatory risks escalate: The U.S. Congress has debated the legality of politicians issuing tokens. If legislation restricts it, the MEME track will face systemic risks
3. Future predictions: differentiation, reconstruction and long-term opportunities
1. Market differentiation is intensifying
- Bitcoin's strategic position strengthens: Standard Chartered Bank and other institutions predict that Bitcoin may exceed $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to the inflow of funds from US pension ETFs, becoming a core asset against inflation
- MEME track reshuffle: only a few projects (such as MEME coins combined with AI or practical scenarios) may survive, and most will return to zero due to liquidity depletion
2. Policy-driven structural opportunities
- Clarification of regulatory framework: If Trump successfully pushes for the FIT21 Act, compliant exchanges and stablecoin issuers (such as Circle) will benefit, while gray projects will face elimination
- Layer2 and DeFi recovery: With the implementation of the Ethereum Cancun upgrade, tokens such as ARB and OP may rebound due to technological upgrades and ecological expansion, with a target increase of 50%-100%
3. Macro liquidity rebalancing
- Fed policy shift: If inflation falls below 2.5% in the second half of 2025, rising expectations of rate cuts may trigger a general rise in the crypto market, and Bitcoin is expected to hit $250,000 (Nexo forecast)
- Fund inflows into emerging markets: As the dollar strengthens, investors in Latin America and Southeast Asia may increase their holdings of cryptocurrencies to hedge against the risk of currency depreciation, driving up demand for BTC, XRP, etc.
IV. Investor strategy: defense and offense coexist
1. Short-term defensive allocation
- Reduce leverage: It is recommended to control the contract leverage to 3-5 times to avoid holding MEME coins overnight
- Increase holdings of stablecoins: keep 20%-30% of funds in USDC or DAI to prevent black swan events
2. Mid- to long-term offensive direction
- Bitcoin fixed investment: build positions in batches in the range of US$78,000-82,000, with a long-term target of US$180,000-200,000
- Layer2 leader layout: If OP and ARB fall back to below $0.4 and $1.0, they can gradually absorb funds and the gaming ecosystem will explode with dividends
3. Beware of risk points
- Trump policy variables: If he fails to deliver on his cryptocurrency-friendly policies, the market may correct by 10%-15%
- MEME project collapse: closely monitor trading volume and community activity, set strict stop loss (if the price falls below the support level by 20%)
Conclusion
The crypto market in 2025 is in a tug-of-war between "Trump economics" and the MEME bubble. In the short term, the BSC chain's carnival can hardly cover up the policy and liquidity dilemma; in the long term, Bitcoin's scarcity and compliance process remain the core themes. Investors need to remain rational in the frenzy and capture reconstruction opportunities in the differentiation.
