ETH fell below $4,100, and the market began to look bearish. Will there be further gains?

The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant pullback, with Ethereum (ETH) leading the decline by falling below $4,100 and Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to around $113,000. This downturn was driven by several key factors:

Market Performance: ETH saw a maximum 24-hour drop of 5%, erasing nearly all gains from the previous week. Other major assets like SOL and altcoins (DOGE, PEPE) also fell between 7%-10%.
Liquidations: Over $452 million in positions were liquidated in 24 hours, with $373 million from long positions. ETH was the hardest hit, with $175 million in liquidations.
Whale Activity and ETF Outflows: Whales transferred over 34,000 ETH (approx. $140 million) to exchanges, increasing selling pressure. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $197 million, the second-highest on record.
Macroeconomic Pressures: The Federal Reserve's hawkish tone and an upcoming Treasury General Account (TGA) replenishment, expected to drain $500-$600 billion in liquidity, contributed to market uncertainty.

Analyst Perspectives on Future Trends:

Santiment suggests extreme bearish retail sentiment could signal a potential market reversal.
Delphi Digital warns that tighter liquidity could particularly impact high-beta assets like ETH.
Greeks.Live notes BTC is range-bound between $112,000-$130,000, with traders awaiting a breakout signal.
Fed Watch: Opinions are split on Powell's upcoming Jackson Hole speech. Some fear he may dampen rate cut expectations (BMO), while others (Tom Lee) believe it could be interpreted as dovish, triggering a rebound.
Long-Term Outlook: Bernstein remains bullish, raising Bitcoin's price target to $150,000-$200,000 by 2026 and expecting the bull market to continue until 2027.

In summary, short-term pressure remains due to outflows, whale selling, and macro uncertainty. However, extreme pessimism and potential dovish signals from the Fed could provide a foundation for a rebound, though a clear direction awaits confirmation from key events and BTC's ability to stabilize.

Original | Odaily Planet Daily

Author | Ethan

Over the past two days, the crypto market has pulled back again, with mainstream currencies falling below key support levels one after another, with ETH leading the decline.

OKX market data shows that BTC fell to a low of US$112,500 and is now trading at US$113,580, with the maximum drop of more than 3% in 24 hours; ETH's decline was even more severe, hitting a low of US$4,062 during the day, with a maximum drop of 5%, and is now temporarily trading at US$4,180; in the past 48 hours, ETH's cumulative pullback has exceeded 8% , almost swallowing up all of last week's gains.

In terms of other assets, SOL briefly fell below the $176 mark and is now trading at $180.51; high-Beta altcoins such as DOGE, PEPE, and TRUMP also pulled back simultaneously, with declines concentrated in the 7%-10% range.

In terms of sectors, according to SoSoValue data, as of August 20, the PayFi sector, which performed relatively strongly yesterday, fell 5.65% today, of which XRP fell 5.52% and TEL fell 7.17%; the Layer 1 sector fell 3.35%, and Cardano (ADA) fell as much as 8.83%; the Layer 2 sector fell 3.75%, and Mantle (MNT) rose 5.51% against the trend during the session; the DeFi sector fell 4.25%, and Lido DAO (LDO) rose slightly by 1.01%; the Meme sector fell 5.25% as a whole, of which MemeCore (M) rose 6.91% against the trend.

In the derivatives market, according to Coinglass data, the total amount of liquidations in the past 24 hours reached $452 million , of which $373 million was caused by long positions. BTC liquidations amounted to approximately $102 million , while ETH liquidations reached $175 million , making it the hardest hit area.

Lookonchain monitoring shows that in the past 12 hours alone, multiple whale addresses have transferred more than 34,000 ETH to centralized exchanges, with a total value of approximately US$140 million . The concentrated reduction of holdings by whales is exacerbating market panic.

There's also been no clear support from the funding side. According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (August 19th), Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $197 million , the second-highest on record. BlackRock and Fidelity's two major ETFs each saw outflows exceeding $80 million .

Bitcoin and Ethereum have been testing key support levels for two consecutive days, sending market sentiment sharply downward. Capital outflows, whales reducing their holdings, and ETFs are all collided. Amidst growing investor disagreement, is this a temporary correction or the prelude to a deeper correction?

Odaily Planet Daily will sort out the latest views from on-chain data platforms, institutional investment research and traders for readers' reference.

Bitcoin’s decline has not yet stabilized, how will Ethereum perform in the future?

