Trading time: Bitcoin is wary of the $108,000 liquidation trap, while Ethereum faces a battle to defend $4,000 support.

Bitcoin faces a potential drop toward the $107,000–$110,000 range, with over $2 billion in long liquidation pressure noted between $106,000 and $108,000. Ethereum has declined for 10 consecutive days, testing the $4,200 support level; a break below could see it fall to $4,070 or even $3,500.

Over $1.66 billion in positions were liquidated in 24 hours, with 402,447 traders affected. BTC and ETH led liquidations at $280 million and $470 million, respectively.
Market sentiment is neutral (Fear & Greed Index: 44). Analysts suggest Bitcoin may need to clear the $106k–$108k range before a significant upward move.
Altcoins, including ASTER and AVNT, corrected sharply. BNB hit a new high above $1,080, but ecosystem tokens like CAKE declined.
Macro factors, including upcoming U.S. PCE data and Fed speeches, are expected to increase market volatility.
ETF flows show net inflows for Bitcoin ($223 million) and Ethereum ($47.75 million), primarily into BlackRock funds.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Global financial markets are currently experiencing characteristics similar to those of the 1999 dot-com bubble, with liquidity driving the market, replacing fundamentals. A Goldman Sachs trader noted that despite Moody's models projecting a 48% probability of a recession over the next 12 months, market participants have shifted to chasing liquidity, adjusting positions, and price trends, fostering a widespread mindset of "currency devaluation is less important than consumption." This shift in sentiment has propelled US stocks into a speculative phase. Consumer spending willingness resonates with high stock market exposure. Combined with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, this has created a market dynamic of "fear turning to fear of FOMO." He predicts that the economy and markets may experience a surge in the next three to six months.

Of note, the economic conflict signals stemming from declining cyclical industry pressures and the expansion of sectors like technology and AI. The impasse between the two parties in the US over government spending has heightened policy uncertainty, with the risk of a federal government shutdown and disagreements over healthcare policies potentially acting as short-term destabilizing factors. Against this backdrop, the anticipated easing of liquidity, fueled by the Federal Reserve's preemptive rate cuts, is boosting external demand for export-oriented economies like China through overseas capital expenditures. Positive signals such as the positive month-over-month PPI reading in China are also supporting the economic recovery. This week, the market will closely monitor the upcoming PCE inflation data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials; these macroeconomic factors are expected to exacerbate market volatility.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin continued to decline after the September 18th interest rate meeting. Analyst CrypNuevo predicted that the price would test the liquidity pool range of $119,600 to $123,600, with secondary support at $114,200. A minor pullback could potentially reach $112,000, and recommended increasing long orders at key levels. Donald Dean suggested that if trendline support holds, target prices would reach $123,000 and then the golden ratio level of $131,000. Crypto Seth noted that Bitcoin saw $670 million in short liquidations at $120,000 and suggested a potential pullback to $114,000 first. Meanwhile, some analysts expressed caution. Jason Pizzino observed that the price fell after forming a double top pattern. Bulls are currently focusing on the $112,000-$113,000 support level. If this level breaks, bears could push the price further down to the $107,000-$110,000 range. Analyst Ted even pointed out that there is more than $2 billion in long liquidation pressure in the range of $106,000 to $108,000, and the market may start to rise sharply after clearing this area.

Ethereum has been declining for 10 days since nearing $4,800 on September 13th. Despite a slight rise in the days leading up to the September 18th interest rate meeting, it has now fallen below $4,300. Donald Dean believes that if the $4,200 support level holds, a rebound to $5,766 is possible. If it falls below, $4,070 will become the next support level. Analyst Ted offered an extremely optimistic long-term forecast, believing that global M2 supply is sufficient to support Ethereum at the peak of this cycle, reaching $18,000 to $20,000, but that liquidity at $4,000 may be swept away in the short term. Analyst Krugman warned of an extremely bearish scenario, predicting a 15% pullback to the first major support level of $3,500, while a full retracement could result in a 45% drop. Notably, on-chain activity indicates that an address associated with Trend Research recently redeemed 16,800 ETH from Aave and deposited it into Binance.

In the altcoin market, ASTER, after rising for several consecutive days, hit $2 before retracing to $1.45. AVNT, part of the Base ecosystem, also experienced some decline after reaching a record high of $2.6. This correction also affected the on-chain contract market, with tokens like SUN, DRIFT, and PERP all experiencing price drops. Furthermore, BNB saw strong gains last week, rising 13% and reaching a new high of $1,083 over the weekend. However, tokens within its ecosystem, such as CAKE and THENA, failed to rise in tandem and instead collectively declined during BNB's price correction today.

2. Key Data (as of 2:00 PM HKT, September 22)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

Bitcoin: $112,500 (+20.4% YTD), daily spot volume $26.32 billion
Ethereum: $4,114 (+24.37% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $23.93 billion
Fear of corruption index: 44 (neutral)
Average gas: BTC: 1.11 sat/vB, ETH: 0.19 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.19%, ETH 13.35%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: SUN, AVNT, WLFI, XRP, ETH
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 45.26%/54.74%
Sector gains and losses: Meme sector fell 13.2%, AI sector fell 12.5%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 402,447 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$1.663 billion, including US$280 million in BTC, US$470 million in ETH, and US$93.24 million in SOL.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($116,170.70), lower channel line ($113,870.29)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($4533.24), lower line ($4443.47)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of September 19)

Bitcoin ETF: +$223 million, only BlackRock ETF IBIT achieved net inflow
Ethereum ETF: +$47.7524 million, with only BlackRock ETF ETHA achieving net inflows

4. Today's Outlook

Korea Blockchain Week 2025 will be held from September 22nd to 28th
The DeAgentAI Genesis airdrop has been launched, and the main staking event will start on September 22nd.
Binance HODLer Airdrop Launches 0G (0G), Spot Trading Launches on September 22
Ethereum Fusaka mainnet will undergo Sepolia fork on September 22
Binance Alpha and Binance Futures will list Bless (BLESS) on September 23rd
Binance will delist ALPHAUSDT perpetual contracts on September 23
Yala announces recovery plan: Illegally minted YU tokens will be destroyed on September 23
Kaito Al will launch the Novastro token XNL community sale on Capital Launchpad on September 22nd.
SPACE ID (ID) will unlock 72.65 million tokens on September 22, worth approximately $13 million.
SOON (SOON) will unlock approximately 15.21 million tokens on September 23, accounting for 4.74% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately US$5.3 million.

The biggest declines among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: Aster fell 20.2%, Pump.fun fell 17%, SPX6900 fell 17.8%, Sonic (formerly FTM) fell 17.2%, and Conflux fell 16.9%.