Dialogue with Polymarket traders: Why bet $250,000 that Trump will not fire Powell?

A Polymarket trader, IvanCryptoSlav, has bet $250,000 that former President Trump will not fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, leveraging his political science background and market insights.
Ivan's "TACO" (Trump Always Gets Cold Shoulder) theory suggests Trump backs down when faced with real-world resistance, as seen in past events like the Ukraine ceasefire talks.
Financial market reactions are a key constraint; a tentative White House statement about firing Powell caused a 50-point S&P drop, prompting a quick retraction.
Ivan entered the trade months ago, increasing his position when rumors of Powell's firing surfaced, betting on Trump's hesitation due to market volatility.
Powell's refusal to resign or cut rates for political reasons strengthens Ivan's position, as Powell aims to emulate Volcker's legacy of resisting political pressure.
The trade remains high-risk, as Trump could act impulsively via tweet, but Ivan plans to hold or even buy more if prices drop further.
Market inefficiencies and Powell's predictability make this a strategic play, though Ivan acknowledges the unpredictability of Trump's actions.

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

German player IvanCryptoSlav, who trades under the username @BuckmySalls on the X platform, has accumulated profits of $841,770 on Polymarket using the knowledge he has learned from his political science degree.

Ivan's latest firm trade is a $250,000 bet that Jerome Powell can survive the continued pressure from the Trump camp to resign and continue to serve as Federal Reserve Chairman until the end of the year. The Oracle recently spoke with Ivan about why he’s betting big on the TACO (“Trump Always Gets Cold Shoulder”) trade.

This interview has been edited for brevity. All responses are personal.

You announced a big position that Trump won’t fire Jerome Powell. Tell us about that.

I have about $250,000 invested in various Powell-related markets. The biggest position is that Powell will stay on as Fed Chairman until the end of the year because that market is the most liquid. I am also in the market on whether Trump will fire him by the end of August.

My point is simple: Trump gets what he wants on issues where there is no real resistance. Look at the "big, beautiful" bill, I was betting it would pass by July 4th because even if there were a few opponents, Trump could pressure them to comply. He is the president.

But he can't get what he wants when there is resistance in the real world. This is where the "TACO theory" comes in. The Ukraine ceasefire agreement is an example. He said it was an easy deal, but I knew in my heart that he couldn't do it. But I made a lot of money in that market, even if my position was a bit wrong.

Powell's situation is similar, but the risk is greater. Trump can do it in theory, but the market reaction will be very violent, which will make him hesitate. All his advisers—Bessant, Lutnick, the CEOs—are putting pressure on him.

So you think the financial market reaction is the key constraint?

Right. Last Tuesday they sent out a tentative message about firing Powell, and the S&P fell 50 points in 30 minutes. That’s how they make policy now—send out a headline, see how the market reacts, and then make a decision. They retracted their previous statement in less than half an hour because the market plummeted.

The risk is that Trump might think, “Oh, a 50-point drop isn’t so bad.” But if he does, we could see a 150-point drop in the stock market. The unknown market reaction is enough to make him hesitant to act rashly.

Tell me about the timeline, when did you enter this trade?

Originally, I bought it as a bond a few months ago when the odds of "no" were between 85% and 90%. I didn't think Trump was crazy enough to crash the market. My position was small at the time.

Then some guy named Pulte - who seemed to be the head of the federal housing department - started tweeting non-stop that Powell should be fired. The market fell a little. I didn't react at the time.

On Friday or Saturday, Anna Paulina Luna broke the news that Powell would be fired. I thought it was nonsense - she didn't know anything, just another "Make America Great Again" cannon. But apparently Trump went around asking House members with a draft of firing Powell whether he should do it. Of course they all said yes. There are no decent Republicans in the House anymore.

That's when I started buying more. The price fell to about 80%.

Source: Polymarket

Then the real test came on Tuesday?

Yes, things took a sharp turn for the worse on Tuesday. The White House said it was "considering" firing Powell, which was a typical Trump tentative statement. I added to my position decisively, hoping that this was just a test. I didn't expect them to retract their remarks so quickly, but it was true.

Right now I have a heavy position. If the market can return to the 90s, I don't mind reducing my position, but the market is not yet where I want it to be.

Do you think Polymarket traders are becoming more aware of the “TACO trade,” the pattern of Trump backing down?

Of course. You see it in traditional markets, too: the S&P 500 (SPX) is going up regardless, even though things are worse than they were in April and tariffs are all but certain.

The problem is that Trump keeps doing the same thing over and over again. The key for me is to hope that Bessant and others continue to tell him it’s not worth it. He’ll eventually get his way with interest rates anyway, so why crash the market?

But at some point, things will go wrong. Trump feels like he can do whatever he wants. Everyone sees through his game, but no one takes his headlines seriously anymore, and they’ll back off.

It sounds like you think he could still be fired. What do you think the odds are of that happening? Will you sell before the market clears up?

If prices can get back to the 90s, I might reduce my position. But it depends on timing. If it's October and there's only one FOMC meeting left and the market is quiet, I probably won't sell. But if prices quickly get to the 90s in August and this investigation peters out, I might sell.

The FOMC meeting is critical because the rate decision probably irritates Trump more than anything else. He was also irritated by the whole Epstein documents thing last week. So the Powell firing thing is partly a diversionary tactic, but he is irritated.

Despite all the threats of firing, multiple market indicators for rate cuts have been pretty steady. Do you base your stance on these or other indicators?

There is a pretty clear inefficiency in the market for rate cuts. You can make money on the swing trades because Powell is actually very easy to read. He just walks the talk. He keeps saying they rely on data and they get the data every day.

I am 100% sure of two things: Powell will not cut rates for political reasons and he will not resign. He will only leave if he is fired and then fight it in court. But he will not resign of his own accord.

What is Powell's psychological state? After his tentative remarks didn't work, Trump's allies are pressuring him to report him to the Justice Department for lies about the new Fed building. Will he just give in to the pressure?

After reading Nick Timilaus' book on Powell, I have a better understanding of his psychological state and I have no doubt about it: Powell will not resign no matter what. They have to get rid of him. Resigning would mean admitting guilt, and he has a mission. He once said that he hopes his political legacy will be like Volcker's, who dared to fight political pressure and did not give in.

This is very annoying to Trump because there is one person in America he cannot push around. Powell has not said anything publicly, but he is fighting Trump with his actions.

If Trump tweeted today that "I am going to fire Powell", would you try to sell? Or would you hold on and hope that Powell can keep his job somehow?

I probably wouldn't sell. I am too overweight in the market. If I think the bet still has a chance of winning, I might consider buying more at a low price. On Polymarket, a good strategy is to provide liquidity when no one else wants to trade.

The market often soars on headlines and then falls back. It's rare that a headline becomes fact immediately. I'd rather he doesn't do that. If he does, it would put a big loss on my P&L for the year. But I've had a good year, so I don't mind adding to my position.

Any final thoughts on the risks here?

This is the most dangerous of all Trump-related trades because he personally dislikes Powell and it's too easy to manipulate. He won't annex Greenland or occupy Gaza, but firing Powell may be just a tweet away.

The worst case scenario is that the market remains the same: the bulls remain high because the bill has to pass Congress, they question Powell, Trump is talking nonsense, and the market has no catalyst for a rebound. I'm a bit torn now. That's why I don't mind a smaller position. But for now, I'll just have to bite the bullet and hold on.