1. Market Observation
Trump hinted on Tuesday that he "probably won't" seek a third term, and that current Vice President Cyrus Vance is the "most likely" Republican nominee for president in 2028, but he stressed that it's "too early" to make a final decision. Against this backdrop, Trump said he would decide on the new Federal Reserve board this week, narrowing the field to four candidates for the next chairman, including former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. He also plans to announce new tariffs on pharmaceuticals and chips within the next week.
On the macroeconomic level, former Treasury Secretaries Paulson and Timothy Geithner jointly warned that the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market faces multiple threats from unsustainable fiscal paths and political systemic problems. Geithner noted that while the current 10-year Treasury yield remains relatively moderate, fundamental pillars of support, such as the rule of law and the independence of the Federal Reserve, are facing unprecedented challenges. This concern was exacerbated by President Trump's dismissal of the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), raising market doubts about the credibility of official data and posing a potential risk to the $2.1 trillion market for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which are linked to the CPI. However, weak employment data has led to widespread expectations on Wall Street that the Fed's policy is nearing a turning point. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and other institutions predict that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates as early as September, potentially by 25 or even 50 basis points, with the ultimate policy rate potentially falling below 3%.
In the digital asset sector, Hong Kong's Web 3.0 strategy is showing positive results. Jeffrey Ding, Chief Analyst at HashKey, noted that Hong Kong-listed companies are entering Web 3.0 through financing, not only driving financial innovation, broadening financing channels, and improving market liquidity through applications such as RWA and DeFi, but also optimizing their supply chain management and operational efficiency through the integration of blockchain technology, thereby enhancing their global competitiveness. This trend is attracting global capital and talent, laying a solid foundation for Hong Kong to build a mature and regulated digital asset ecosystem and become a Web 3.0 hub.
Bitcoin has fallen below the short-term support range of $115,000 to $118,000 over the past two weeks, leading to the liquidation of over $1 billion in leveraged long positions. Analyst Material Indicators warns that due to weak buying support above $110,000, prices could fall further to the $109,000 area. Analysts AlphaBTC and KillaXBT also believe the market may test the $112,000 support level, a break of which could trigger a deeper correction. KillaXBT plans to establish a long position in the $111,953 to $110,649 range, with a stop-loss above the monthly opening price of $115,600. Analyst Murphy also emphasizes that $112,000 represents the key lower support level of the MVRV pricing channel. If it holds, the rebound high could reach the upper band of $124,000. Currently, the $117,000 to $118,000 level represents the most critical resistance level. The ideal trend is for the price to consolidate between $112,000 and $117,000, building momentum for a subsequent breakout. QCP Capital also believes the recent pullback is more of a correction, with the options market already seeing bets on a price rebound to $124,000. Looking at the longer term, analyst Arndxt, based on a liquidity model and historical halving cycles, predicts that Bitcoin's price could peak at $135,000 to $150,000 around September 2025.
Ethereum's price rebounded to around $3,650, driven by continued institutional interest. Despite a record $465 million net outflow from its ETF on August 4, on-chain data shows that institutions and whale addresses continue to actively buy ETH through over-the-counter transactions. Notably, four multi-sig wallets controlled by a single entity received over $363 million worth of ETH over the past two days.
Pump.fun's trading volume and token minting over the past 24 hours surpassed Bonk.fun for the first time in a long time. Data shows that the platform purchased approximately 8,740 SOL equivalents of $PUMP over the past six days, accounting for 102% of its total revenue. Pump.fun co-founder Alon stated that meme coins like Fartcoin have achieved success through pure community consensus, while other projects within the Pump.fun ecosystem, such as $TROLL, $USDUC, and $TOKABU, have performed strongly. Perhaps influenced by this, tokens like Fartcoin, TROLL, and PUMP have all ranked high in trading volume over the past 24 hours, with TROLL's token seeing a nearly 100% increase in 24-hour trading. SPARK, a fast-paced platform on Pump, peaked at $18.8 million last night before falling back to around $10 million. Meanwhile, the decentralized derivatives protocol MYX has surged 16-fold over the past seven days, reaching a record high of over $2.12 this morning, a 72% increase over the past 24 hours. On-chain data suggests that its price surge is likely due to manipulation linked to spot and futures trading. It is worth noting that China’s Ministry of State Security issued a document warning about the risks of collecting biometric data. Although it did not name any specific entities, its description is highly consistent with the Worldcoin project.
2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, August 6)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $113,525 (+21.98% YTD), daily spot trading volume $36.389 billion
Ethereum: $3,582.39 (+8.91% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $27.522 billion
Fear of corruption index: 54 (neutral)
Average gas: BTC: 0.23 sat/vB, ETH: 0.40 Gwei
Market share: BTC 61.1%, ETH 11.8%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, ETH, BTC, GAS, SOL
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 48.13%/51.87%
Sector gains and losses: NFT sector fell 5.56%; SocialFi sector fell 4.89%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 137,141 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$358 million, including BTC liquidation of US$56.7791 million, ETH liquidation of US$114 million, and SOL liquidation of US$17.53 million.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($116,574.45), lower channel line ($114,266.04)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($3637.20), lower channel line ($3565.17)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF flows (as of August 5)
Bitcoin ETF: -$196 million, 4 consecutive days of net outflow
Ethereum ETF: +$73,222,200
4. Today's Outlook
Linea, the Ethereum-based on-chain DEX, will launch REX on August 6.
Binance Alpha and Futures Platforms to Launch INFINIT (IN) on August 7th
Heroes of Mavia (MAVIA) will unlock approximately 11.89 million tokens at 8:00 AM on August 6th, representing 23.03% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $1.9 million.
EigenCloud (formerly EigenLayer) will unlock approximately 1.29 million tokens at 3:00 AM on August 6th, representing 0.40% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $1.4 million.
Jito (JTO) will unlock approximately 11 million tokens on August 7, worth approximately $21 million.
The biggest gainers in the top 100 by market capitalization today: Pump.fun up 11.5%, Saros up 4.1%, Curve DAO up 2.2%, HTX DAO up 1.9%, and Ethena up 1%.
5. Hot News
Hack VC has transferred $2.157 million worth of MYX received from the airdrop claim contract.
Jito proposes allocating 100% of block engine fees to the DAO treasury
Changpeng Zhao files for dismissal of $1.76 billion claim filed by FTX Trust
Ethereum's on-chain recovery in July saw transaction volume approach $240 billion
Pexi's SOL holdings exceeded 2 million, with a market value of over $300 million
This article is supported by HashKey Exchange , Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted crypto-fiat gateway. HashKey Exchange is committed to setting new standards for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform assurance.