Santiment: Retail investor sentiment turns extremely bearish, which may signal a market reversal

On-chain data platform Santiment said that after BTC fell below $113,000, retail trader sentiment turned sharply pessimistic in the past 24 hours, hitting the lowest level since the geopolitical conflict-induced sell-off on June 22.

Historical experience shows that extreme pessimism is often one of the important signals of a potential rebound, which may provide long-term investors with investment opportunities.

Despite ETH leading the decline, the main trend of the crypto market is still Bitcoin. When BTC fell below $113,000, institutions also began to give their own predictions.

Delphi Digital: TGA redemption is expected to drain $500 billion to $600 billion in market liquidity

Delphi Digital reported that the U.S. Treasury will initiate a Treasury General Account (TGA) replenishment in the coming weeks, aiming to remove approximately $500 billion to $600 billion in liquidity from the market over two months. Unlike previous rounds of replenishment, this round of replenishment lacks a buffer: the Federal Reserve is still withdrawing funds through quantitative tightening (QT), the reverse repurchase facility (RRP) is nearly exhausted, banks are subject to capital rules and book loss restrictions, and overseas buying from China and Japan has significantly subsided. In other words, this round of financing will directly withdraw funds from market liquidity.

This shift is particularly sensitive to the crypto market. Historical data shows that during 2021, when liquidity was easing, stablecoin supply continued to expand alongside the recovery of TGA. However, in 2023, stablecoin supply shrank by over $5 billion, leading to a crypto market stagnation. The liquidity environment in 2025 is expected to be even tighter. If stablecoin supply shrinks again, high-beta assets like ETH could face even greater declines relative to BTC unless they are hedged by ETFs or corporate inflows.

Greeks.Live: BTC trend is divergent, focus on the $112,000-$130,000 range

Options analysis platform Greeks.Live pointed out in a community briefing that there are obvious differences in the market regarding the current trend of BTC: some traders believe that it is weak in the short term and there is still room for further decline; others believe that long liquidation is nearing its end and a rebound is about to start.

From a technical perspective, BTC remains range-bound, with the key levels of interest being between $112,000 and $130,000. In terms of options strategies, traders are generally adopting a "double sell" strategy in the $112,000-$120,000 range, awaiting a market breakout signal.

BMO senior strategist: Powell may "dampen" the market's optimistic expectations of a September rate cut

Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said that although the market is currently betting on an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, and there are even 325,000 options betting on a 50 basis point rate cut, the real risk lies in Powell's speech on Friday "pouring cold water" and hitting market expectations for radical easing.

If the Fed maintains its hawkish stance, it may trigger broader volatility in risky assets, and the crypto market, including BTC, may continue to be under pressure.

Arthur Hayes: "I can't judge" Powell's speech, choose to avoid the sharp edge for now

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that he has "absolutely no idea how the market will react" to the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, so he chose to "enjoy the end of summer" and not participate in excessive predictions for the time being.

Although this statement seems relaxed, it also reflects the current market's extremely high uncertainty about macroeconomic variables and the divergence of investors' expectations.

Tom Lee: His speech may be interpreted as "dovish", and the US stock and crypto markets are expected to recover

Tom Lee, chairman of the BitMine board, said that most institutional investors expect Powell to maintain a hawkish tone in Jackson Hole, but because the market has taken this as a precondition, the speech may be interpreted as a "dovish one," thereby driving a temporary rebound in U.S. stocks and risky assets after the speech.

For BTC, this means there is a window for technical repair after a short-term decline.

Bernstein: The bull market may continue until 2027, and Bitcoin's target is $200,000

Bernstein analysts released a research report saying that the current cycle of crypto bull market is driven by US policy support and increased institutional participation, and is expected to continue until 2027.

Among them, the price target of Bitcoin in the next year was raised to the range of 150,000 to 200,000 US dollars , becoming an important pricing reference for medium and long-term investors.

Summary: Short-term pressure remains unresolved, and rebound signals await confirmation

The Federal Reserve's hawkish tone roiled market sentiment, leading to a collective pullback in crypto assets due to multiple factors, including capital outflows and whales reducing their holdings. ETH fell below $4,100, BTC dipped to $113,000, and margin calls in the derivatives market expanded.

Despite significant short-term pressure, Santiment data indicates that retail investor sentiment has reached extreme pessimism, which historically often corresponds to the starting point of a market rebound. With Powell's upcoming key speech, whether BTC can stabilize its decline may become a key signal for market direction.