Trading time: Bitcoin is expected to rise to $112,000 on the eve of non-farm payrolls, while Ethereum is testing the $4,200 support.

Bitcoin's price action is heavily influenced by expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 97.6% probability priced in for September. Key support is seen at $107,000-$108,500; a break below could push prices toward $93,000, while a break above $114,000-$116,000 could reignite the uptrend toward $112,000 and beyond.
Ethereum is testing crucial support near $4,215-$4,250. A break below may trigger a correction toward $4,000-$4,050, with a deeper pullback to $3,800 possible. $1.27 billion in ETH options are expiring, with $4,400 as the maximum pain point.
In altcoins, the tokenized Pokémon card project CARDS surged nearly tenfold, highlighting the crypto transformation of real-world assets. Conversely, the Trump-affiliated WLFI token plummeted amid controversy, including claims from Justin Sun that $9 million of his tokens were frozen.
Key data shows BTC trading at ~$111,631 and ETH at ~$4,339. The market saw $253 million in liquidations, with significant outflows from both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
Market attention is focused on the upcoming US non-farm payrolls report, with expectations for only 75,000 new jobs and a rising unemployment rate, which could further solidify the case for rate cuts.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Ahead of tonight's crucial US non-farm payroll report , market sentiment was generally impacted by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data, including a sharp slowdown in ADP job growth and higher-than-expected initial jobless claims. These data reinforced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. Economists predict only 75,000 new non-farm payrolls in August, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to a three-year high of 4.3%. A report in line with or weaker than expected would further solidify the path for rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool currently indicates a 97.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. The market hopes this policy shift will drive a rebound in Bitcoin prices.

At the same time, in terms of trade policy, US President Trump has signed an executive order to officially reduce the tariff on Japanese imported cars from 27.5% to 15%. This move eliminates uncertainty in the Japanese auto industry and locks in an agreement for Japan to invest $550 billion in US projects and expand agricultural product purchases.

Driven by macroeconomic expectations, the Bitcoin market is in a critical consolidation phase. Analysts generally believe that price action hinges on holding key support or breaking through overhead resistance. Regarding downside risks, Glassnode warns that a break below $104,000 could push prices down to the $93,000-$95,000 range. Conversely, a break above $114,000-$116,000 would reignite the upward trend. Most analysts are focused on the core support range of $107,000-$108,500. Axel Adler Jr. of CryptoQuant identifies $107,600 as a key monthly bull support level, while analysts at Daan Crypto Trades and Delphi Digital believe the price could potentially clear liquidity near $107,000. If this support level falls, Scient and EliZ suggest the next stop will be $105,000 or even $100,000. Currently, prices are trading around the $110,000 mark. Evanss6 believes that if bears fail to break below this level, a rebound is possible. However, the real resistance lies at $112,000, which is not only the biggest pain point for option expiration but also the upper limit of the consolidation that Daan Crypto Trades has repeatedly blocked. To resume the upward trend, Swissblock believes that it is necessary to break through the resistance zone of $113,600 to $115,600, and eventually challenge $118,000 and fill the CME gap of $114,000 to $117,000.

Ethereum's short-term support is focused on the $4215-4250 range. Man of Bitcoin notes that a break below the $4215 trendline could test $4071. Crypto Jobs believes $4250 is a watershed between bulls and bears, and a break below could trigger a correction to $4000-$4050. In the medium term, prices could see a deeper correction to around $3800, which he believes is a key demand zone and could be the starting point for the next bull market. Furthermore, $1.27 billion worth of Ethereum options are expiring today, with $4400 being the biggest pain point.

In the altcoin market, CARDS, a tokenized project based on Pokémon cards, surged nearly tenfold in two days, sparking heated discussion. Bitwise analyst Danny Nelson noted that this represents a significant crypto-transformation of real-valued asset (RWA), revolutionizing the massive but inefficient physical collectibles market like Pokémon cards. Its potential is comparable to the impact Polymarket has had on prediction markets. Meanwhile, World Liberty Financial ( WLFI ), a project backed by the Trump family, has been embroiled in controversy, plummeting to as low as $0.162 yesterday. During this period, Justin Sun claimed that $9 million in tokens, an early investor in WLFI, had been unreasonably frozen, and called on the team to release them.

2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, September 5)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

Bitcoin: $111,631 (+16.24% YTD), daily spot trading volume $38.17 billion
Ethereum: $4,339.110 (+32.29% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $28.716 billion
Fear of corruption index: 47 (neutral)
Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.165 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.1%, ETH 13.81%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: WLFI, ETH, XRP, BTC, SOL
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 50.82%/49.18%
Sector gains and losses: L2 rose 1.86%, GameFi rose 1.12%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 97,849 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$253 million, including BTC liquidation of US$46.06 million, ETH liquidation of US$81.97 million, and SOL liquidation of US$14.85 million.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($112,552.80), lower channel line ($110,324.03)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($4439.19), lower line ($4351.28)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3.ETF Flows (as of September 4)

Bitcoin ETF: -$227 million, with only BlackRock IBIT seeing net inflows
Ethereum ETF: -$167 million, 4 consecutive days of net outflows

4. Today's Outlook

Binance Alpha to Launch WORLDSHARDS (SHARDS) and Boost (BOOST) on September 5th
Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens at 8:00 AM on September 5th, representing 1.27% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $12.8 million.
MYX Finance (MYX) will unlock approximately 39.36 million tokens on September 6, worth approximately $50.14 million.
Jito (JTO) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens on September 7, worth approximately $23.46 million.
U.S. unemployment rate in August: previous value 4.20%, expected value 4.30% (September 5, 20:30)
U.S. August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls (10,000): previous value 7.3, expected value 7.5 (September 5, 20:30)

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization saw the biggest gains today: MemeCore (up 25.4%), Pump.fun (up 10.3%), Mantle (up 5.5%), POL (formerly MATIC) (up 5.1%), and FORM (up 4.5%).