1. Market Observation

In the current environment, the market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's future moves. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market generally expects a rate cut in September, with a 75% probability, but several Fed officials have expressed caution. Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Kansas City Fed President Schmid both believe there's no compelling reason to cut rates at this time unless there's clear data to support the decision, and they expressed concern about persistent inflation caused by tariffs. Atlanta Fed President Bostic, while maintaining his forecast for one rate cut this year, also emphasized the high uncertainty of the forecast. In contrast, former St. Louis Fed President and a candidate for the next Fed chairman, Bullard, has publicly called for a 100 basis point rate cut this year. Policymakers face a dilemma between a sluggish labor market and inflation above the 2% target. At this critical juncture, the Federal Reserve is embroiled in a political storm over allegations of mortgage fraud against Governor Lisa Cook, and the US Department of Justice has hinted at a possible investigation, adding further uncertainty to an already complex situation. The market is holding its breath for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual symposium, hoping to find clear signals about the future direction of monetary policy.

In response to the current volatility in the crypto market, HashKey Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding proposed his analytical framework. He pointed out that price declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum can be categorized into two distinct types: healthy pullbacks within an uptrend and trend reversals within a market cycle. Pullbacks are typically triggered by market deleveraging and are short-term adjustments. For example, the market experienced a sharp drop of 20%-30% in early 2021 before continuing its upward trend. Trend reversals, on the other hand, are more complex, often accompanied by a prolonged period of peaking and negative macroeconomic factors, such as the tightening regulations in 2018 and the global interest rate hike cycle in 2022. Jeffrey Ding emphasized that accurately distinguishing between these two types of declines is crucial for investors to assess the market's current stage and formulate appropriate strategies.

Regarding Bitcoin, the market is currently closely monitoring the effectiveness of key support levels. Several analysts have identified the $110,000 to $112,000 range as a significant support range. Analyst Ali believes that a break below $112,000 could push the price down to $108,000, while Daan Crypto Trades suggests a potential local low between $109,850 and $111,900. Altcoin Sherpa predicts a rebound around the $110,000 to $112,000 range, while Michael van de Poppe warns that a break below this range could lead to a further decline to $90,000 to $100,000. CryptoQuant analysis suggests that the current price weakness is linked to slowing demand and profit-taking. Data shows that apparent Bitcoin demand has fallen by two-thirds since July, and ETF purchases have fallen to their lowest level since April. However, analysts also believe that $110,000, as the realized price for on-chain traders, could provide solid support. Technically, Arslan Butt noted that Bitcoin has broken below a rising wedge pattern and faces resistance at its 50-day moving average of $116,103. Key price levels include: $108,000 and $105,150 after a break below $112,000; $120,900 and $124,450 if a breakout above the $116,000-$117,000 range is anticipated. Regarding the top of this cycle, Glassnode data suggests the bull market could peak within the next two to three months. Rekt Capital predicts a potential peak in September-October 2025, while KillaXBT predicts a potential $140,000 in the fourth quarter of this year, advising investors to consider exit strategies at that time.

Ethereum's price action is also being closely watched by analysts. Analyst Ali noted that Ethereum is currently consolidating within a descending channel between $4,342 and $4,219. A break above $4,342 could extend the upward trend to the $4,516-$4,623 range. Conversely, a break below $4,219 could trigger a decline to $4,061-$3,862. Meanwhile, analyst Open4profit observed a potential bullish breakout from a descending wedge and head-and-shoulders bottom pattern on Ethereum, with neckline resistance at approximately $4,380. However, a break below $4,160 would invalidate this bullish view. Notably, the market observed a significant capital rotation: a whale investor holding over $1.6 billion in assets converted $113 million worth of Bitcoin into Ethereum and established significant long positions in both spot and perpetual Ethereum, demonstrating their bullish outlook for the future of Ethereum. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes also revealed that he has re-purchased ETH and predicts it will reach $20,000 in this cycle.

Exchange-traded tokens have performed particularly well recently. BNB, for example, broke through $880 yesterday to reach a new all-time high, while OKB also hit a new all-time high today, reaching $258. These have seen gains exceeding 430% in the past two weeks. Huobi's exchange-traded token, $HT, has also performed strongly, rising 308% in 24 hours. Furthermore, yesterday, rapper Kanye West announced the issuance of the meme token, YZY. While BitMEX founders Arthur Hayes and Huang Licheng are optimistic about YZY's performance, its market capitalization has plummeted from a peak of approximately $3 billion to below $800 million.

2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, August 22)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $113,041 (+21.02% YTD), daily spot trading volume $31.895 billion

• Ethereum: $4,285.50 (+29.23% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $26.317 billion

• Fear of corruption index: 51 (neutral)

• Average gas: BTC: 1.03 sat/vB, ETH: 0.14 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 587%, ETH 13.5%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: AERO, XRP, ETH, API3, BTC

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.43%/50.57%

• Sector gains and losses: The crypto market suffered setbacks across the board, with the AI sector down 2.67% and the NFT sector down 2.23%.

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 78,155 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$220 million, including BTC liquidation of US$45.25 million, ETH liquidation of US$82.69 million, and SOL liquidation of US$10.79 million.

• BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($116,701.48), lower channel line ($114,390.56)

• ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($4283.42), lower channel line ($4198.60)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of August 21)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$194 million, 5 consecutive days of net outflow

• Ethereum ETF: +$288 million, turning into net inflow after four consecutive days of outflow

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha to List XPIN Network (XPIN) on August 22

• Binance Alpha to List FreeStyle Classic (FST) on August 24th

• SOON (SOON) will unlock approximately 41.88 million tokens at 4:30 PM on August 23rd, accounting for 13.04% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately $12.1 million.

The biggest gains in the top 100 by market capitalization today: OKB up 26.6%, Gate up 5%, Pendle up 4.6%, Morpho up 2.9%, and Mantle up 7.8%.

5. Hot News

• Hemi token economics released, 25% allocated to the team and core contributors

• The first buyer of YZY is suspected to be Naseem, the man who made 100 times profit from Trump

• Upbit launches AERO trading pairs against KRW, BTC, and USDT

• The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 75%.

• Verb Technology holds $780 million in assets, including $713 million in TON

• A whale who held BTC for 7 years sold about $235 million worth of BTC in 24 hours and switched to ETH.

• USV transferred $31.09 million in UNI to Coinbase Prime, still holding approximately $69.82 million

• The U.S. manufacturing PMI hit a 39-month high in August, and the composite PMI hit an 8-month high

• SOL Strategies announces treasury holdings exceeding 400,000 SOL

• FLock announced six major plans for the second half of the year: launching an AI Agent marketplace by the end of the year and an API platform in Q3.

• Aave first deployed to non-EVM blockchain Aptos

• Kanye West injects $34 million of YZY into the YZY liquidity pool

• Deribit: $4.8 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are about to expire, and ETH's biggest pain point is $4,250

• Wormhole plans to acquire Stargate at a high price and requests a suspension of the "LayerZero acquisition of STG" vote

• Coinbase Adds AWE, DOLO, FLOCK, LAYER, and SPX to Listing Roadmap

• Kaito launches Kaito Venture and plans to use its strategic reserve of 6 million KAITO to stimulate ecosystem development.

• Arthur Hayes is suspected of building a position of 7.66 million BIO tokens, with a total purchase of Ethereum ecosystem tokens worth $14.37 million.

This article is supported by HashKey Exchange , Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted crypto-fiat gateway. HashKey Exchange is committed to setting new standards for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform assurance.