1. Event trigger: How tariff policy "strangles" the global market
1. Policy shocks and market crashes
- US stock market crash: After Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs" on April 3, the three major US stock indexes collectively plunged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 5.5% in a single day and the S&P 500 falling 5.97%. The market value of the "Seven Sisters" of technology stocks evaporated by more than US$505 billion;
- A-shares followed the decline: On April 7, the three major A-share indices opened more than 4% lower, and the ChiNext Index fell 6.77%, and market panic spread;
- Cryptocurrency plummeted: Bitcoin fell below $83,000, Ethereum plummeted 10%, and MEME coins on the BSC chain were generally halved;
2. Global assets fell indiscriminately
- Commodity market: WTI crude oil fell below $60 per barrel, hitting a new low since 2021; gold's safe-haven properties temporarily failed, and spot gold once fell below $3,000;
- Exchange rate fluctuations: The Japanese yen rose by 1% due to safe-haven demand, and non-US currencies such as the Australian dollar and the euro collectively depreciated;
2. Deeper logic: Trade War 2.0 and market pricing reconstruction
1. History repeating itself? The ghost of the Smoot-Hawley tariff
- The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 triggered a global trade war and led to the Great Depression. Now Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" cover all trading partners, with a tax rate of up to 49%, and the risk of global supply chain disruption has increased sharply;
- Threat of inflation spiral: 97% of clothing and footwear in the United States are imported. UBS estimates that the price of daily consumer goods may rise by 10%-12%, and low-income families will bear the brunt;
2. The “triple decoupling” of the Sino-US game
- Progressive pressure from trade, technology and finance: Everbright Securities pointed out that tariffs are just the beginning, and subsequent technological blockades (such as AI chip export restrictions) and financial sanctions (delisting of Chinese concept stocks) may follow;
- China's response logic: Huatai Securities analyzed that China has sufficient policy tools, and reserve requirement ratio cuts, consumption stimulus, and infrastructure investment may become the main hedging force, and the strategic position of domestic demand will be enhanced;
3. The “de-risking paradox” of cryptocurrency
- The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets (such as the Nasdaq) has risen to 0.5, losing its “digital gold” halo;
- Leverage liquidation chain reaction: high leverage positions (e.g. 20x) of MEME coins on the BSC chain are liquidated in batches after the price fluctuates by 5%, exacerbating the sell-off;
3. Trend Prediction: Structural Opportunities in the Storm
1. Short-term market path
- Key points: Tariffs officially take effect on April 9, and China's countermeasures are implemented on April 10. If the negotiations are not restarted, the US stock market may fall another 5%-10%;
- Cryptocurrency rebound opportunity: If BTC stabilizes at $80,000, MEME coin may rebound due to community enthusiasm, but we need to be wary of regulatory crackdowns (such as the Trump family token incident);
2. Medium- and long-term asset allocation logic
- Safe-haven assets: Gold (target $3,100), Japanese Yen and Treasury bond ETFs (such as TLT) remain safe havens for funds;
- Counter-cyclical track:
Consumption and infrastructure: With the domestic demand policy in China, leading home appliances and building materials companies (such as Midea and Conch Cement) may benefit;
Technological independence: Domestic chips (SMIC) and AI big models (Baidu Wenxin) have received policy support, and valuation recovery is expected;
- Cryptocurrency value reshaping:
RWA track: Tokenized U.S. debt (such as Ondo Finance) and mortgage lending (Maple Finance) have an annualized return of over 4%, attracting institutions such as Grayscale to increase their holdings;
Layer2 technology dividend: Ethereum Pectra upgrade may activate staking demand, ARB, OP and other tokens are expected to rise by 50% in the medium term;
IV. Investor Strategies: Defense, Hedging and Left-Side Layout
1. Defensive Operations
- Reduce holdings of highly volatile assets: liquidate MEME coins and technology stocks, and retain 20%-30% in cash or stablecoins (USDC, DAI);
- Option protection: Buy BTC put options (strike price $75,000) and Nasdaq ETF put options (strike price 10% lower than the current price);
2. Hedging and arbitrage
- Cross-market arbitrage: long gold/short crude oil (historical volatility difference expanded to 30%), long yen/short Australian dollar;
- A/H share premium converges: increase holdings of undervalued blue chips in Hong Kong stocks (such as Tencent and Meituan) to bet on capital return;
3. Opportunities for layout on the left
- Bitcoin fixed investment: buy in batches in the range of 76,000-82,000 US dollars, with a long-term target of 180,000 US dollars (Galaxy forecast);
- Policy-benefiting stocks: sectors such as environmental protection (carbon neutrality subsidies) and military industry (geopolitical tensions) may strengthen against the trend;
Conclusion: Finding Certainty in Uncertainty
The tariff storm in 2025 is both the pain of globalization and an opportunity for asset revaluation. History has proven that trade protectionism will eventually backfire on itself, and technological revolution and policy wisdom are the key to breaking the deadlock. Investors need to abandon the fantasy of "quick victory", capture structural dividends in defense, and wait for dawn in the eye of the storm.
