Original title: This is where crypto insiders see the market head next

Original author: Eric Johansson

Original source: https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/this-is-where-crypto-insiders-see-the-market-head-next/

Translated by: Daisy, Mars Finance

Cryptocurrency insiders predict where the market is headed next

  • The total market value of cryptocurrencies has evaporated by 12% in the past week
  • The following are the predictions of industry insiders on market trends

Prepare for the pain of labor

This basically summarizes the core views of cryptocurrency industry stakeholders and analysts a week after Trump’s tariff policy caused the entire cryptocurrency market to evaporate about 12% (US$335 billion) in market value.

At least that's their take on the short-term trend. In the long term, traders seem to be holding out hope.

"Market sentiment is tense but not completely pessimistic," Timo Lehs, co-founder of cryptocurrency trading platform Swarm Markets, told DL News. "Macroeconomic pressures and regulatory uncertainty continue to exert pressure, but this pressure is mitigated by the stubborn optimism unique to cryptocurrency practitioners."

He and other experts shared insights as the U.S. president's sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries took effect on Wednesday.

Short-term pain

Risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and technology stocks have been hit particularly hard in this round of market downturn. The Nasdaq 100 index, which is dominated by technology stocks, has fallen about 11% in the past week.

"This type of macro uncertainty often triggers a risk-off reaction, with investors pulling back to wait and see how growth, policy, and trade situations develop," said Weizheng Deng, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Binance, in a statement.

Bitcoin has fallen 9% in the past seven days to around $77,000, but Joel Kruger, a cryptocurrency trading market strategist at LMAX Group, believes it could fall to $70,000.

Long-term bullish

Even as traders brace for further declines, industry insiders remain optimistic in public comments.

Market observers such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes are betting that the Federal Reserve will respond to the crisis by allowing more money to flow through the U.S. economy. If the Fed does so, he expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of the year.

The first clues to the Fed’s reaction will come on Wednesday when the minutes of its March meeting, which was held before Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, are released.

"Any hint that the Fed is leaning toward a more accommodative policy path could be a positive stimulus for markets, including cryptocurrencies," Krueger said.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in May is 54%, and the probability of a rate cut in the July meeting is 96%. Interest rate cuts usually stimulate investment in risky assets.

"There will be some rate cuts and some liquidity injections this year," Alice Liu, head of research at cryptocurrency data company CoinMarketCap, told DL News. "The specific intensity or exact timing depends on the power game between the Fed and the Trump administration."

Her prediction? The measures will be implemented by the third quarter, pushing Bitcoin to new highs, she said.

"We're going to see new all-time highs by the end of the year," she said