Returning to the road of "world computer", a brief analysis of Ethereum's five major technical strategies for the future

Ethereum's future technical roadmap outlines five key strategies aimed at enhancing scalability, efficiency, and adoption, with significant implications for its ecosystem and ETH valuation:

zkEVM Layer1 Integration (Q4 2025-Q2 2026): Targets 99% block verification within 10 seconds and an 80% reduction in zero-knowledge proof costs. Expected to boost stablecoin adoption, increase gas usage (promoting ETH deflation), and enable institutional DeFi applications through compliance and privacy features.
RISC-V New Architecture (2025-2030): Aims to improve smart contract efficiency by 3-5x, reduce gas costs by 50-70%, and replace EVM with an open-source architecture. This could unlock high-frequency trading, real-time gaming, and micropayments while expanding ETH's user base.
Layer1-Layer2 Ecosystem Synergy (Q4 2025-2027): Focuses on seamless interoperability between L1 and L2 (e.g., Arbitrum, Optimism), unifying liquidity pools (targeting $200B TVL), and cutting cross-layer costs by 90%. Enhances DeFi capital efficiency and user experience.
Validator Economic Optimization (2025-2027): Plans to lower staking thresholds (from 32 ETH to 1 ETH), increase annualized returns (4-6% to 6-8%), and simplify validator operations. Expected to raise ETH staking rates to 40%, reducing supply and reinforcing deflationary expectations.
Sharding Technology Return (ETH 3.0, 2026-2028+): Combines zkEVM and sharding for millions of TPS, 99% lower data costs, and distributed validation. Positions Ethereum for mass Web3 adoption, reviving its "world computer" vision.

Based on Ethereum's technical roadmap for the next two years, we share some "technical breakthroughs" that may support prices (specially provided by E Guards):

1) zkEVM layer1 integration

Implementation timeline: Mainnet deployment completed in Q4 2025-Q2 2026;

Technical goals:

-99% of blocks are verified within 10 seconds;

-Zero-knowledge proof verification costs are reduced by 80%;

Significance of realization:

- The market share of stablecoins such as USDC and USDT on the Ethereum main chain will further expand, and the daily gas consumption will increase accordingly, directly promoting ETH deflation;

-zkEVM zero-knowledge proof technology provides compliance and privacy protection for traditional financial institutions, and large-scale DeFi application scenarios of institutions are expected to be activated;

2) RISC-V implements new architecture

Implementation timeline: Research and development will begin in the second half of 2025, and will be slowly implemented in phases from 2026 to 2030;

Technical goals:

- Smart contract execution efficiency increased by 3-5 times;

- Gas costs reduced by 50-70%;

- The open source instruction set architecture replaces the current EVM and is more compatible with modern hardware acceleration technology;

Significance of realization:

- The magnitude of the execution performance improvement will give rise to new application scenarios, such as high-frequency trading, real-time gaming, AI reasoning, micropayments, microtransactions, etc.

- Lower gas costs will reactivate small transaction scenarios, significantly expand the user base and usage frequency, and form a positive cycle of ETH demand;

3) Layer1-Layer2 Ecosystem Synergy

Implementation timeline: Starting in Q4 2025, with continuous optimization in 2026-2027;

Technical goals:

- Enable seamless interoperability between L1 and major L2 (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, etc.);

- The decentralized liquidity is now about 120 billion TVL, and the unified liquidity pool TVL exceeds 200 billion US dollars;

- Cross-layer transaction costs are reduced by 90%, achieving cross-layer confirmation within 10 seconds;

Significance of realization:

- DeFi protocols can more efficiently aggregate the liquidity of the entire ecosystem (L1+L2), generate a network effect of 1+1>2, and greatly improve the capital efficiency and application experience of the entire Ethereum ecosystem;

4) Validator Economic Optimization

Implementation timeline: Starting in the second half of 2025, with simultaneous optimization in conjunction with various technology upgrades, and continued for 2 years;

Technical goals:

- The minimum staking threshold for validators will be gradually reduced from 32 ETH to 16 ETH, and eventually to 1 ETH;

- The annualized return on pledge will be increased from the current 4-6% to 6-8%;

- Simplify the threshold for validators to operate, support light node verification, and improve the degree of network decentralization;

Significance of realization:

- The lowering of the validator threshold and the optimization of the revenue model will increase the ETH staking rate from the current 25% to more than 40% (about 48 million ETH locked), further reducing the circulating supply of ETH and strengthening the expectation of deflation;

- Increased staking returns will enhance the attractiveness of ETH as a "digital bond" and provide fundamental support for its valuation;

5) Sharding technology returns (ETH 3.0)

Implementation timeline: Design and development will begin in 2026, and implementation will be in 2027-2028 or later;

Technical goals:

- Combine zkEVM+sharding to achieve millions of transactions per second;

- Data availability costs reduced by 99%;

- Distribute blockchain data to multiple shards, so that validators only need to process part of the data;

Significance of realization:

- The reintroduction of sharding shows that Ethereum is preparing for the mass adoption of Web3 in the next decade, and the long-cherished dream of "world computer" will be re-upped on the agenda;